Clinical prediction rules for adverse evolution in patients with COVID-19 by the Omicron variant

Objective We identify factors related to SARS-CoV-2 infection linked to hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality and develop clinical prediction rules. Methods Retrospective cohort study of 380,081 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 1, 2020 to January 9, 2022, including a subsample of 46,402 patients who attended Emergency Departments (EDs) having data on vital signs. For derivation and external validation of the prediction rule, two different periods were considered: before and after emergence of the Omicron variant, respectively. Data collected included sociodemographic data, COVID-19 vaccination status, baseline comorbidities and treatments, other background data and vital signs at triage at EDs. The predictive models for the EDs and the whole samples were developed using multivariate logistic regression models using Lasso penalization. Results In the multivariable models, common predictive factors of death among EDs patients were greater age; being male; having no vaccination, dementia; heart failure; liver and kidney disease; hemiplegia or paraplegia; coagulopathy; interstitial pulmonary disease; malignant tumors; use chronic systemic use of steroids, higher temperature, low O2 saturation and altered blood pressure-heart rate. The predictors of an adverse evolution were the same, with the exception of liver disease and the inclusion of cystic fibrosis. Similar predictors were found to be related to hospital admission, including liver disease, arterial hypertension, and basal prescription of immunosuppressants. Similarly, models for the whole sample, without vital signs, are presented. Conclusions We propose risk scales, based on basic information, easily-calculable, high-predictive that also function with the current Omicron variant and may help manage such patients in primary, emergency, and hospital care.This work was supported in part by the health outcomes group from Galdakao-Barrualde Health Organization; the Kronikgune Institute for Health Service Research; and the thematic network–REDISSEC (Red de Investigación en Servicios de Salud en Enfermedades Crónicas)–of the Instituto de Salud Carlos III. The work of IB was financially supported in part by grants from the Departamento de Educación, Política Lingüística y Cultura del Gobierno Vasco [IT1456-22] and by the Ministry of Science and Innovation through BCAM Severo Ochoa accreditation [CEX2021-001142-S/MICIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033] and through project [PID2020-115882RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033] funded by Agencia Estatal de Investigación and acronym “S3M1P4R” and also by the Basque Government through the BERC 2022–2025 program and the BMTF ‘‘Mathematical Modeling Applied to Health’’ Project

Using Electronic Technology to Improve Clinical Care -- Results from a Before-after Cluster Trial to Evaluate Assessment and Classification of Sick Children According to Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) Protocol in Tanzania.

Poor adherence to the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) protocol reduces the potential impact on under-five morbidity and mortality. Electronic technology could improve adherence; however there are few studies demonstrating the benefits of such technology in a resource-poor settings. This study estimates the impact of electronic technology on adherence to the IMCI protocols as compared to the current paper-based protocols in Tanzania. In four districts in Tanzania, 18 clinics were randomly selected for inclusion. At each site, observers documented critical parts of the clinical assessment of children aged 2 months to 5 years. The first set of observations occurred during examination of children using paper-based IMCI (pIMCI) and the next set of observations occurred during examination using the electronic IMCI (eIMCI). Children were re-examined by an IMCI expert and the diagnoses were compared. A total of 1221 children (671 paper, 550 electronic) were observed. For all ten critical IMCI items included in both systems, adherence to the protocol was greater for eIMCI than for pIMCI. The proportion assessed under pIMCI ranged from 61% to 98% compared to 92% to 100% under eIMCI (p < 0.05 for each of the ten assessment items). Use of electronic systems improved the completeness of assessment of children with acute illness in Tanzania. With the before-after nature of the design, potential for temporal confounding is the primary limitation. However, the data collection for both phases occurred over a short period (one month) and so temporal confounding was expected to be minimal. The results suggest that the use of electronic IMCI protocols can improve the completeness and consistency of clinical assessments and future studies will examine the long-term health and health systems impact of eIMCI

Tanzania's countdown to 2015: an analysis of two decades of progress and gaps for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health, to inform priorities for post-2015.

BACKGROUND: Tanzania is on track to meet Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 for child survival, but is making insufficient progress for newborn survival and maternal health (MDG 5) and family planning. To understand this mixed progress and to identify priorities for the post-2015 era, Tanzania was selected as a Countdown to 2015 case study. METHODS: We analysed progress made in Tanzania between 1990 and 2014 in maternal, newborn, and child mortality, and unmet need for family planning, in which we used a health systems evaluation framework to assess coverage and equity of interventions along the continuum of care, health systems, policies and investments, while also considering contextual change (eg, economic and educational). We had five objectives, which assessed each level of the health systems evaluation framework. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) and did multiple linear regression analyses to explain the reduction in child mortality in Tanzania. We analysed the reasons for the slower changes in maternal and newborn survival and family planning, to inform priorities to end preventable maternal, newborn, and child deaths by 2030. FINDINGS: In the past two decades, Tanzania's population has doubled in size, necessitating a doubling of health and social services to maintain coverage. Total health-care financing also doubled, with donor funding for child health and HIV/AIDS more than tripling. Trends along the continuum of care varied, with preventive child health services reaching high coverage (≥85%) and equity (socioeconomic status difference 13-14%), but lower coverage and wider inequities for child curative services (71% coverage, socioeconomic status difference 36%), facility delivery (52% coverage, socioeconomic status difference 56%), and family planning (46% coverage, socioeconomic status difference 22%). The LiST analysis suggested that around 39% of child mortality reduction was linked to increases in coverage of interventions, especially of immunisation and insecticide-treated bednets. Economic growth was also associated with reductions in child mortality. Child health programmes focused on selected high-impact interventions at lower levels of the health system (eg, the community and dispensary levels). Despite its high priority, implementation of maternal health care has been intermittent. Newborn survival has gained attention only since 2005, but high-impact interventions are already being implemented. Family planning had consistent policies but only recent reinvestment in implementation. INTERPRETATION: Mixed progress in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health in Tanzania indicates a complex interplay of political prioritisation, health financing, and consistent implementation. Post-2015 priorities for Tanzania should focus on the unmet need for family planning, especially in the Western and Lake regions; addressing gaps for coverage and quality of care at birth, especially in rural areas; and continuation of progress for child health. FUNDING: Government of Canada, Foreign Affairs, Trade, and Development; US Fund for UNICEF; and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Increase coverage of HIV and AIDS services in Myanmar

Myanmar is experiencing an HIV epidemic documented since the late 1980s. The National AIDS Programme national surveillance ante-natal clinics had already estimated in 1993 that 1.4% of pregnant women were HIV positive, and UNAIDS estimates that at end 2005 1.3% (range 0.7–2.0%) of the adult population was living with HIV. While a HIV surveillance system has been in place since 1992, the programmatic response to the epidemic has been slower to emerge although short- and medium-terms plans have been formulated since 1990. These early plans focused on the health sector, omitted key population groups at risk of HIV transmission and have not been adequately funded. The public health system more generally is severely under-funded

Self-build in the UK and Netherlands:mainstreaming self-development to address housing shortages?

This paper examines approaches to self or custom-build in the Netherlands and the UK to offer comparative insights into self- and custom-built housing contexts and cultures, and specifically, the relationships with local and strategic planning arrangements. The paper reviews arguments for self-build as a means to address housing shortages and examines the evidence of completions in practice. It positions the discussion in light of arguments that self-build can become a mainstream source of housing provision. The paper critically considers the role of think tanks in advocating housing policy solutions. Adopting a social constructionist perspective, the paper examines the work of the National Self-Build Association which has devised and implemented an action plan to promote the growth of self-build housing in the UK. Almere, which is located east of Amsterdam, is one of the case studies explored to inform thinking around self-build in the devolved UK. The conclusions tease out some of the implications for democratic and technocratic arguments around self-development and the right to design and build one’s home

Ionizing Radiation and Risk of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia in the 15-Country Study of Nuclear Industry Workers

In contrast to other types of leukemia, chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) has long been regarded as non-radiogenic, i.e. not caused by ionizing radiation. However, the justification for this view has been challenged. We therefore report on the relationship between CLL mortality and external ionizing radiation dose within the 15-country nuclear workers cohort study. The analyses included, in seven countries with CLL deaths, a total of 295,963 workers with more than 4.5 million person-years of follow-up and an average cumulative bone marrow dose of 15 mSv; there were 65 CLL deaths in this cohort. The relative risk (RR) at an occupational dose of 100 mSv compared to 0 mSv was 0.84 (95% CI 0.39, 1.48) under the assumption of a 10-year exposure lag. Analyses of longer lag periods showed little variation in the RR, but they included very small numbers of cases with relatively high doses. In conclusion, the largest nuclear workers cohort study to date finds little evidence for an association between low doses of external ionizing radiation and CLL mortality. This study had little power due to low doses, short follow-up periods, and uncertainties in CLL ascertainment from death certificates; an extended follow-up of the cohorts is merited and would ideally include incident cancer cases

Improving pneumonia case-management in Benin: a randomized trial of a multi-faceted intervention to support health worker adherence to Integrated Management of Childhood Illness guidelines

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pneumonia is a leading cause of death among children under five years of age. The Integrated Management of Childhood Illness strategy can improve the quality of care for pneumonia and other common illnesses in developing countries, but adherence to these guidelines could be improved. We evaluated an intervention in Benin to support health worker adherence to the guidelines after training, focusing on pneumonia case management.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a randomized trial. After a health facility survey in 1999 to assess health care quality before Integrated Management of Childhood Illness training, health workers received training plus either study supports (job aids, non-financial incentives and supervision of workers and supervisors) or "usual" supports. Follow-up surveys were conducted in 2001, 2002 and 2004. Outcomes were indicators of health care quality for Integrated Management-defined pneumonia. Further analyses included a graphical pathway analysis and multivariable logistic regression modelling to identify factors influencing case-management quality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We observed 301 consultations of children with non-severe pneumonia that were performed by 128 health workers in 88 public and private health facilities. Although outcomes improved in both intervention and control groups, we found no statistically significant difference between groups. However, training proceeded slowly, and low-quality care from untrained health workers diluted intervention effects. Per-protocol analyses suggested that health workers with training plus study supports performed better than those with training plus usual supports (20.4 and 19.2 percentage-point improvements for recommended treatment [p = 0.08] and "recommended or adequate" treatment [p = 0.01], respectively). Both groups tended to perform better than untrained health workers. Analyses of treatment errors revealed that incomplete assessment and difficulties processing clinical findings led to missed pneumonia diagnoses, and missed diagnoses led to inadequate treatment. Increased supervision frequency was associated with better care (odds ratio for recommended treatment = 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.13.9] per additional supervisory visit).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Integrated Management of Childhood Illness training was useful, but insufficient, to achieve high-quality pneumonia case management. Our study supports led to additional improvements, although large gaps in performance still remained. A simple graphical pathway analysis can identify specific, common errors that health workers make in the case-management process; this information could be used to target quality improvement activities, such as supervision (ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00510679).</p

Brain energy rescue:an emerging therapeutic concept for neurodegenerative disorders of ageing

The brain requires a continuous supply of energy in the form of ATP, most of which is produced from glucose by oxidative phosphorylation in mitochondria, complemented by aerobic glycolysis in the cytoplasm. When glucose levels are limited, ketone bodies generated in the liver and lactate derived from exercising skeletal muscle can also become important energy substrates for the brain. In neurodegenerative disorders of ageing, brain glucose metabolism deteriorates in a progressive, region-specific and disease-specific manner — a problem that is best characterized in Alzheimer disease, where it begins presymptomatically. This Review discusses the status and prospects of therapeutic strategies for countering neurodegenerative disorders of ageing by improving, preserving or rescuing brain energetics. The approaches described include restoring oxidative phosphorylation and glycolysis, increasing insulin sensitivity, correcting mitochondrial dysfunction, ketone-based interventions, acting via hormones that modulate cerebral energetics, RNA therapeutics and complementary multimodal lifestyle changes