Megafoods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizensand experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss oflife. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely gobeyond national borders and cannot predict these foods well because oflimited data on megafoods, and because food generation processes ofextremes difer from those of smaller, more frequently observed events.Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gaugingstations across Europe and show that recent megafoods could have beenanticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe.Almost all observed megafoods (95.5%) fall within the envelope valuesestimated from previous foods in other similar places on the continent,implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. Thisholds also for older events, indicating that megafoods have not changedmuch in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying conceptof the study is that catchments with similar food generation processesproduce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundariesand learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises andsave lives.</p
