An application of design knowledge captured from multiple sources

The Hubble Space Telescope Operational Readiness Expert Safemode Investigation System (HSTORESIS) is a reusable knowledge base shell used to demonstrate the integration and application of design knowledge captured from multiple technical domains. The design of HSTORESIS is based on a partitioning of knowledge to maximize the potential for reuse of certain types of knowledge

Developing a Resilient, Robust and Efficient Supply Network in Africa

Purpose — Supply chains need to balance competing objectives; in addition to efficiency, supply chains need to be resilient to adversarial and environmental interference and robust to uncertainties in long-term demand. Significant research has been conducted designing efficient supply chains and recent research has focused on resilient supply chain design. However, the integration of resilient and robust supply chain design is less well studied. The purpose of the paper is to include resilience and robustness into supply chain design. Design/methodology/approach — The paper develops a method to include resilience and robustness into supply chain design. Using the region of West Africa, which is plagued with persisting logistical issues, the authors develop a regional risk assessment framework and then apply categorical risk to the countries of West Africa using publicly available data. A scenario reduction technique is used to focus on the highest risk scenarios for the model to be tractable. Next, the authors develop a mathematical model leveraging this framework to design a resilient supply network that minimizes cost while ensuring the network functions following a disruption. Finally, the authors examine the network\u27s robustness to demand uncertainty via several plausible emergency scenarios. Findings — The authors provide optimal sets of transshipment hubs with varying counts from 5 through 15 hubs. The authors determine there is no feasible solution that uses only five transshipment hubs. The authors\u27 findings reinforce those seven transshipment hubs – the solution currently employed in West Africa – is the cheapest architecture to achieve resilience and robustness. Additionally, for each set of feasibility transshipment hubs, the authors provide connections between hubs and demand spokes. Originality/value — While, at the time of this research, three other manuscripts incorporated both resilience and robustness of the authors\u27 research unique solved the problem as a network flow instead of as a set covering problem. Additionally, the authors establish a novel risk framework to guide the required amount of redundancy, and finally the out research proposes a scenario reduction heuristic to allow tractable exploration of 512 possible demand scenarios

Abundances in HD27411 and the helium problem in Am stars

We analyze a high-resolution spectrum of the A3m star HD27411. We compare abundances derived from ATLAS9 model atmospheres with those using the more computationally-intensive ATLAS12 code. We found very little differences in the abundances, suggesting that ATLAS9 can be used for moderate chemical peculiarity. Our abundances agree well with the predictions of diffusion theory, though for some elements it was necessary to calculate line profiles in non-thermodynamic equilibrium to obtain agreement. We investigate the effective temperatures and luminosities of Am/Fm stars using synthetic Stromgren indices derived from calculated spectra with the atmospheric abundances of HD27411. We find that the effective temperatures of Am/Fm stars derived from Stromgren photometry are reliable, but the luminosities are probably too low. Caution is required when deriving the reddening of these stars owing to line blanketing effects. A comparison of the relative proportions of pulsating and non-pulsating Am stars with delta Scuti stars shows quite clearly that there is no significant decrease of helium in the driving zone, contrary to current models of diffusion.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 6 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

Spatial point process theory

No abstract

Junkie love : romance and addiction on the big screen

This article investigates the filmic construction of two disparate but intertwining cultural practices: those engaging in the life-affirming rituals of romantic love and those performing the potentially self-destructive rituals of hard drug consumption. Discussing a number of key feature films from the (mini) genre “junkie love”, it aims to show what happens when elements of mainstream romantic drama merge with the horror conventions of the heroin addiction film. Drawing amongst others on Murray Smith’s theory of “levels of [spectator] engagement” and Greg Smith’s concept of the “emotion system”, the article concludes that junkie love films, using tropes of the romantic tragedy in the tradition of Romeo and Juliet, present a more complex and nuanced approach to drug addicts than the predominantly condemnatory media coverage—one that arguably invites the spectator’s understanding and compassion

The area-based social patterning of injuries among 10 to 19 year olds Changes over time in the Stockholm County

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Area-based studies of childhood injuries strongly suggest that neighborhood socio-demographic and economic circumstances impact on various – though not all – types of injuries. The primary aim of this study was to investigate the stability over time of the association between area characteristics and childhood injuries of various causes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Register-based and ecological, the study encompassed Stockholm County's 138 parishes, and considered two time periods (1993–95; 2003–05). Two indices were measured: economic deprivation and social fragmentation, and parishes were allocated to their respective quintile on each index. Data on both unintentional and intentional injuries for children (boys and girls) aged 10–14 and 15–19 respectively were gathered from the County Council's hospital inpatient register. For each period and index, gender, age and cause-specific comparisons were made to assess the rate ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) of being injured using parishes belonging to the best index level as a comparison group. A series of simple and partial Pearson correlations were also calculated to assess the independent contribution of each index.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Regardless of time period, there were rather few significant rate ratios and, when they occurred, there were both under and excess risks. For instance, in each period, boys from both age groups living in parishes with the highest levels of economic deprivation had lower rate of injury as a motor vehicle rider. Most strikingly, intentional injuries were more frequent during the second time period and in considerable excess among girls aged 15–19 from more economically deprived areas. Also, during that last period, none of the injury causes correlated significantly with the index of social fragmentation after adjustment for economic deprivation (partial correlation).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Over a ten-year period, differential economic deprivation among parishes has widened more than social fragmentation in Stockholm County. The correlation between those indices is high in both periods of time whilst the association between the levels of each index and injury rates varies depending on group of injuries or time period considered. It is of concern that intentional injuries have increased numerically and are significantly and positively correlated with economic deprivation (net of social fragmentation), in particular among girls.</p

Horizontal Branch Stars: The Interplay between Observations and Theory, and Insights into the Formation of the Galaxy

We review HB stars in a broad astrophysical context, including both variable and non-variable stars. A reassessment of the Oosterhoff dichotomy is presented, which provides unprecedented detail regarding its origin and systematics. We show that the Oosterhoff dichotomy and the distribution of globular clusters (GCs) in the HB morphology-metallicity plane both exclude, with high statistical significance, the possibility that the Galactic halo may have formed from the accretion of dwarf galaxies resembling present-day Milky Way satellites such as Fornax, Sagittarius, and the LMC. A rediscussion of the second-parameter problem is presented. A technique is proposed to estimate the HB types of extragalactic GCs on the basis of integrated far-UV photometry. The relationship between the absolute V magnitude of the HB at the RR Lyrae level and metallicity, as obtained on the basis of trigonometric parallax measurements for the star RR Lyrae, is also revisited, giving a distance modulus to the LMC of (m-M)_0 = 18.44+/-0.11. RR Lyrae period change rates are studied. Finally, the conductive opacities used in evolutionary calculations of low-mass stars are investigated. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 56 pages, 22 figures. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

Piecewise Approximate Bayesian Computation: fast inference for discretely observed Markov models using a factorised posterior distribution

Many modern statistical applications involve inference for complicated stochastic models for which the likelihood function is difficult or even impossible to calculate, and hence conventional likelihood-based inferential techniques cannot be used. In such settings, Bayesian inference can be performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). However, in spite of many recent developments to ABC methodology, in many applications the computational cost of ABC necessitates the choice of summary statistics and tolerances that can potentially severely bias the estimate of the posterior. We propose a new “piecewise” ABC approach suitable for discretely observed Markov models that involves writing the posterior density of the parameters as a product of factors, each a function of only a subset of the data, and then using ABC within each factor. The approach has the advantage of side-stepping the need to choose a summary statistic and it enables a stringent tolerance to be set, making the posterior “less approximate”. We investigate two methods for estimating the posterior density based on ABC samples for each of the factors: the first is to use a Gaussian approximation for each factor, and the second is to use a kernel density estimate. Both methods have their merits. The Gaussian approximation is simple, fast, and probably adequate for many applications. On the other hand, using instead a kernel density estimate has the benefit of consistently estimating the true piecewise ABC posterior as the number of ABC samples tends to infinity. We illustrate the piecewise ABC approach with four examples; in each case, the approach offers fast and accurate inference