Modeling the effect of blending multiple components on gasoline properties

Global CO2 emissions reached a new historical maximum in 2018 and transportation sector contributed to one fourth of those emissions. Road transport industry has started moving towards more sustainable solutions, however, market penetration for electric vehicles (EV) is still too slow while regulation for biofuels has become stricter due to the risk of inflated food prices and skepticism regarding their sustainability. In spite of this, Europe has ambitious targets for the next 30 years and impending strict policies resulting from these goals will definitely increase the pressure on the oil sector to move towards cleaner practices and products. Although the use of biodiesel is quite extended and bioethanol is already used as a gasoline component, there are no alternative drop-in fuels compatible with spark ignition engines in the market yet. Alternative feedstock is widely available but its characteristics differ from those of crude oil, and lack of homogeneity and substantially lower availability complicate its integration in conventional refining processes. This work explores the possibility of implementing Machine Learning to develop predictive models for auto-ignition properties and to gain a better understanding of the blending behavior of the different molecules that conform commercial gasoline. Additionally, the methodology developed in this study aims to contribute to new characterization methods for conventional and renewable gasoline streams in a simpler, faster and more inexpensive way. To build the models included in this thesis, a palette with seven different compounds was chosen: n-heptane, iso-octane, 1-hexene, cyclopentane, toluene, ethanol and ETBE. A data set containing 243 different combinations of the species in the palette was collected from literature, together with their experimentally measured RON and/or MON. Linear Regression based on Ordinary Least Squares was used as the baseline to compare the performance of more complex algorithms, namely Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machines, Decision Trees and Random Forest. The best predictions were obtained with a Support Vector Regression algorithm using a non-linear kernel, able to reproduce synergistic and antagonistic interaction between the seven molecules in the samples

Formulas for Consumer Price Index at the elementary aggregate - A new proposal from the economic point of view

The price level in the aggregate economy and, more concretely, controlling its changes, has become one of the high-priority objectives within the framework of the regional macroeconomic analysis. Its different evolution could modify the interregional capital and commercial flows, being able to cause strong shocks, and of asymmetric nature, in each economy. The first step to reach this objective is obtaining a trustworthy and comparable measurement of the inflation in the different regions to be compared. The Index Number Theory is then used to calculate Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) the regional level. The calculation of CPI is made, at least, in two phases. In the first one, Elementary Price Index is considered (EPI). In the second and later phases, these EPI are combined, along with weighting information based on household’s expenditure, to obtain CPI for different aggregation levels to the country level. As previous step to the calculation of the IPE and CPI, the set of goods and services has to be defined based on households’ consumption behaviour. These sets are grouped in layers, named elementary aggregates, based on their homogeneity of satisfying consumer’s necessities. The COICOP (Classification Of Individual Consumption by Purpose) has important implications at the time of analyzing the behaviour of the consumer within each elementary aggregate, because of a high possibility of substitution between products. Nevertheless, this possibility diminishes and can get to be null when the goods and services satisfy necessities with very different nature. Whether what is wanted it is to calculate an EPI that correctly reflects the consumer behaviour, the described homogenous character cannot be forgotten, especially if, in addition, we take into account that National Statistics Agencies have no expenditure information available for weighting purposes, only data of prices to calculate EPI. This paper is focussed on analysis of the formula used to obtain the IPE, with the limitations of available information just commented. The election of the formula for the IPE has not been widely studied in the economic literature, being the proposal by Carli in 1764 and Dutot in 1738 [ extracted Reference of OIT (2003), chapter 20, pages 12-13 ] the most often used for practical purposes. Nevertheless, Fisher (1922) had already recommended not using the Carli’s formula because of the bias to the rise that it introduces [Fisher (1922), pages 29-30]. Throughout the 20th century different authors has continued looking for the ideal formula extending possible approaches to the subject: the approach of Divisia, the stochastic approach, the economic approach and the axiomatic approach. The final summary of these studies can be synthesized in "Toward to Dwells Accurate Measure of The Cost of Living” by the Advisory Commission To The Study The Consumer Price Index presented in 1996. This report, also known as Boskin’s Report, suggests the use of geometric mean price indices at the elementary aggregate for the EPI, this formula is attributed to Jevons in 1983 [OIT (2003), chapter 20, pages 12-13 ]. In the present paper, we demonstrate that all usually formulas for the calculation of the IPE are incoherent with the theory of consumer behaviour, in an aggregate characterized by the high level of substitution caused by homogeneity in the consumption purpose. In addition, the formula proposed by Rodriguez, González and Rodriguez (2004), is not only superior from the axiomatic point of view, but also from the economic approach, is the only one that is able to reflect the expected consumer behaviour.

A measurement to analyze the relative change in the Absolute Parity of Power Purchase: An application to the European Union

In the present paper an index to measure the changes in the Absolute Purchasing Power Parity. in the short term of a group of territories that conform an unique market, using the information of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices and the Exchange Rates. This measurement is utilized to study the change in relative prices of the countries of the European Union for the period 1991-2002, and the fulfillment of the theory of the Relative Purchasing Power Parity, taking as a reference the Absolute Purchasing Power Parity in the reference time of the Price Index. The difficulties found to do these comparisons have given rise to multitude of jobs that can be classified in two large groups. In the first group are the efforts focused to find the best instrument to do comparable the figures of the distinct economies. In this line, it is emphasized the use and the advances in the index numbers theory [for a historic revision applied to price index see Diewert, W. (1993), for a theoretical revision see Balk, B. (1995) and Hill, T. (1988)] and the jobs carried out in the International Program of Comparison (ICP), program belonging to the statistical division of United Nations with near 35 years of life, and whose objective is to produce estimations of the National Gross Product and its components, that can be comparable among countries in real terms. It utilizes the concept of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), [UN (1992)]. In the same line, the European Program of Comparison is developed by Eurostat and the OCDE since 1980. In the second group the investigations based in the unit price law and the theory of of the PPP to explain the behavior of the rate of change among two or more countries. In this case, the objective is focused in the analysis of the economic implications of its fulfillment or not, and how being able to test its fulfillment [Cheung, AND W., Lai, K. (2000), Engel, C. (2000), Reads, M. (1976), Taylor, A. (2001)] This job is inside of the first group of investigations. An index is defined to reflect changes in the Relative Purchasing Power Parity among a group of countries that do not share a common currency. This measurement can be obtained from Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), and from the Exchange Rates among the currencies of the distinct countries. The results show the strong distorting effect that exchange rate has upon the Purchasing Power Parity among countries. The evolution of the internal prices of each country is a residual factor to explain the changes in the Purchasing Power Parity. In this sense, the apparition of euro contributes to a clear stability for the consumers whose countries have adopted the euro than those that have not adopted yet. However, in the euro zone systematic behaviours in some of the countries are detected that indicate that, their Purchasing Power Parity is changing in a systematic way, with regard to the average Purchasing Power Parity of the Monetary Union.

Markov Chain approach to Purchasing Power Convergence in the 15 European Union

In the present paper we study the degree of convergence in the European Union from the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) point of view. The price of the shopping basket can be the cause of disparities in a global market in construction that, like the European Union, is formed by different countries with different consumption habits. In addition, in this construction process twelve out of fifteen countries of the EU have left its national currency to adopt the Euro like common currency. Therefore, it is necessary for the stability of the Union process in the long run that, among others, purchasing power of the different state members tends towards a same common value. Moreover, the question is whether that process of convergence within the European Union is taking place or not. In order to solve this question, the series of the Absolute Purchasing Power Parity (APPP) are estimated through the suggestion of Rodriguez et al (2004). These authors use the Harmonized Consumer Price Index in the European Union and the nominal exchange rates of the different currencies with euro. Monthly estimates of the APPP series for the 1995-2002 period are obtained for each of the fifteen countries. These figures show, for each country, their relative position to the average value of the European Union. Using these series we applied the Markov Chain methodology to study the time evolution of the distribution of APPP in the European Union. This methodology has been very used by its facility of calculation and interpretation of the results. Nevertheless, with the purpose of obtaining good estimations it is necessary to solve the discretization problem of a continuous variable. This is, to use a finite set, and relatively small number of states, for a variable with infinite values. In the present work different approaches are used to solve the problem. We test for structural change on the estimated probabilities using adapted test to Markov Chains. This allows us to study if an effect exists on the Purchasing Power Parity with the entrance of the Euro. Markov Chains are estimated by Maximum likelihood, and allow us to do different analyses. In the first place, we can study the mobility of the distribution, measured through the probabilities of permanence or not in the same state, and in the degree of diagonal structure of the resulting matrix. This objective can obtained by direct observation, calculating Mobility Index, or using expected time of first passage. Secondly, we can obtain the ergodic or long term distribution. This one shows the temporary evolution in the long run of the distribution, under the hypothesis of maintenance of the present conditions. This distribution would show the possible convergence or not of the whole distribution. We also estimate elasticities of ergodic probabilities, to analyze the effect of each probability in the Markov chain in the long run distribution. Results show differences with the Euro Entry, mobility towards convergence within the distribution is slow, with high elasticities of the ergodic distribution to changes in the transition probabilities.

Titularización de predios con viviendas levantadas mediante el sistema de autoconstrucción, en el área urbana del municipio de Abejorral

La vivienda es un factor determinante de desarrollo social y económico, en tanto se le considera como alternativa eficaz para disminuir la pobreza, reactivar la economía e inclusive generar empleo. Planteamiento éste que para el caso del presente trabajo conlleva particulares connotaciones, puesto que ciertamente el deseable proceso de titularización de predios previsto a nivel del municipio de Abejorral va a permitir mejor calidad de vida para los destinatarios del mismo, fortaleciéndose en parte de este modo la economía local y quizá se pudieran producir opciones de empleo con ocasión del mejoramiento físico de las construcciones ya levantadas y de la prestación y/o legalización de los servicios públicos domiciliarios para estas viviendas. Todo ello, como es apenas lógico, sin apartarse del marco general del Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial del municipio y de las deseables respuestas que, en materia socioeconómica y ambiental, la administración está llamada a ofrecer en forma oportuna y eficaz. La vivienda es el bien más costoso, pero igual el más deseado por la mayoría de las gentes, que en el transcurso de la vida aspiran a adquirirla para beneficio individual y familiar; de ahí –entre otras razones– la importancia de adelantar la titularización para los destinatarios de este proyecto, de modo que además de satisfacer una legítima aspiración, una vez obtenida la condición de propietarios puedan acceder con facilidades a todos los beneficios individuales, sociales, económicos y legales que tal condición implica. Por tanto, en este sentido bien podría hablarse –como dice Noguera (s.f.:14)– de un interés social como fundamento del derecho a la propiedad legal de su vivienda para los beneficiarios de la titularización aquí contemplada; un interés social basado en la necesidad, siempre apremiante y universal, de incremento de la producción para conseguir principalmente un mayor perfeccionamiento en la satisfacción de necesidades tanto individuales como familiares. En el contexto mundial –y Colombia no escapa a esta realidad– los bajos niveles de acceso a la vivienda y de materialización del derecho de propiedad respecto de la misma, llevaron hace ya tiempo al Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) a formular estrategias para mejorar las políticas de vivienda y en especial políticas para el subsidio de vivienda, tales como: regularización de la tenencia de la tierra, privatización de las viviendas estatales, impuestos sobre la propiedad, autorización de los préstamos del sector privado a tasas favorables y de mercado, ampliación de las leyes de ejecución de hipotecas, introducción de instrumentos mejorados de préstamo, creación de subsidios transparentes, concentración en los niveles poblacionales pobres, subvención de las personas y no de las casas, examen de los subsidios, construcción de vivienda destinada a los más necesitados (Mayo, 1994:46). Desde sus comienzos, en nuestro medio las políticas de vivienda de interés social han tenido amplia significación; condición que en el caso presente se ve materializada en las viviendas levantadas por autoconstrucción en el municipio de Abejorral (Antioquia), hoy en día pendientes de titularización respecto de los predios por ellas ocupados. Respecto de esta última, se trata de un proceso que en buena medida representa papel importante en la reducción del déficit de vivienda a nivel municipal y/o del mejoramiento de la misma; no es tarea fácil llevarlo a cabo puesto que la insuficiencia de recursos públicos para subsidios orientados a satisfacer necesidades relativas a la vivienda aparece no pocas veces como factor negativo determinante, que es precisamente lo ocurrido en este y otros municipios a nivel nacional. No obstante, la voluntad de la administración ha procurado allanar dificultades y precisamente ahora, luego de contar con la información pertinente, con recursos propios y con la posibilidad de gestionar recursos económicos y logísticos requeridos para adelantar el proceso de titularización, se abre para los actuales poseedores de las viviendas objeto de trámite, la oportunidad real de legalizarlas y, de este modo, con la colaboración de la administración, asegurar su patrimonio que es fruto de múltiples y variados esfuerzos. Desde el punto de vista de su presentación formal, el trabajo incluye cuatro capítulos cuyo contenido se discrimina así: el primero ofrece la presentación general, en términos de problema –objetivos - justificación – hipótesis – metodología – delimitación – alcances; el segundo capítulo desarrolla el marco teórico, con particular énfasis en los temas de derecho a la propiedad y la vivienda, aunque sin desconocer otros no menos importantes como el tratamiento jurisprudencial, algunos elementos del derecho urbano y la definición de términos significativos en el caso presente; a efectos de contextualizar el proyecto, el capítulo tercero da cuenta de los factores de identificación y datos básicos del municipio de Abejorral; finalmente, el capítulo cuatro relaciona los diferentes aspectos metodológicos y funcionales que deben tenerse en cuenta para la efectiva ejecución del proyecto y lograr la satisfacción del objetivo prioritario del mismo, cual es la legalización de las viviendas objeto de trámite

Factores determinantes del precio del kiwi chileno, cv. Hayward, en los mercados de exportacion

44 p.El objetivo general de este trabajo fue: estimar una función de precios hedónicos para las características más sobresalientes o relevantes del kiwi cv. Hayward que se comercializa en el exterior. Siendo los objetivos especificas, estimar el impacto porcentual en el precio de kiwi de exportación, de: a) la categoría elipsoidal (E) o planos (P), b) el calibre c) el mes de exportación marzo (mar), abril (abr) mayo (may), junio (jun), julio (jul), agosto (ago) y septiembre (sep), d) lugar de destino Latino América (LA), Lejano Oriente (LO), Medio Oriente (MO), Europa (Eur), México (Mex) y Canadá (Can) y e) año de exportación año 2005 (ano 05), año 2006 (ano 06), año 2007 (año 07). Para el logro de estos objetivos se revisaron los boletines de exportación de las temporadas 2005,2006, 2007 de la empresa exportadora Subsole S.A. Se recolectaron 1.490 datos, los que fueron tabulados en una planilla Excel. Empleando una forma funcional semilogarítmica se estimó la siguiente función de precios hedónicos, donde In P es el logaritmo natural del precio (US $/Kg.). Esta función explica en un 50 por ciento la variación en los precios del kiwi cv. Hayward exportado. Con la excepción de los coeficientes del destino Medio Oriente, Europa,México, y los años 2006 y 2007, todos los coeficientes de regresión son estadísticamente distintos de cero con un 95 por ciento de confianza o más. Las principales conclusiones del estudio fueron: Existe una función hedónica entre precio y las variables calibre, forma, destino, mes y año de comercialización, la que permitió estimar el precio marginal en el caso de los calibres, el precio marginal para los diferentes meses de comercialización y el impacto porcentual de los destinos a los que se realizan los envíos. O La variable más influyente en el precio del kiwi cv. Hayward es el mes de comercialización. Ventas tempranas, en marzo o abril, deberían ser preferidas a ventas en meses posteriores de la temporada. O Existen también puertos de destino con influencia sobre el precio como es el caso del Lejano Oriente con efectos positivos y Canadá y Latino América con efecto negativo. La forma del kiwi tiene un impacto porcentual relativamente bajo. El precio de un kiwi elipsoidal es menor que el precio de un kiwi plano. Otra variable de efecto negativo es el calibre, es decir, la fruta de menor tamaño estaría siendo castigada por el consumidor

Uniform in time solutions for a chemotaxis with potential consumption model

In this work we investigate the following chemo-attraction with consumption model in bounded domains of \, $\mathbb{R}^N$ ($N=1,2,3$): $$\partial_t u - \Delta u = - \nabla \cdot (u \nabla v), \quad \partial_t v - \Delta v = - u^s v$$ where $s\ge 1$, endowed with isolated boundary conditions and initial conditions for $(u,v)$. The main novelty in the model is the nonlinear potential consumption term $u^sv$. Through the convergence of solutions of an adequate truncated model, two main results are established; existence of uniform in time weak solutions in $3D$ domains, and uniqueness and regularity in $2D$ (or $1D$) domains. Both results are proved imposing minimal regularity assumptions on the boundary of the domain

Transnational corporations and human rights: an institutional responsibilities framework

This thesis argues that transnational corporations (TNCs) bear primarily negative moral duties in relation to human rights, i.e. to avoid doing harm, and that they can be held responsible when they fail to discharge such duties. Thus, their duties are not primarily to protect human rights, as some commentators have argued. To defend the negative duties claim, I detail ways in which corporations inflict harm not only directly through their operations, but also by shaping and supporting a global institutional arrangement that foreseeably and avoidably produces human rights harms. Therefore, the negative duties of corporations should be understood to include refraining from engaging in harmful institutional practices, or participating overall in a harmful institutional order without providing adequate compensation to the victims of harm. If they fail to do so, TNCs can be held accountable for the negative outcomes engendered by the global order

Plantas útiles en una comunidad indígena Murui-Muinane desplazada a la ciudad de Florencia (Caquetá Colombia)

Ethnobotanical studies on the displaced indigenous groups of Colombia are scarce. This research report provides a list of 54 plant species (50 genera in 32 families) used by a displaced group of Murui-Muinane (= Witoto, Uitoto, Huitoto) that lives in the city of Florencia, capital of the Department of Caqueta. Only six (11%) plant species are not native to the Americas. Arecaceae and Fabaceae were the families with the highest number of species: eight and six respectively. The three categories of use with the highest number of species were: food (27 spp.), medicinal (15) and handicrafts (15). These 54 plant species used by the Murui in Florencia correspond to 19% of the total number of plants recorded as used by a Murui community that lives in a forested reservation in the Department of Putumayo. Such difference in the number of useful plants is noteworthy given that Colombian indigenous cultures are rapidly transforming and their ethnobotanical knowledge might be lost forever