Results of the meteorological model WRF-ARW over Catalonia, using different parameterizations of convection and cloud microphysics

The meteorological model WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting - Advanced ResearchWRF) is a new generation model that has a worldwide growing community of users. In theframework of a project that studies the feasibility of implementing it operationally at the Mete-orological Service of Catalonia, a verification of the forecasts produced by the model in severalcases of precipitation observed over Catalonia has been carried out. Indeed, given the impor-tance of precipitation forecasts in this area, one of the main objectives was to study the sensitivityof the model in different configurations of its parameterizations of convection and cloud micro-physics. In this paper, we present the results of this verification for two domains, a 36-km gridsize and one of 12 km grid size, unidirectionally nested to the previous one. In the externaldomain, the evaluation was based on the analysis of the main statistical parameters (ME andRMSE) for temperature, relative humidity, geopotential and wind, and it has been determinedthat the combination using the Kain-Fritsch convective scheme with the WSM5 microphysicalscheme has provided the best results. Then, with this configuration set for the external domain,some forecasts at the nested domain have been done, by combining different convection andcloud microphysics schemes, leading to the conclusion that the most accurate configuration isthe one combining the convective parameterization of Kain-Fritsch and the Thompson micro-physics scheme

An mHealth intervention for the treatment of patients with an eating disorder: A multicenter randomized controlled trial

Objective: The current multicentre randomized controlled trial assessed the clinicalefficacy of a combined mHealth intervention for eating disorders (EDs) based on cog-nitive behavioral therapy (CBT).Method: A total of 106 ED patients from eight different public and private mentalhealth services in Spain were randomly assigned to two parallel groups. Patients ofthe experimental group (N = 53) received standard face-to-face CBT plus a mobileintervention through an application called “TCApp,” which provides self-monitoringand an online chat with the therapist. The control group (N = 53) received standard face-to-face CBT only. Patients completed self-report questionnaires on ED symp-tomatology, anxiety, depression, and quality of life, before and after treatment.Results: Significant reductions in primary and secondary outcomes were observedfor participants of both groups, with no differences between groups. Results alsosuggested that the frequency with which patients attended their referral mentalhealth institution after the intervention was lower for patients in the experimentalgroup than for those in the control group.Discussion: The current study showed that CBT can help to reduce symptoms relat-ing to ED, regardless of whether its delivery includes online components in additionto traditional face-to-face treatment. Besides, the additional component offered bythe TCApp does not appear to be promising from a purely therapeutic perspectivebut perhaps as a cost-effective tool, reducing thus the costs and time burden associ-ated with weekly visits to health professionals.The current study is part of a broader project titled “mHealth: Chal-lenges and opportunities for health systems” which receives funding from RecerCaixa of “La Caixa” Foundation.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)

The complex topography and high climatic variability of the North Western Mediterranean Basin (NWMB) require a detailed assessment of climate change projections at high resolution. ECHAM5/MPIOM global climate projections for mid-21st century and three different emission scenarios are downscaled at 10 km resolution over the NWMB, using the WRF-ARW regional model. High resolution improves the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation climatologies, with Pearson's correlation against observation being higher for WRF-ARW (0.98 for temperature and 0.81 for precipitation) when compared to the ERA40 reanalysis (0.69 and 0.53, respectively). However, downscaled results slightly underestimate mean temperature (≈1.3 K) and overestimate the precipitation field (≈400 mm/year). Temperature is expected to raise in the NWMB in all considered scenarios (up to 1.4 K for the annualmean), and particularly during summertime and at high altitude areas. Annual mean precipitation is likely to decrease (around −5 % to −13 % for the most extreme scenarios). The climate signal for seasonal precipitation is not so clear, as it is highly influenced by the driving GCM simulation. All scenarios suggest statistically significant decreases of precipitation for mountain ranges in winter and autumn. High resolution simulations of regional climate are potentially useful to decision makers. Nevertheless, uncertainties related to seasonal precipitation projections still persist and have to be addressed.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Projeccions climàtiques futures regionalitzades a Catalunya a alta resolució

Es presenten els principals resultats del projecte ESCAT desenvolupat entre el BSC-CNS i l’SMC sobre projeccions climàtiques al Mediterrani nord-occidental a 10 km de resolució (1971-2050) mitjançant el model mesoescalar WRF-ARW. Les simulacions desenvolupades reprodueixen els patrons generals espai-temporals de les observacions (1971-2000: temperatura i precipitació), però subestimant la temperatura i sobreestimant la precipitació. La temperatura s’espera que augmenti fins al 2050 independentment de l’escenari considerat (0,9-1,4ºC respecte 1971-2000), especialment a l’alta muntanya. En canvi, la precipitació disminuiria molt probablement (5-13% total anual respecte 1971-2000), però particularment a l’alta muntanya. També es projecten valors extrems més secs i càlids que els actuals, amb un augment significatiu en la durada de les sequeres i l’ocurrència de precipitacions extremes. Aquestes projeccions permeten definir les àrees més vulnerables (Pirineus i Vall de l’Ebre) i millorar l’avaluació dels futurs impactes en les activitats socioeconòmiques del territori.Postprint (author’s final draft

COLONIZATION PROCESS IN NEW CREATION MEDITERRANEAN COASTAL LAGOONS

The colonization process in new creation Mediterranean salt marsh lagoons is influenced by hydrological fluctuations characterised by flooding-confinement periods. This pattern has direct effects on water characteristics (such as nutrient concentration), but it also effects the connectivity structure between lagoons impacting main metacommunity dynamics. Unfortunately, these ecosystems have suffered transformations due to urbanization process that has contributed to its degradation. This is the case of La Pletera salt marshes, located in the NE of Catalonia, in where a recovery and restoration European LIFE project (LIFE13 NAT/ES/001001) that included the restoration of existing lagoons and the creation of new ones has been done. In this study, we analysed the structure of aquatic macrofauna community of these new created lagoons just after its creation and five years after its creation with the aim of assessing the colonization assembly process. Our results showed a fast colonization of the species with active dispersion since they dominated the communities right after lagoon creation (Diptera). In contrast, species with passive dispersion (Gastropoda and Amphipoda) that have a lower dispersive capacity were dominant at the last sampling survey, 5 years after creation. This could be explained by flooding periods that connect all wetland waterbodies favouring the arrival of both, active and passive dispersers. Moreover, we observed an increase in the abundance and biomass of taxa with lower dispersion capacity but without affecting the overall community richness values

Healthcare costs of post-stroke oropharyngeal dysphagia and its complications : malnutrition and respiratory infections

Altres ajuts: Acord transformatiu CRUE-CSICFinancial support received from research grants from Nutricia Danone Advanced Medical Nutrition (HESDY Grant); Fundació Salut del CSdM, Strategic Action Grant in Oropharyngeal Dysphagia provided by the Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en el Área de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, DJO Global, and la Fundació la Marató de TV3 (11/2310).Background and purpose: The healthcare economic costs of post-stroke oropharyngeal dysphagia (OD) are not fully understood. The purpose of this study was to assess the acute, subacute and long-term costs related to post-stroke OD and its main complications (malnutrition and respiratory infections). Methods: A cost of illness study of patients admitted to Mataró Hospital (Catalonia, Spain) from May 2010 to September 2014 with a stroke diagnosis was performed. OD, malnutrition and respiratory infections were assessed during hospitalization and follow-up (3 and 12 months). Hospitalization and long-term costs were measured from hospital and healthcare system perspectives. Multivariate linear regression analysis was performed to assess the independent effect of OD, malnutrition and respiratory infections on healthcare costs during hospitalization, and at 3 and 12 months' follow-up. Results: In all, 395 patients were included of whom 178 had OD at admission. Patients with OD incurred major total in-hospital costs (€5357.67 ± €3391.62 vs. €3976.30 ± €1992.58, p < 0.0001), 3-month costs (€8242.0 ± €5376.0 vs. €5320.0 ± €4053.0, p < 0.0001) and 12-month costs (€11,617.58 ± €12,033.58 vs. €7242.78 ± €7402.55, p < 0.0001). OD was independently associated with a cost increase of €789.68 (p = 0.011) during hospitalization and of €873.5 (p = 0.084) at 3 months but not at 12 months. However, patients with OD who were at risk of malnutrition or malnourished and suffered respiratory infections incurred major mean costs compared with those patients without OD (€19,817.58 ± €13,724.83 vs. €7242.8 ± €7402.6, p < 0.0004) at 12 months' follow-up. Conclusion: Oropharyngeal dysphagia causes significant high economic costs during hospitalization that strongly and significantly increase with the development of malnutrition and respiratory infections at long-term follow-up

ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION PROMOTES ZOOPLANKTON NETWORK COMPLEXITY IN MEDITERRANEAN COASTAL LAGOONS

Ecological recovery following restoration is typically evaluated using metrics based on species diversity and composition. However, increasing evidence suggests the success of long-term ecological recovery is better evaluated when more complex attributes such as biotic interaction networks are targeted. For example, at the beginning the influence of nearby habitats can promote colonization leading to similar communities in restored or newly created lagoons, but communities often diverge from surrounding water bodies at later successional stages. These changes have been attributed to the effect of biotic interactions, but few studies have tested this assumption. Here, we analyse the zooplankton community of a Mediterranean coastal wetland subjected to a restoration process that involved the creation of new lagoons. We analysed community dissimilarity patterns and used mixed graphical models to infer interaction networks from abundance data. Increasing differences in the community structure between new and old lagoons were detected from the second year after their creation. The overall interaction network was more complex in new than in old lagoons. Interestingly, the network structure in old lagoons increased its complexity three years after restoration. We show how the inclusion of interaction networks for the monitoring of ecosystem recovery reflects unique facets of community complexity, otherwise overlooked when targeting diversity metrics alone

Projeccions climàtiques i escenaris de futur

Aquest capítol tracta de la projecció dels impactes de climes futurs per a trams vulnerables de la costa catalana. Al començament, s’hi revisa la geodiversitat de la costa en termes meteorològics i geològics. El ventall d’impactes que en resulta (sota climes presents i futurs) presenta uns nivells d’incertesa que s’han de considerar per a poder prendre decisions. L’anàlisi es basa en les projeccions del nivell mitjà del mar i en les característiques de l’onatge per a les famílies d’escenaris RCP (trajectòries de concentracions representatives). La projecció dels impactes d’erosió i inundació per a platges i d’agitació i ultrapassament per a ports permet determinar quin és el domini costaner sotmès a aquests impactes, i també quins seran els nivells de risc que es poden esperar en platges i ports. Les conclusions del capítol s’estructuren com un seguit d’actuacions seqüencials per a afavorir la sostenibilitat de la costa. Aquest «camí d’adaptació» permetrà d’assolir uns nivells de riscs presents i futurs explícits, que han de ser considerats per a les activitats socioeconòmiques de la zona litoral.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Heterogeneity in the isolation of patches may be essential for the action of metacommunity mechanisms

The spatial isolation gradient of communities and the gradient in the species dispersal ability are recognized as determinants of biodiversity in metacommunities. In spite of this, mean field models, spatially explicit models, and experiments were mainly focused on idealized spatial arrangements of communities leaving aside the combining role of dispersal and isolation gradients in metacommunity processes. Consequently, we have an incipient understanding of the role of the real spatial arrangement of communities on biodiversity patterns. We focus on six metacommunities for which confident information about the spatial arrangement of water bodies is available. Using coalescent metacommunity models and null models that randomize the location of water bodies, we estimated the potential eect of the landscape on biodiversity and its dependence on species dispersal ability. At extremely lowor high dispersal abilities, the location of ponds does not influence diversity because dierent communities are equally aected by the low or high incoming dispersal. At intermediate dispersal abilities, peripheral communities present a much lower richness and higher beta diversity than central communities.Moreover,metacommunities from real landscapes host more biodiversity than randomized landscapes, a result that is determined by the heterogeneity in the geographic isolation of communities. In a dispersal gradient, mass eects systematically increase the local richness and decrease beta diversity. However, the spatial arrangement of patches only has a large importance in metacommunity processes at intermediate dispersal abilities, which ensures access to central locations but limits dispersal in isolated communities. The ongoing reduction in spatial extent and simplification of the landscape may consequently undermine the metacommunity processes that support biodiversity, something that should be explicitly considered in preserving and restoring strategies

Observed trends and changes in Extreme Climate Indices over the Pyrenees (1959-2015)

Póster presentado en: EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology celebrado del 9 al 13 de septiembre de 2017 en Copenhague, Dinamarca.CLIMPY (Characterisation of the evolution of climate and provision of information for adaptation in the Pyrenees) is a transboundary project that aims to perform a detailed analysis of recent trends in temperature, precipitation and snow cover in the Pyrenees, and their future projection. As a result, changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and timing of weather and climate extremes due to climate change are among the more relevant objectives.This project (EFA081/15) is under the umbrella of the Pyrenees Climate Change Observatory (OPCC-CTP), and it has a 65% funding by the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) through the Interreg Programme V-A Spain-France-Andorra (POCTEFA 2014-2020)