Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments

Megafloods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of life. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely go beyond national borders and cannot predict these floods well because of limited data on megafloods, and because flood generation processes of extremes differ from those of smaller, more frequently observed events. Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gauging stations across Europe and show that recent megafloods could have been anticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe. Almost all observed megafloods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values estimated from previous floods in other similar places on the continent, implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This holds also for older events, indicating that megafloods have not changed much in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying concept of the study is that catchments with similar flood generation processes produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and save lives

Absolute beat-to-beat variability and instability parameters of ECG intervals:biomarkers for predicting ischaemia-induced ventricular fibrillation

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Predicting lethal arrhythmia liability from beat-to-beat variability and instability (BVI) of the ECG intervals is a useful technique in drug assessment. Most investigators use only arrhythmia-free ECGs for this. Recently, it was shown that drug-induced torsades de pointes (TdP) liability can be predicted more accurately from BVI measured irrespective of rhythm, even during arrhythmias (absolute BVI). The present study tested the broader applicability of this assessment by examining whether absolute BVI parameters predict another potential lethal arrhythmia, ischaemia-induced ventricular fibrillation (VF). EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: Langendorff-perfused rat hearts were subjected to regional ischaemia for 15 min. Absolute BVI parameters were derived from ECG intervals measured in 40 consecutive ventricular complexes (irrespective of rhythm) immediately preceding VF onset and compared with time-matched values in hearts not expressing VF. KEY RESULTS: Increased frequency of non-sinus beats and ‘R on T’ arrhythmic beats, shortened mean RR and electrical diastolic intervals, and increased BVI of cycle length and repolarization predicted VF occurrence. Absolute BVI parameters that quantify variability of repolarization (e.g. ‘short-term variability’ of QT interval) had the best predictive power with high sensitivity and specificity. In contrast, VF was not predicted by any BVI parameter derived from the last arrhythmia-free interlude before VF. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The novel absolute BVI parameters that predicted TdP in rabbit also predict ischaemia-induced VF in rat, indicating a diagnostic and mechanistic congruence. Repolarization inhomogeneity represents a pivotal biomarker of ischaemia-induced VF. The newly validated biomarkers could serve as surrogates for VF in pre-clinical drug investigations

Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments

Megafoods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizensand experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss oflife. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely gobeyond national borders and cannot predict these foods well because oflimited data on megafoods, and because food generation processes ofextremes difer from those of smaller, more frequently observed events.Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gaugingstations across Europe and show that recent megafoods could have beenanticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe.Almost all observed megafoods (95.5%) fall within the envelope valuesestimated from previous foods in other similar places on the continent,implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. Thisholds also for older events, indicating that megafoods have not changedmuch in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying conceptof the study is that catchments with similar food generation processesproduce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundariesand learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises andsave lives.</p

Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments

Megafloods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of life. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely go beyond national borders and cannot predict these floods well because of limited data on megafloods, and because flood generation processes of extremes differ from those of smaller, more frequently observed events. Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gauging stations across Europe and show that recent megafloods could have been anticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe. Almost all observed megafloods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values estimated from previous floods in other similar places on the continent, implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This holds also for older events, indicating that megafloods have not changed much in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying concept of the study is that catchments with similar flood generation processes produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and save lives