Grazing Collisions of Black Holes via the Excision of Singularities

We present the first simulations of non-headon (grazing) collisions of binary black holes in which the black hole singularities have been excised from the computational domain. Initially two equal mass black holes $m$ are separated a distance $\approx10m$ and with impact parameter $\approx2m$. Initial data are based on superposed, boosted (velocity $\approx0.5c$) solutions of single black holes in Kerr-Schild coordinates. Both rotating and non-rotating black holes are considered. The excised regions containing the singularities are specified by following the dynamics of apparent horizons. Evolutions of up to $t \approx 35m$ are obtained in which two initially separate apparent horizons are present for $t\approx3.8m$. At that time a single enveloping apparent horizon forms, indicating that the holes have merged. Apparent horizon area estimates suggest gravitational radiation of about 2.6% of the total mass. The evolutions end after a moderate amount of time because of instabilities.Comment: 2 References corrected, reference to figure update

Evidence-based decision support for pediatric rheumatology reduces diagnostic errors.

BACKGROUND: The number of trained specialists world-wide is insufficient to serve all children with pediatric rheumatologic disorders, even in the countries with robust medical resources. We evaluated the potential of diagnostic decision support software (DDSS) to alleviate this shortage by assessing the ability of such software to improve the diagnostic accuracy of non-specialists. METHODS: Using vignettes of actual clinical cases, clinician testers generated a differential diagnosis before and after using diagnostic decision support software. The evaluation used the SimulConsult® DDSS tool, based on Bayesian pattern matching with temporal onset of each finding in each disease. The tool covered 5405 diseases (averaging 22 findings per disease). Rheumatology content in the database was developed using both primary references and textbooks. The frequency, timing, age of onset and age of disappearance of findings, as well as their incidence, treatability, and heritability were taken into account in order to guide diagnostic decision making. These capabilities allowed key information such as pertinent negatives and evolution over time to be used in the computations. Efficacy was measured by comparing whether the correct condition was included in the differential diagnosis generated by clinicians before using the software ( unaided ), versus after use of the DDSS ( aided ). RESULTS: The 26 clinicians demonstrated a significant reduction in diagnostic errors following introduction of the software, from 28% errors while unaided to 15% using decision support (p \u3c 0.0001). Improvement was greatest for emergency medicine physicians (p = 0.013) and clinicians in practice for less than 10 years (p = 0.012). This error reduction occurred despite the fact that testers employed an open book approach to generate their initial lists of potential diagnoses, spending an average of 8.6 min using printed and electronic sources of medical information before using the diagnostic software. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that decision support can reduce diagnostic errors and improve use of relevant information by generalists. Such assistance could potentially help relieve the shortage of experts in pediatric rheumatology and similarly underserved specialties by improving generalists\u27 ability to evaluate and diagnose patients presenting with musculoskeletal complaints. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT02205086

Understanding the errors of SHAPE-directed RNA structure modeling

Single-nucleotide-resolution chemical mapping for structured RNA is being rapidly advanced by new chemistries, faster readouts, and coupling to computational algorithms. Recent tests have shown that selective 2'-hydroxyl acylation by primer extension (SHAPE) can give near-zero error rates (0-2%) in modeling the helices of RNA secondary structure. Here, we benchmark the method using six molecules for which crystallographic data are available: tRNA(phe) and 5S rRNA from Escherichia coli, the P4-P6 domain of the Tetrahymena group I ribozyme, and ligand-bound domains from riboswitches for adenine, cyclic di-GMP, and glycine. SHAPE-directed modeling of these highly structured RNAs gave an overall false negative rate (FNR) of 17% and a false discovery rate (FDR) of 21%, with at least one helix prediction error in five of the six cases. Extensive variations of data processing, normalization, and modeling parameters did not significantly mitigate modeling errors. Only one varation, filtering out data collected with deoxyinosine triphosphate during primer extension, gave a modest improvement (FNR = 12%, and FDR = 14%). The residual structure modeling errors are explained by the insufficient information content of these RNAs' SHAPE data, as evaluated by a nonparametric bootstrapping analysis. Beyond these benchmark cases, bootstrapping suggests a low level of confidence (<50%) in the majority of helices in a previously proposed SHAPE-directed model for the HIV-1 RNA genome. Thus, SHAPE-directed RNA modeling is not always unambiguous, and helix-by-helix confidence estimates, as described herein, may be critical for interpreting results from this powerful methodology.Comment: Biochemistry, Article ASAP (Aug. 15, 2011

Boosted three-dimensional black-hole evolutions with singularity excision

Binary black hole interactions provide potentially the strongest source of gravitational radiation for detectors currently under development. We present some results from the Binary Black Hole Grand Challenge Alliance three- dimensional Cauchy evolution module. These constitute essential steps towards modeling such interactions and predicting gravitational radiation waveforms. We report on single black hole evolutions and the first successful demonstration of a black hole moving freely through a three-dimensional computational grid via a Cauchy evolution: a hole moving ~6M at 0.1c during a total evolution of duration ~60M

The 'At-risk mental state' for psychosis in adolescents : clinical presentation, transition and remission.

Despite increased efforts over the last decade to prospectively identify individuals at ultra-high risk of developing a psychotic illness, limited attention has been specifically directed towards adolescent populations (<18 years). In order to evaluate how those under 18 fulfilling the operationalised criteria for an At-Risk Mental State (ARMS) present and fare over time, we conducted an observational study. Participants (N = 30) generally reported a high degree of functional disability and frequent and distressing perceptual disturbance, mainly in the form of auditory hallucinations. Seventy percent (21/30) were found to fulfil the criteria for a co-morbid ICD-10 listed mental health disorder, with mood (affective; 13/30) disorders being most prevalent. Overall transition rates to psychosis were low at 24 months follow-up (2/28; 7.1 %) whilst many participants demonstrated a significant reduction in psychotic-like symptoms. The generalisation of these findings may be limited due to the small sample size and require replication in a larger sample

Pipamperone Population Pharmacokinetics Related to Effectiveness and Side Effects in Children and Adolescents

Background: Pipamperone is a frequently prescribed antipsychotic in children and adolescents in the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany. However, pediatric pharmacokinetics and the relationship with side effects and efficacy are unknown. Currently, divergent pediatric dosing recommendations exist. Objectives: The objective of this study was to describe the population pharmacokinetics of pipamperone in children and adolescents; to correlate measured and predicted pipamperone trough concentrations and predicted 24-h area under the curves with effectiveness, extrapyramidal symptoms, and sedation; and to propose dose recommendations based on simulations. Methods: Pipamperone concentrations were collected from Dutch pediatric patients in a prospective naturalistic trial (n = 8), and German pediatric patients in a therapeutic drug monitoring service (n = 22). A total of 70 pipamperone concentrations were used to develop a population pharmacokinetic model with non-linear mixed-effects modeling (NONMEM®). Additionally, an additional random sample of 21 German patients with 33 pipamperone concentrations from the same therapeutic drug monitoring service was used for external validation. Pharmacokinetic parameters were related to clinical improvement, sedation, and extrapyramidal symptoms. Simulations were performed to determine optimal dosages. Results: In a one-compartment model, the apparent volume of distribution was 416 L/70 kg and the apparent clearance was 22.1 L/h/70 kg. Allometric scaling was used to correct for differences in bodyweight. The model was successfully externally validated. The median [25th–75th percentile] measured pipamperone trough concentrations were numerically higher in responders (98.0 µg/L [56.0–180.5 µg/L]) than in non-responders (58.0 µg/L [14.9–105.5 µg/L]), although non-significant (p = 0.14). A twice-daily 0.6-mg/kg dosage was better than a fixed dosage to attain the concentration range observed in responders. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that pipamperone therapeutic reference ranges may be lower for children with behavioral problems than recommended for adults with psychotic symptoms (100–400 µg/L). When dosing pipamperone in children and adolescents, bodyweight should be taken into account

Stable characteristic evolution of generic 3-dimensional single-black-hole spacetimes

We report new results which establish that the accurate 3-dimensional numerical simulation of generic single-black-hole spacetimes has been achieved by characteristic evolution with unlimited long term stability. Our results cover a selection of distorted, moving and spinning single black holes, with evolution times up to 60,000M.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Type and duration of subsyndromal symptoms in youth with bipolar I disorder prior to their first manic episode

Objectives: The aim of the present study was to systematically evaluate the prodrome to mania in youth. Methods: New-onset/worsening symptoms/signs of \u3e= moderate severity preceding first mania were systematically assessed in 52 youth (16.2 +/- 2.8 years) with a research diagnosis of bipolar I disorder (BD-I). Youth and/or caregivers underwent semi-structured interviews, using the Bipolar Prodrome Symptom Scale-Retrospective. Results: The mania prodrome was reported to start gradually in most youth (88.5%), with either slow (59.6%) or rapid (28.8%) deterioration, while a rapid-onset-and-deterioration prodrome was rare (11.5%). The manic prodrome, conservatively defined as requiring \u3e= 3 symptoms, lasted 10.3 +/- 14.4 months [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.3-14.4], being present for \u3e= 4 months in 65.4% of subjects. Among prodromal symptoms reported in \u3e= 50% of youth, three were subthreshold manic in nature (irritability: 61.5%, racing thoughts: 59.6%, increased energy/activity: 50.0%), two were nonspecific (decreased school/work functioning: 65.4%, mood swings/lability: 57.7%), and one each was depressive (depressed mood: 53.8%) or subthreshold manic/depressive (inattention: 51.9%). A decreasing number of youth had \u3e= 1 (84.6%), \u3e= 2 (48.1%), or \u3e= 3 (26.9%) \u27specific\u27 subthreshold mania symptoms (i.e., elation, grandiosity, decreased need for sleep, racing thoughts, or hypersexuality), lasting 9.5 +/- 14.9 months (95% CI: 5.0-14.0), 3.5 +/- 3.5 months (95% CI: 2.0-4.9), and 3.0 +/- 3.2 months (95% CI: 1.0-5.0) for \u3e= 1, \u3e= 2, or \u3e= 3 specific symptoms, respectively. Conclusions: In youth with BD-I, a relatively long, predominantly slowonset mania prodrome appears to be common, including subthreshold manic and depressive psychopathology symptoms. This suggests that early clinical identification and intervention may be feasible in bipolar disorder. Identifying biological markers associated with clinical symptoms of impending mania may help to increase chances for early detection and prevention before full mania

Changes in Telepsychiatry Regulations during the COVID-19 Pandemic: 17 Countries and Regions' Approaches to an Evolving Healthcare Landscape

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the use of telemedicine as a way to reduce COVID-19 infections was noted and consequently deregulated. However, the degree of telemedicine regulation varies from country to country, which may alter the widespread use of telemediine. This study aimed to clarify the telepsychiatry regulations for each collaborating country/region before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We used snowball sampling within a global network of international telepsychiatry experts. Thirty collaborators from 17 different countries/regions responded to a questionnaire on barriers to the use and implementation of telepsychiatric care, including policy factors such as regulations and reimbursement at the end of 2019 and as of May 2020. Results: Thirteen of 17 regions reported a relaxation of regulations due to the pandemic; consequently, all regions surveyed stated that telepsychiatry was now possible within their public healthcare systems. In some regions, restrictions on prescription medications allowed via telepsychiatry were eased, but in 11 of the 17 regions, there were still restrictions on prescribing medications via telepsychiatry. Lower insurance reimbursement amounts for telepsychiatry consultations versus in-person consultations were reevaluated in 4 regions, and consequently, in 15 regions telepsychiatry services were reimbursed at the same rate (or higher) than in-person consultations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: Our results confirm that, due to COVID-19, the majority of countries surveyed are altering telemedicine regulations that had previously restricted the spread of telemedicine. These findings provide information that could guide future policy and regulatory decisions, that facilitate greater scale and spread of telepsychiatry globally

Gravitational wave extraction and outer boundary conditions by perturbative matching

We present a method for extracting gravitational radiation from a three-dimensional numerical relativity simulation and, using the extracted data, to provide outer boundary conditions. The method treats dynamical gravitational variables as nonspherical perturbations of Schwarzschild geometry. We discuss a code which implements this method and present results of tests which have been performed with a three dimensional numerical relativity code