Cosmic radiation exposure of aviators for solar cycles 23 and 24

Assessing the radiation exposure of aviators and frequent flyers requires the study of the cosmic ray showers inside the Earth’s atmosphere. DYASTIMA / DYASTIMA-R is a Geant4 based software application, implemented by the Athens Cosmic Ray Group which allows the study of the evolving secondary particles cascades inside the atmosphere, as well as radiation dosimetry calculations (ambient dose equivalent rate) at different atmosphe - ric altitudes, geographic coordinates and magnetic cut-off rigidity. Results for various scenarios, as calculated by DYASTIMA/DYASTIMA-R, are provided as a federated product through the European Space Agency Space Situational Awareness of the Space Radiation Service Centre Network, while the DYASTIMA software is provi- ded through the Athens Neutron Monitor Station (A.Ne.Mo.S.) portal. Initial results for the assessment of the radiation exposure during the last Solar Cycles 23 and 24 are presented in this work, covering the most usual flying altitudes. The results indicate the dependence of the dose rate on the magnetic cut-off rigidity threshold, with higher dose rates at high geographic latitudes, as well as the anti-correlation of cosmic ray intensity with the solar activity, as higher dose rates are observed during solar minimum conditions

Catalogue of 55-80 MeV solar proton events extending through solar cycles 23 and 24

We present a new catalogue of solar energetic particle events near the Earth, covering solar cycle 23 and the majority of solar cycle 24 (1996-2016), based on the 55-80 MeV proton intensity data gathered by the SOHO/ERNE experiment. In addition to ERNE proton and heavy ion observations, data from the ACE/EPAM (near-relativistic electrons), SOHO/EPHIN (relativistic electrons), SOHO/LASCO (coronal mass ejections, CMEs), and GOES soft X-ray experiments are also considered and the associations between the particle and CME/X-ray events deduced to obtain a better understanding of each event. A total of 176 SEP events have been identified as having occurred during the time period of interest; their onset and solar release times have been estimated using both velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time-shifting analysis (TSA) for protons, as well as TSA for near-relativistic electrons. Additionally, a brief statistical analysis has been performed on the VDA and TSA results, as well as the X-rays and CMEs associated with the proton/electron events, both to test the viability of the VDA and to investigate possible differences between the two solar cycles. We find, in confirmation of a number of previous studies, that VDA results for protons that yield an apparent path length of 1 AU < s <~ 3 AU seem to be useful, but those outside this range are probably unreliable, as evidenced by the anticorrelation between apparent path length and release time estimated from the X-ray activity. It also appears that even the first-arriving energetic protons apparently undergo significant pitch angle scattering in the interplanetary medium, with the resulting apparent path length being on average about twice the length of the spiral magnetic field. The analysis indicates an increase in high-energy SEP events originating from the far eastern solar hemisphere; e.g., such an event...Comment: 33 pages, 12 figures (2 with multiple image files), 1 appendix as an external PDF file. Article is in the accepted manuscript/referee (single column) forma

Atmospheric cosmic ray induced ionization and radiation affecting aviation

Cosmic radiation is a major factor of ionization of the Earth’s atmosphere. Both solar and galactic cosmic rays, which depend on solar activity and geomagnetic field, affect the radiation exposure in the atmosphere. Several models have been created for the estimation of the ionization and radiation dosimetry. In this work, as regards the ionization rate computations the CRAC:CRII model by the University of Oulu (https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/CRII/CRII.html) was used, while for the estimation of the ambient equivalent dose rate (dH*(10)/dt) we used the validated software DYASTIMA / DYASTIMA-R by the University of Athens (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr/index.php/applications/dyastima). Both tools are of great importance as they allow us to calculate the respective quantities all over the globe, at the entire atmosphere and for different time periods and solar cycle phases. The study concerns the last two solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996–2019) and specific flight levels of commercial aviation (FL310, FL350 and FL390). The dependance of CRII and dH*(10)/dt on geomagnetic cut-off rigidity, solar activity, cosmic ray intensity, as well as the altitude inside the atmosphere, affect the radiation exposure of the air crew members and frequent flyers, which make the results very interesting for the aviation industr

The updated GLE alert system by ANEMOS

Ground level enhancements (GLEs) of cosmic radiation are the result of solar energetic particles (SEPs) arriving at the Earth, potentially causing major damage to technological systems, but also posing a threat for human health. Intense SEPs, such as the GLE events, can influence the radiation exposure of aircrafts and consequently increase the radiation dose on human crew, but also have an impact on satellites and affect the design of space missions, i.e electronic devices onboard the satellite platforms etc. Therefore, predicting such events is challenging and one of the most important aspects of space weather research. In this work the updated GLE Alert++ System of the Athens Neutron Monitor Station (A.Ne.Mo.S.) implemented by the Athens Cosmic Ray Group of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA) is being presented. Moreover, the innovations of the updated system in relation to the previous version of the GLE Alert Plus are introduced. Finally, the most recent and the first of solar cycle 25 GLE event, GLE73, is discussed. This event was registered by several stations of the worldwide ground-based neutron monitor network. An accurate alert was issued successfully by the ESA R-ESC federated product GLE Alert Plus, as well as by the updated GLE Alert++ System of the NKUA/A.Ne.Mo.S. It should be emphasized that GLE Alert++ signal by NKUA/A.Ne.Mo.S. was issued 45 minutes earlier than the one issued by GOES satellites

Very high energy proton peak flux model

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) pose a serious radiation hazard to spacecraft and astronauts. The highest energy SEPs are a significant threat even in heavily shielded applications. We present a new probabilistic model of very high energy differential peak proton fluxes. The model is based on GOES/HEPAD observations between 1986 and 2018, i.e., covering very nearly three complete solar cycles. The SEP event list for the model was defined using a statistical criterion derived by setting the possibility of false detection of an event to 1%. The peak flux distributions were calculated for the interpolated energies 405 MeV, 500 MeV and 620 MeV, and modelled with exponentially cut off power law functions. The HEPAD data were cleaned and corrected using a "bow-tie" method which is based on the response functions of the HEPAD channels P8-P10 found in the instrument calibration reports. The results of the model are available to the Space Weather community as a web-based tool at the ESA's Space Situational Awareness Programme Space Weather Service Network

Two solar proton fluence models based on ground level enhancement observations

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) constitute an important component of the radiation environment in interplanetary space. Accurate modeling of SEP events is crucial for the mitigation of radiation hazards in spacecraft design. In this study we present two new statistical models of high energy solar proton fluences based on ground level enhancement (GLE) observations during solar cycles 19–24. As the basis of our modeling, we utilize a four parameter double power law function (known as the Band function) fits to integral GLE fluence spectra in rigidity. In the first model, the integral and differential fluences for protons with energies between 10 MeV and 1 GeV are calculated using the fits, and the distributions of the fluences at certain energies are modeled with an exponentially cut-off power law function. In the second model, we use a more advanced methodology: by investigating the distributions and relationships of the spectral fit parameters we find that they can be modeled as two independent and two dependent variables. Therefore, instead of modeling the fluences separately at different energies, we can model the shape of the fluence spectrum. We present examples of modeling results and show that the two methodologies agree well except for a short mission duration (1 year) at low confidence level. We also show that there is a reasonable agreement between our models and three well-known solar proton models (JPL, ESP and SEPEM), despite the differences in both the modeling methodologies and the data used to construct the models.</p

25 Years of Self-organized Criticality: Concepts and Controversies

Introduced by the late Per Bak and his colleagues, self-organized criticality (SOC) has been one of the most stimulating concepts to come out of statistical mechanics and condensed matter theory in the last few decades, and has played a significant role in the development of complexity science. SOC, and more generally fractals and power laws, have attracted much comment, ranging from the very positive to the polemical. The other papers (Aschwanden et al. in Space Sci. Rev., 2014, this issue; McAteer et al. in Space Sci. Rev., 2015, this issue; Sharma et al. in Space Sci. Rev. 2015, in preparation) in this special issue showcase the considerable body of observations in solar, magnetospheric and fusion plasma inspired by the SOC idea, and expose the fertile role the new paradigm has played in approaches to modeling and understanding multiscale plasma instabilities. This very broad impact, and the necessary process of adapting a scientific hypothesis to the conditions of a given physical system, has meant that SOC as studied in these fields has sometimes differed significantly from the definition originally given by its creators. In Bak’s own field of theoretical physics there are significant observational and theoretical open questions, even 25 years on (Pruessner 2012). One aim of the present review is to address the dichotomy between the great reception SOC has received in some areas, and its shortcomings, as they became manifest in the controversies it triggered. Our article tries to clear up what we think are misunderstandings of SOC in fields more remote from its origins in statistical mechanics, condensed matter and dynamical systems by revisiting Bak, Tang and Wiesenfeld’s original papers

Review of solar energetic particle models

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars. Thus, it is critical to improve the scientific understanding of SEP events and use this understanding to develop and improve SEP forecasting capabilities to support operations. Many SEP models exist or are in development using a wide variety of approaches and with differing goals. These include computationally intensive physics-based models, fast and light empirical models, machine learning-based models, and mixed-model approaches. The aim of this paper is to summarize all of the SEP models currently developed in the scientific community, including a description of model approach, inputs and outputs, free parameters, and any published validations or comparisons with data.</p

Solar particle radiation storms forecasting and analysis: the HESPERIA HORIZON 2020 project and beyond

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) emitted from the Sun are a major space weather hazard motivating the development of predictive capabilities. This book presents the results and findings of the HESPERIA (High Energy Solar Particle Events forecasting and Analysis) project of the EU HORIZON 2020 programme. It discusses the forecasting operational tools developed within the project, and presents progress to SEP research contributed by HESPERIA both from the observational as well as the SEP modelling perspective. Using multi-frequency observational data and simulations HESPERIA investigated the chain of processes from particle acceleration in the corona, particle transport in the magnetically complex corona and interplanetary space, to the detection near 1 AU. The book also elaborates on the unique software that has been constructed for inverting observations of relativistic SEPs to physical parameters that can be compared with spac e-borne measurements at lower energies. Introductory and pedagogical material included in the book make it accessible to students at graduate level and will be useful as background material for Space Physics and Space Weather courses with emphasis on Solar Energetic Particle Event Forecasting and Analysis. This book is published with open access under a CC BY 4.0 license