Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios

Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the world. This approach can bias the results of impact assessments for agriculture given the importance of global trade in this sector. Due to potential impacts on relative competitiveness, international trade, global supply, and prices, the net impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in each region depend not only on productivity impacts within that region, but on how climate change impacts agricultural productivity throughout the world. In this study, we apply a global model of agriculture and forestry to evaluate climate change impacts on US agriculture with and without accounting for climate change impacts in the rest of the world. In addition, we examine scenarios where trade is expanded to explore the implications for regional allocation of production, trade volumes, and prices. To our knowledge, this is one of the only attempts to explicitly quantify the relative importance of accounting for global climate change when conducting regional assessments of climate change impacts. The results of our analyses reveal substantial differences in estimated impacts on the US agricultural sector when accounting for global impacts vs. US-only impacts, particularly for commodities where the United States has a smaller share of global production. In addition, we find that freer trade can play an important role in helping to buffer regional productivity shocks

Acute effects of fine particulate air pollution on ST segment height: A longitudinal study

Background The mechanisms for the relationship between particulate air pollution and cardiac disease are not fully understood. Air pollution-induced myocardial ischemia is one of the potentially important mechanisms. Methods We investigate the acute effects and the time course of fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) on myocardium ischemic injury as assessed by ST-segment height in a community-based sample of 106 healthy non-smokers. Twenty-four hour beat-to-beat electrocardiogram (ECG) data were obtained using a high resolution 12-lead Holter ECG system. After visually identifying and removing all the artifacts and arrhythmic beats, we calculated beat-to-beat ST-height from ten leads (inferior leads II, III, and aVF; anterior leads V3 and V4; septal leads V1 and V2; lateral leads I, V5, and V6,). Individual-level 24-hour real-time PM2.5 concentration was obtained by a continuous personal PM2.5 monitor. We then calculated, on a 30-minute basis, the corresponding time-of-the-day specific average exposure to PM2.5 for each participant. Distributed lag models under a linear mixed-effects models framework were used to assess the regression coefficients between 30-minute PM2.5 and ST-height measures from each lead; i.e., one lag indicates a 30-minute separation between the exposure and outcome. Results The mean (SD) age was 56 (7.6) years, with 41% male and 74% white. The mean (SD) PM2.5 exposure was 14 (22) μg/m3. All inferior leads (II, III, and aVF) and two out of three lateral leads (I and V6), showed a significant association between higher PM2.5 levels and higher ST-height. Most of the adverse effects occurred within two hours after PM2.5 exposure. The multivariable adjusted regression coefficients β (95% CI) of the cumulative effect due to a 10 μg/m3 increase in Lag 0-4 PM2.5 on ST-I, II, III, aVF and ST-V6 were 0.29 (0.01-0.56) μV, 0.79 (0.20-1.39) μV, 0.52 (0.01-1.05) μV, 0.65 (0.11-1.19) μV, and 0.58 (0.07-1.09) μV, respectively, with all p < 0.05. Conclusions Increased PM2.5 concentration is associated with immediate increase in ST-segment height in inferior and lateral leads, generally within two hours. Such an acute effect of PM2.5 may contribute to increased potential for regional myocardial ischemic injury among healthy individuals

Retrospective evaluation of whole exome and genome mutation calls in 746 cancer samples

The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) curated consensus somatic mutation calls using whole exome sequencing (WES) and whole genome sequencing (WGS), respectively. Here, as part of the ICGC/TCGA Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium, which aggregated whole genome sequencing data from 2,658 cancers across 38 tumour types, we compare WES and WGS side-by-side from 746 TCGA samples, finding that ~80% of mutations overlap in covered exonic regions. We estimate that low variant allele fraction (VAF < 15%) and clonal heterogeneity contribute up to 68% of private WGS mutations and 71% of private WES mutations. We observe that ~30% of private WGS mutations trace to mutations identified by a single variant caller in WES consensus efforts. WGS captures both ~50% more variation in exonic regions and un-observed mutations in loci with variable GC-content. Together, our analysis highlights technological divergences between two reproducible somatic variant detection efforts.publishedVersio

Cardiovascular health and particulate vehicular emissions: a critical evaluation of the evidence

A major public health goal is to determine linkages between specific pollution sources and adverse health outcomes. This paper provides an integrative evaluation of the database examining effects of vehicular emissions, such as black carbon (BC), carbonaceous gasses, and ultrafine PM, on cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality. Less than a decade ago, few epidemiological studies had examined effects of traffic emissions specifically on these health endpoints. In 2002, the first of many studies emerged finding significantly higher risks of CV morbidity and mortality for people living in close proximity to major roadways, vs. those living further away. Abundant epidemiological studies now link exposure to vehicular emissions, characterized in many different ways, with CV health endpoints such as cardiopulmonary and ischemic heart disease and circulatory-disease-associated mortality; incidence of coronary artery disease; acute myocardial infarction; survival after heart failure; emergency CV hospital admissions; and markers of atherosclerosis. We identify numerous in vitro, in vivo, and human panel studies elucidating mechanisms which could explain many of these cardiovascular morbidity and mortality associations. These include: oxidative stress, inflammation, lipoperoxidation and atherosclerosis, change in heart rate variability (HRV), arrhythmias, ST-segment depression, and changes in vascular function (such as brachial arterial caliber and blood pressure). Panel studies with accurate exposure information, examining effects of ambient components of vehicular emissions on susceptible human subjects, appear to confirm these mechanisms. Together, this body of evidence supports biological mechanisms which can explain the various CV epidemiological findings. Based upon these studies, the research base suggests that vehicular emissions are a major environmental cause of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in the United States. As a means to reduce the public health consequences of such emissions, it may be desirable to promulgate a black carbon (BC) PM2.5 standard under the National Ambient Air Quality Standards, which would apply to both on and off-road diesels. Two specific critical research needs are identified. One is to continue research on health effects of vehicular emissions, gaseous as well as particulate. The second is to utilize identical or nearly identical research designs in studies using accurate exposure metrics to determine whether other major PM pollutant sources and types may also underlie the specific health effects found in this evaluation for vehicular emissions

Retrospective evaluation of whole exome and genome mutation calls in 746 cancer samples

Funder: NCI U24CA211006Abstract: The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) curated consensus somatic mutation calls using whole exome sequencing (WES) and whole genome sequencing (WGS), respectively. Here, as part of the ICGC/TCGA Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium, which aggregated whole genome sequencing data from 2,658 cancers across 38 tumour types, we compare WES and WGS side-by-side from 746 TCGA samples, finding that ~80% of mutations overlap in covered exonic regions. We estimate that low variant allele fraction (VAF < 15%) and clonal heterogeneity contribute up to 68% of private WGS mutations and 71% of private WES mutations. We observe that ~30% of private WGS mutations trace to mutations identified by a single variant caller in WES consensus efforts. WGS captures both ~50% more variation in exonic regions and un-observed mutations in loci with variable GC-content. Together, our analysis highlights technological divergences between two reproducible somatic variant detection efforts