Three dimensional dynamical and chemical modelling of the upper atmosphere

Improved versions of a global 3-dimensional dynamical-chemical model of the stratospheric ozone layer were developed and utilized. The major accomplishments are described

A semi-empirical representation of the temporal variation of total greenhouse gas levels expressed as equivalent levels of carbon dioxide

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).In order to examine the underlying longer-term trends in greenhouse gases, that are driven for example by anthropogenic emissions or climate change, it is useful to remove the recurring effects of natural cycles and oscillations on the sources and/or sinks of those gases that have strong biological (e.g., CO2, CH4, N2O) and/or photochemical (e.g. CH4) influences on their global atmospheric cycles. We use global observations to calculate monthly estimates of greenhouse gas levels expressed as CO2 equivalents, and then fit these estimates to a semi-empirical model that includes the natural seasonal, QBO, and ENSO variations, as well as a second order polynomial expressing longer-term variations. We find that this model provides a reasonably accurate fit to the observation-based monthly data. We also show that this semiempirical model has some predictive capability; that is it can be used to provide a reasonably reliable estimate of CO2 equivalents at the current time using validated observations that lag real time by a few to several months.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

An analysis of observations of gravity waves and turbulence at Millstone Hill

Issued as Progress report and Final report, Project no. G-35-68

Three-dimensional dynamical and chemical modelling of the upper atmosphere

Progress in coding a 3-D upper atmospheric model and in modeling the ozone perturbation resulting from the shuttle booster exhaust is reported. A time-dependent version of a 2-D model was studied and the sulfur cycle in the stratosphere was investigated. The role of meteorology in influencing stratospheric composition measurements was also studied

Improvements in the perturbation simulations of the global reference atmospheric model

The Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) program includes the capability for simulating pseudo-random perturbations in density, temperature, pressure, or wind components along a simulated reentry trajectory or other path through the atmosphere. Some concerns were expressed by GRAM users, however, that the mean-square perturbation gradients may be too large for small values of the vertical separation Delta z. The present GRAM perturbation simulations, based on a one-step autoregressive model, yield a power spectrum versus wavenumber k which is proportional to k sup -2 at high wavenumbers. This feature also produces mean-square perturbation differences which are directly proportional to Delta z, and mean-square perturbation gradients which are inversely proportional to Delta z. Thus, root-mean-square gradients, (Delta f/Delta z) sub rms, increase with decreasing Delta a as Delta z sup -1/2. A simple modification to GRAM is suggested which overcomes this problem, i.e., which produce root-mean-square gradient that remain bound as Delta z approaches zero. Possible applications of more sophisticated simulation approaches, e.g., second order autoregressive models, or fractal model techniques, were also explored briefly but found to yield improvements which appear too small to justify their considerable added complexity for use in the GRAM programs

Prediction of Dynamical Impact of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone

Under this grant one paper by Lou et al and a second paper by Kindler et al is in journal. These papers both describe N2O simulations using UKMO and Goddard assimilated wind fields and comparisons of the results against CLAES N2O observations. The results of these studies indicate some of the difficulties of using the assimilated wind fields, and the vertical motions in particular, in simulating long term variations in trace gases in the stratosphere. On the other hand, qualitatively the results possess a number of features of the observations even on time scales longer than a month or two. More recently we have started to examine results obtained using NCAR models a 3D version of which also uses the UKMO assimilated wind fields. Calculations have already been made with their 2D model with emphasis on the seasonal cycle in ozone at high latitudes in the upper stratosphere. Simultaneously trends in stratospheric ozone have been studied in detail from SAGE and UARS observations. Moreover, observations of the trends since 1984 do not show a significant interhemispheric asymmetry in upper stratospheric ozone. Therefore any asymmetry in the trends must have occurred prior to the mid-eighties and would most likely have been related to interhemispheric differences in upper stratospheric temperature trends. Another activity has been to compile an ozone climatology from UARS and SAGE observations. This effort has been performed as part of a UARS team activity to assemble a climatology of all the UARS long-lived trace gases for 1992-1993

Inverse modeling of the global methyl chloride sources

Inverse modeling using the Bayesian least squares method is applied to better constrain the sources and sinks of atmospheric methyl chloride (CH3Cl) using observations from seven surface stations and eight aircraft field experiments. We use a three-dimensional global chemical transport model, the GEOS-Chem, as the forward model. Up to 39 parameters describing the continental/hemispheric and seasonal dependence of the major sources of CH3Cl are used in the inversion. We find that the available surface and aircraft observations cannot constrain all the parameters, resulting in relatively large uncertainties in the inversion results. By examining the degrees of freedom in the inversion Jacobian matrix, we choose a reduced set of parameters that can be constrained by the observations while providing valuable information on the sources and sinks. In particular, we resolve the seasonal dependence of the biogenic and biomass-burning sources for each hemisphere. The in situ aircraft measurements are found to provide better constraints on the emission sources than surface measurements. The a posteriori emissions result in better agreement with the observations, particularly at southern high latitudes. The a posteriori biogenic and biomass-burning sources decrease by 13 and 11% to 2500 and 545 Gg yr-1, respectively, while the a posteriori net ocean source increases by about a factor of 2 to 761 Gg yr-1. The decrease in biomass-burning emissions is largely due to the reduction in the emissions in seasons other than spring in the Northern Hemisphere. The inversion results indicate that the biogenic source has a clear winter minimum in both hemispheres, likely reflecting the decrease of biogenic activity during that season. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union

SAGE measurements of the stratospheric aerosol dispersion and loading from the Soufriere Volcano

Explosions of the Soufriere volcano on the Caribbean Island of St. Vincent reduced two major stratospheric plumes which the stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment (SAGE) satellite tracked to West Africa and the North Atlantic Ocean. The total mass of the stratospheric ejecta measured is less than 0.5% of the global stratospheric aerosol burden. No significant temperature or climate perturbation is expected. It is found that the movement and dispersion of the plumes agree with those deduced from high altitude meteorological data and dispersion theory. The stratospheric aerosol dispersion and loading from the Soufrier volcano was measured

A 3-D model study of ozone eddy transport in the winter stratosphere

Calculations of the Northward eddy fluxes of stratospheric ozone in a three-dimensional chemical-dynamical model are discussed. It is shown that, although approximately 50 percent of the zonal mean flux is produced by stationary planetary wavenumbers 1 and 2, the wintertime flux due to the chemical eddies is substantially underestimated when a quasi-linear representation is used

SAGE 2-Umkehr case study of ozone differences and aerosol effects from October 1984 to April 1989

A comparison of 1262 cases of coincident ozone profiles derived from 666 Umkehrs at 17 different stations and 901 SAGE 2 profiles within 1000 km and 12 hours between October 1984 and April 1989 indicates the following layer percentage differences with 2-sigma error bars: layer three 14.6 plus/minus 3.3 percent, layer four 17.6 plus/minus 1.1 percent, layer five -1.3 plus/minus 0.5 percent, layer six -5.7 plus/minus 0.7 percent, layer seven -1.0 plus/minus 0.7 percent, layer eight 4.2 plus/minus 0.7 percent, and layer nine 6.8 plus/minus 1.2 percent. Comparing SAGE 2-Umkehr differences to SAGE 1 version 5.5-Umkehr differences shows SAGE 2 higher than or equal to SAGE 1 relative to Umkehr in all layers except layer three. Adjustment for this bias would produce trends derived from SAGE 2-SAGE 1 differences and Umkehr observations in the 1980s more nearly equal to each other in layers six, seven, and eight. A possible explanation of these differences is a systematic shift in the reference altitude between SAGE 1 and SAGE 2, but there is no independent evidence of this. While the shape of the vertical profile of differences at 17 individual Umkehr stations (mostly in mid-latitudes) is generally consistent at all stations except at Poker Flat, Seoul, and Lauder, significant variation does exists among the stations. The profile of mean difference is similar to previously observed differences between Umkehr and both SAGE 2 and SBUV and also to an eigenvector analysis, but with site-dependent amplitude discrepancies. Because of the close correspondence of stratospheric aerosol optical depth at the SAGE 2-measured 0.525 micron wavelength and the extrapolated 0.32 Umkehr wavelength determined in this study, we use the 0.525 micron data to determine the aerosol effect of Umkehr profiles. The aerosol errors to the Umkehr ozone amounts in percent ozone amount per 0.01 stratospheric aerosol optical depth range from plus 2 percent in layer six to minus 3 percent in layer nine. These results agree with previous theoretical and empirical studies within their respective error bounds in layers nine, eight, and five. The result in layer six differs significantly from previous works. In view of the fact that SAGE 2 and Umkehr produce different ozone retrievals in layers eight and nine and because the intra-layer correlation of SAGE 2 ozone and aerosol in layers eight and nine in non-zero, one must exercise some caution in attributing the entire SAGE 2-Umkehr differences in the upper layers to an aerosol effect