Increasing trends in fecundity and calf survival of bottlenose dolphins in a marine protected area

We are indebted to Bill Kendall who provided critical input to the development of these analyses while LSC was visiting Colorado State University. Scottish Natural Heritage, Whale and Dolphin Conservation, Talisman Energy (UK) Ltd., Department of Energy and Climate Change, Chevron, Beatrice Offshore Windfarm Ltd., Moray Offshore Renewables Ltd., Marine Scotland, The Crown Estate and Highlands and Islands Enterprise all provided funding for photo-identification surveys. Many thanks to all the colleagues who have helped collect data for this long-term study. Survey work was conducted under Scottish Natural Heritage Animal Scientific Licences.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Surreptitious sympatry:Exploring the ecological and genetic separation of two sibling species

Climate change is having profound impacts on animal populations, and shifts in geographic range are predicted in response. Shifts that result in range overlap between previously allopatric congeneric species may have consequences for biodiversity through interspecific competition, hybridization, and genetic introgression. Harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) and spotted seals (Phoca largha) are parapatric sibling species and areas of co‐occurrence at the edges of their range, such as Bristol Bay, Alaska, offer a unique opportunity to explore ecological separation and discuss potential consequences of increased range overlap resulting from retreating sea ice. Using telemetry and genetic data from 14 harbor seals and six spotted seals, we explored the ecological and genetic separation of the two species by comparing their utilization distributions, distance from haul‐out, dive behavior (e.g., depth, duration, focus), and evidence of hybridization. Firstly, we show that harbor and spotted seals, which cannot be visually distinguished definitively in all cases, haul‐out together side by side in Bristol Bay from late summer to early winter. Secondly, we observed subtle rather than pronounced differences in ranging patterns and dive behavior during this period. Thirdly, most spotted seals in this study remained close to shore in contrast to what is known of the species in more northern areas, and lastly, we did not find any evidence of hybridization. The lack of distinct ecological separation in this area of sympatry suggests that interspecific competition could play an important role in the persistence of these species, particularly if range overlap will increase as a result of climate‐induced range shifts and loss of spotted seal pagophilic breeding habitat. Our results also highlight the added complexities in monitoring these species in areas of suspected overlap, as they cannot easily be distinguished without genetic analysis. Predicted climate‐induced environmental change will likely influence the spatial and temporal extent of overlap in these two sibling species. Ultimately, this may alter the balance between current isolating mechanisms with consequences for species integrity and fitness

Use of state-space modelling to identify ecological covariates associated with trends in pinniped demography

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank all those who shared data with us: Bob Swan for the kittiwake data, Eileen Bresnan for the biotoxin data and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Center for Atmospheric Research for SST and NAO data respectively. We thank Dave Thompson, Callan Duck and Chris Morris for their help in understanding and organizing survey data, and Marine Scotland for funding this work. Funding Information Marine Scotland. Grant Number: MMSS/001/11Peer reviewedPostprintPostprin

Predicting the spatial expansion of an animal population with presence-only data

Abstract Predictive models can improve the efficiency of wildlife management by guiding actions at the local, landscape and regional scales. In recent decades, a vast range of modelling techniques have been developed to predict species distributions and patterns of population spread. However, data limitations often constrain the precision and biological realism of models, which make them less useful for supporting decision‐making. Complex models can also be challenging to evaluate, and the results are often difficult to interpret for wildlife management practitioners. There is therefore a need to develop techniques that are appropriately robust, but also accessible to a range of end users. We developed a hybrid species distribution model that utilises commonly available presence‐only distribution data and minimal demographic information to predict the spread of roe deer (Capreolus caprelous) in Great Britain. We take a novel approach to representing the environment in the model by constraining the size of habitat patches to the home‐range area of an individual. Population dynamics are then simplified to a set of generic rules describing patch occupancy. The model is constructed and evaluated using data from a populated region (England and Scotland) and applied to predict regional‐scale patterns of spread in a novel region (Wales). It is used to forecast the relative timing of colonisation events and identify important areas for targeted surveillance and management. The study demonstrates the utility of presence‐only data for predicting the spread of animal species and describes a method of reducing model complexity while retaining important environmental detail and biological realism. Our modelling approach provides a much‐needed opportunity for users without specialist expertise in computer coding to leverage limited data and make robust, easily interpretable predictions of spread to inform proactive population management

The effects of population management on wild ungulates: A systematic map of evidence for UK species

INTRODUCTION: Over recent decades, the abundance and geographic ranges of wild ungulate species have expanded in many parts of Europe, including the UK. Populations are managed to mitigate their ecological impacts using interventions, such as shooting, fencing and administering contraception. Predicting how target species will respond to interventions is critical for developing sustainable, effective and efficient management strategies. However, the quantity and quality of evidence of the effects of interventions on ungulate species is unclear. To address this, we systematically mapped research on the effects of population management on wild ungulate species resident in the UK. METHODS: We searched four bibliographic databases, Google Scholar and nine organisational websites using search terms tested with a library of 30 relevant articles. Worldwide published peer-reviewed articles were considered, supplemented by ‘grey’ literature from UK-based sources. Three reviewers identified and screened articles for eligibility at title, abstract and full-text levels, based on predefined criteria. Data and metadata were extracted and summarised in a narrative synthesis supported by structured graphical matrices. RESULTS: A total of 123 articles were included in the systematic map. Lethal interventions were better represented (85%, n = 105) than non-lethal interventions (25%, n = 25). Outcomes related to demography and behaviour were reported in 95% of articles (n = 117), whereas effects on health, physiology and morphology were studied in only 11% of articles (n = 14). Well-studied species included wild pigs (n = 58), red deer (n = 28) and roe deer (n = 23). CONCLUSIONS: Evidence for the effects of population management on wild ungulate species is growing but currently limited and unevenly distributed across intervention types, outcomes and species. Priorities for primary research include: species responses to non-lethal interventions, the side-effects of shooting and studies on sika deer and Chinese muntjac. Shooting is the only intervention for which sufficient evidence exists for systematic review or meta-analysis

Social Disruption Impairs Predatory Threat Assessment in African Elephants

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The sharing of social and ecological information is vitally important for group-living animals, especially among cognitively advanced species (e.g., primates, cetaceans and elephants) that can acquire detailed knowledge over their long lifetimes. In our study, we compared the ability of elephants from two very different populations to assess the threat associated with different numbers of roaring lions. The population in Amboseli (Kenya) consists of stable family groups and experiences relatively low levels of human disturbance, while the population in Pilanesberg (South Africa) was founded in the early 1980’s from young and often unrelated orphan elephants. We broadcast lion roars to families of elephants in both these populations and recorded how they responded to differing levels of threat (one versus three lions). The Amboseli population successfully increased their defensive bunching behaviour to the greater threat associated with three lions, whereas the Pilanesberg elephants appeared unable to make the same distinction. Our findings indicate that profound disruption experienced early in life and the lack of older adults to learn from has impaired the ability of the Pilanesberg elephants to make accurate assessments of predatory threat. We suggest that, in addition to population size, conservation practitioners need to consider the crucial role of social structure and knowledge transmission in these highly social and long-lived species. ABSTRACT: The transmission of reliable information between individuals is crucial for group-living animals. This is particularly the case for cognitively advanced mammals with overlapping generations that acquire detailed social and ecological knowledge over long lifetimes. Here, we directly compare the ecological knowledge of elephants from two populations, with radically different developmental histories, to test whether profound social disruption affects their ability to assess predatory threat. Matriarchs (≤50 years of age) and their family groups received playbacks of three lions versus a single lion roaring. The family groups in the natural Amboseli population (Kenya) reliably assessed the greater predatory threat presented by three lions roaring versus one. However, in the socially disrupted Pilanesberg population (South Africa), no fine-scale distinctions were made between the numbers of roaring lions. Our results suggest that the removal of older and more experienced individuals in highly social species, such as elephants, is likely to impact the acquisition of ecological knowledge by younger group members, particularly through the lack of opportunity for social learning and cultural transmission of knowledge. This is likely to be exacerbated by the trauma experienced by juvenile elephants that witnessed the culling of family members and were translocated to new reserves. With increasing levels of anthropogenic disturbance, it is important that conservation practitioners consider the crucial role that population structure and knowledge transfer plays in the functioning and resilience of highly social and long-lived species

Contrasting selection pressure on body and weapon size in a polygynous megaherbivore

Sexual size dimorphism (SSD) is a common morphological trait in ungulates, with polygyny considered the leading driver of larger male body mass and weapon size. However, not all polygynous species exhibit SSD, while molecular evidence has revealed a more complex relationship between paternity and mating system than originally predicted. SSD is, therefore, likely to be shaped by a range of social, ecological and physiological factors. We present the first definitive analysis of SSD in the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) using a unique morphological dataset collected from 2994 aged individuals. The results confirm that hippos exhibit SSD, but the mean body mass differed by only 5% between the sexes, which is rather limited compared with many other polygynous ungulates. However, jaw and canine mass are significantly greater in males than females (44% and 81% heavier, respectively), highlighting the considerable selection pressure for acquiring larger weapons. A predominantly aquatic lifestyle coupled with the physiological limitations of their foregut fermenting morphology likely restricts body size differences between the sexes. Indeed, hippos appear to be a rare example among ungulates whereby sexual selection favours increased weapon size over body mass, underlining the important role that species-specific ecology and physiology have in shaping SSD

Seasonal range fidelity of a megaherbivore in response to environmental change

For large herbivores living in highly dynamic environments, maintaining range fidelity has the potential to facilitate the exploitation of predictable resources while minimising energy expenditure. We evaluate this expectation by examining how the seasonal range fidelity of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Kruger National Park, South Africa is affected by spatiotemporal variation in environmental conditions (vegetation quality, temperature, rainfall, and fire). Eight-years of GPS collar data were used to analyse the similarity in seasonal utilisation distributions for thirteen family groups. Elephants exhibited remarkable consistency in their seasonal range fidelity across the study with rainfall emerging as a key driver of space-use. Within years, high range fidelity from summer to autumn and from autumn to winter was driven by increased rainfall and the retention of high-quality vegetation. Across years, sequential autumn seasons demonstrated the lowest levels of range fidelity due to inter-annual variability in the wet to dry season transition, resulting in unpredictable resource availability. Understanding seasonal space use is important for determining the effects of future variability in environmental conditions on elephant populations, particularly when it comes to management interventions. Indeed, over the coming decades climate change is predicted to drive greater variability in rainfall and elevated temperatures in African savanna ecosystems. The impacts of climate change also present particular challenges for elephants living in fragmented or human-transformed habitats where the opportunity for seasonal range shifts are greatly constrained

Contrasting effects of climate change on seasonal survival of a hibernating mammal

Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead