Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in Central and Eastern Europe

In this paper we aim to analyse the dynamics of unemployment in a group of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). The CEECs are of special importance for the future of the European Union, given that most of them have recently become member states, and labour flows have been seen to rise with their accession. By means of unit root tests incorporating structural changes and nonlinearities, as well as fractional integration, we find that the unemployment rates for the CEECs are mean reverting processes, which is consistent with the NAIRU hypothesis, although shocks tend to be highly persistent.Unemployment, NAIRU, hysteresis, unit roots, fractional integration

Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in European transition economies

In this paper we aim to analyse the dynamics of unemployment in a group of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). The CEECs are of special importance for the future of the European Union, given that most of them have recently become member states, and labour flows have been seen to rise with their accession. By means of unit root tests incorporating structural changes and nonlinearities, as well as fractional integration, we find that the unemployment rates for the CEECs are mean reverting processes, which is consistent with the NAIRU hypothesis, although shocks tend to be highly persistent.Unemployment, NAIRU, hysteresis, unit roots, fractional integration

Further evidence on the PPP analysis of the Australian dollar: non-linearities, fractional integration and structural changes

The aim of this paper is to analyse the empirical fulfilment of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory for the Australian dollar. In order to do so we have applied recently developed unit root tests that account for asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium (Kapetanios et al., 2003) and fractional integration in the context of structural changes (Robinson, 1994, and Gil-Alana, 2008). Although our results point to the rejection of the PPP hypothesis, we find that the degree of persistence of shocks to the Australian dollar decreases after the 1985 currency crisis.PPP, Real Exchange Rate, Unit Roots, Non-linearities, Fractional integration

Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe with a view to adopting the euro

In this paper we consider inflation rate differentials between seven Central and Eastern Countries (CEECs) and the Eurozone. We focus explicitly upon a group of CEECs given that although they are already member states, they are currently not part of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and must fulfil the Maastricht convergence criteria before being able to adopt the euro. However, this group of countries does not have an opt-out clause and so must eventually adopt the single currency. Hence, considering divergence in inflation rates between each country and the Eurozone is important in that evidence of persistent differences may increase the chance of asymmetric inflationary shocks. Furthermore, once a country joins the Eurozone the operation of a country specific monetary policy is no longer an option. We explicitly test for convergence in the inflation rate differentials, incorporating non-linearities in the autoregressive parameters, fractional integration with endogenous structural changes, and also consider club convergence analysis for the CEECs over the period 1997 to 2011 based on monthly data. Our empirical findings suggest that the majority of countries experience non-linearities in the inflation rate differential, however there is only evidence of a persistent difference in three out of the seven countries. Complementary to this analysis we apply the Phillips and Sul (2007) test for club convergence and find that there is evidence that most of the CEECs converge to a common steady state.Central and Eastern Europe , euro adoption, inflation convergence, non-linearities

Oil price shocks and unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe

The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of oil price movements on unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe. We do this by disentangling oil prices movements by their sign and from there we analyse the separate effects of positive and negative movements of oil prices on unemployment rates. We find that, although oil prices and unemployment are not correlated very much in the short run, the effect of oil price shocks on the natural rate of unemployment goes in the same direction, so that increases or decreases in oil prices increase or decrease the natural rate of unemployment.The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of Eesti Pank or the Eurosystem. The authors gratefully acknowledge comments by Jaanika Meriküll, Karsten Staehr, the editor and two anonymous referees on an earlier draft. The usual disclaimer applies. Juan Carlos Cuestas gratefully acknowledges financial support from the MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Spain) research grant ECO2014-58991-C3-2-R and the Generalitat Valenciana project AICO/2016/038. Luis A. Gil-Alana gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (ECO2014-55236)

Government debt dynamics and the global financial crisis: Has anything changed in the EA12?

This paper seeks to shed light on possible changes in the government debt dynamics for the first 12 euro area countries. Structural breaks are present around the global financial crisis for most countries, but not for Germany and France, the two core countries in the euro area. The properties of the government debt dynamics differ markedly across the countries receiving bailouts

Energy Prediction in Urban Photovoltaic Systems

Este artículo propone un nuevo método para estimar la potencia y energía producida por sistemas fotovoltaicos urbanos, los cuales son comúnmente cubiertos por sombras que afectan su desempeño. La solución se basa en un algoritmo para procesar, rápidamente, un modelo preciso que considera el efecto de las sombras. Esta solución provee un mejor desempeño en comparación con aproximaciones clásicas, ya que reduce significativamente el tiempo de cálculo sin introducir errores sensibles, permitiendo la simulación de largos periodos de operación, e.g. meses y años. Por lo tanto, esta solución es apropiada para realizar estimaciones de energía orientadas a análisis económicos, e.g. cálculo del tiempo de retorno de la inversión, así como para soportar el diseño de instalaciones fotovoltaicas, permitiendo el cálculo preciso del número de módulos requeridos para suplir el perfil de carga.This paper proposes a new method to accurately estimate the power and energy production in urban photovoltaic (PV) systems, which are commonly covered by shades affecting its performance. The solution is based on an efficient algorithm designed to compute, in short time, an accurate model accounting for the shades impact. In such a way, the proposed approach improves classical solutions by significantly reducing the processing time to simulate long periods, e.g. months and years, but without introducing sensible errors. Therefore, this approach is suitable to estimate the production of PV systems for economical analyses such as the return-of-invested time calculation, but also to accurately design PV installations by selecting the right number of photovoltaic modules to supply the required load power.  

Modeling of PV Systems Based on Inflection Points Technique Considering Reverse Mode

Este artículo propone una metodología para el modelado de sistemas fotovoltaicos, considerando su comportamiento tanto en el modo de operación directo como en modo inverso bajo condiciones no uniformes de irradiación. La metodología propuesta se basa en la técnica de puntos de inflexión con una aproximación lineal del modelo del diodo de bypass y un modelo simplificado del módulo fotovoltaico. El modelo matemático planteado permite evaluar el rendimiento energético de un sistema fotovoltaico, con tiempos cortos de simulación para arreglos de gran tamaño. Adicionalmente, esta metodología permite estimar el estado de los módulos afectados por el sombreo parcial ya que es posible conocer la potencia disipada debido a la operación en el segundo cuadrante.This paper proposes a methodology for photovoltaic (PV) systems modeling, considering their behavior in both direct and reverse operating mode and considering mismatching conditions. The proposed methodology is based on the inflection points technique with a linear approximation to model the bypass diode and a simplified PV model. The proposed mathematical model allows to evaluate the energetic performance of a PV system, exhibiting short simulation times in large PV systems. In addition, this methodology allows to estimate the condition of the modules affected by the partial shading since it is possible to know the power dissipated due to its operation at the second quadrant

Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in European transition economies

Abstract In this paper we aim to analyse the dynamics of unemployment in a group of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). The CEECs are of special importance for the future of the European Union, given that most of them have recently become member states, and labour flows have been seen to rise with their accession. By means of unit root tests incorporating structural changes and nonlinearities, as well as fractional integration, we find that the unemployment rates for the CEECs are mean reverting processes, which is consistent with the NAIRU hypothesis, although shocks tend to be highly persistent. J.E.L. Classification : C32, E2

Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?

The paper investigates and compares the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty under inflation targeting and, alternatively, a conventional fixed exchange rate system, for a group of emerging countries. To do so we estimate GARCH in mean models and we find that there is a bi-directional relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty under the two monetary regimes. It is also found that the fixed exchange rate regime has no impact on average inflation and inflation inertia, while inflation targeting has been successful at lowering both average inflation and inflation persistence