Stock Index Returns' Density Prediction using GARCH Models: Frequentist or Bayesian Estimation?

Using well-known GARCH models for density prediction of daily S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 index returns, a comparison is provided between frequentist and Bayesian estimation. No significant difference is found between the qualities of the forecasts of the whole density, whereas the Bayesian approach exhibits significantly better left-tail forecast accuracy

Spin fragmentation of Bose-Einstein condensates with antiferromagnetic interactions

We study spin fragmentation of an antiferromagnetic spin 1 condensate in the presence of a quadratic Zeeman (QZ) effect breaking spin rotational symmetry. We describe how the QZ effect turns a fragmented spin state, with large fluctuations of the Zeemans populations, into a regular polar condensate, where atoms all condense in the $m=0$ state along the field direction. We calculate the average value and variance of the Zeeman state $m=0$ to illustrate clearly the crossover from a fragmented to an unfragmented state. The typical width of this crossover is $q \sim k_B T/N$, where $q$ is the QZ energy, $T$ the spin temperature and $N$ the atom number. This shows that spin fluctuations are a mesoscopic effect that will not survive in the thermodynamic limit $N\rightarrow \infty$, but are observable for sufficiently small atom number.Comment: submitted to NJ

Variability of resource partitioning in sympatric tropical boobies

International audienceInter- and intraspecific competition can lead to resource partitioning in sympatric species, processes likely affected by environmental productivity and population size. We investigated the foraging behaviour and diet of masked (Sula dactylatra) and red-footed (S. sula) boobies at Tromelin Island, western Indian Ocean, to examine the role of resource partitioning in the foraging strategies of these sympatric species in an extreme oligotrophic environment. We compared our results to published studies with differing environmental conditions or population sizes. We used GPS loggers and Argos transmitters to track foraging movements and used time-depth recorders to estimate dive depths. Masked boobies travelled further and at faster rates than red-footed boobies, and sexes did not differ in foraging behaviour. Based on randomization tests, the foraging range of each species (95% utilization distribution; UD) overlapped significantly. However, at core foraging areas (50% and 25% UD), interspecific segregation was greater than expected by chance alone. No intraspecific spatial segregation was detected between sexes. Environmental characteristics of area-restricted search zones differed between species, but not sexes; masked boobies utilized warmer, deeper, and less windy oceanic environments than red-footed boobies. Masked boobies attained greater diving depths than red-footed boobies and consumed primarily flying fish, whereas red-footed boobies consumed mostly squid. Red-footed and masked boobies breeding in the extreme oligotrophic environment near Tromelin demonstrated greater dietary partitioning differences in foraging ranges compared to a less oligotrophic environment. This suggests that environmental productivity may play a role in processes of resource partitioning in these sympatric species

p53 requires the stress sensor USF1 to direct appropriate cell fate decision

Genomic instability is a major hallmark of cancer. To maintain genomic integrity, cells are equipped with dedicated sensors to monitor DNA repair or to force damaged cells into death programs. The tumor suppressor p53 is central in this process. Here, we report that the ubiquitous transcription factor Upstream Stimulatory factor 1 (USF1) coordinates p53 function in making proper cell fate decisions. USF1 stabilizes the p53 protein and promotes a transient cell cycle arrest, in the presence of DNA damage. Thus, cell proliferation is maintained inappropriately in Usf1 KO mice and in USF1-deficient melanoma cells challenged by genotoxic stress. We further demonstrate that the loss of USF1 compromises p53 stability by enhancing p53-MDM2 complex formation and MDM2-mediated degradation of p53. In USF1-deficient cells, the level of p53 can be restored by the re-expression of full-length USF1 protein similarly to what is observed using Nutlin-3, a specific inhibitor that prevents p53-MDM2 interaction. Consistent with a new function for USF1, a USF1 truncated protein lacking its DNA-binding and transactivation domains can also restore the induction and activity of p53. These findings establish that p53 function requires the ubiquitous stress sensor USF1 for appropriate cell fate decisions in response to DNA-damage. They underscore the new role of USF1 and give new clues of how p53 loss of function can occur in any cell type. Finally, these findings are of clinical relevance because they provide new therapeutic prospects in stabilizing and reactivating the p53 pathway

New challenges to improve organic bread wheat production in Europe

The total organic area in the EU-27 had an annual average growth rate of nearly 15% from 1998 to 2006 with winter wheat being the most important cereal crop. Wheat yield in organic farming is around 30% to 70% of yield of conventional farming but higher premia for organic wheat may to some extent compensate for this. Bread wheat is grown in a variety of crop rotations and farming systems and four basic organic crop production systems have been defined. Nitrogen deficiency and weed infestation are considered to be the most serious threat in organic wheat production. Organic wheat producers will have to fulfil the technological needs of bakers although the requirements differ widely from small artisan bakers to large enterprises handling the organic bread processing. To maintain and expand organic wheat production, there is a need to control weed population, manage nitrogen nutrition and maintain crop diversity in the cropping system. In order to obtain a share in the premium price of organic wheat products, farmers may involve in further processing and marketing

Delivery of Dark Material to Vesta via Carbonaceous Chondritic Impacts

NASA's Dawn spacecraft observations of asteroid (4) Vesta reveal a surface with the highest albedo and color variation of any asteroid we have observed so far. Terrains rich in low albedo dark material (DM) have been identified using Dawn Framing Camera (FC) 0.75 {\mu}m filter images in several geologic settings: associated with impact craters (in the ejecta blanket material and/or on the crater walls and rims); as flow-like deposits or rays commonly associated with topographic highs; and as dark spots (likely secondary impacts) nearby impact craters. This DM could be a relic of ancient volcanic activity or exogenic in origin. We report that the majority of the spectra of DM are similar to carbonaceous chondrite meteorites mixed with materials indigenous to Vesta. Using high-resolution seven color images we compared DM color properties (albedo, band depth) with laboratory measurements of possible analog materials. Band depth and albedo of DM are identical to those of carbonaceous chondrite xenolith-rich howardite Mt. Pratt (PRA) 04401. Laboratory mixtures of Murchison CM2 carbonaceous chondrite and basaltic eucrite Millbillillie also show band depth and albedo affinity to DM. Modeling of carbonaceous chondrite abundance in DM (1-6 vol%) is consistent with howardite meteorites. We find no evidence for large-scale volcanism (exposed dikes/pyroclastic falls) as the source of DM. Our modeling efforts using impact crater scaling laws and numerical models of ejecta reaccretion suggest the delivery and emplacement of this DM on Vesta during the formation of the ~400 km Veneneia basin by a low-velocity (<2 km/sec) carbonaceous impactor. This discovery is important because it strengthens the long-held idea that primitive bodies are the source of carbon and probably volatiles in the early Solar System.Comment: Icarus (Accepted) Pages: 58 Figures: 15 Tables: