Demand prediction model for regional railway services considering spatial effects between stations

[EN] The railways are a priority transport mode for the European Union given their safety record and environmental sustainability. Therefore it is important to have quantitative models available which allow passenger demand for rail travel to be simulated for planning purposes and to evaluate different policies. The aim of this article is to specify and estimate trip distribution models between railway stations by considering the most influential demand variables. Two types of models were estimated: Poisson regression and gravity. The input data were the ticket sales on a regional line in Cantabria (Spain) which were provided by the Spanish railway infrastructure administrator (ADIF – RAM). The models have also considered the possible existence of spatial effects between train stations. The results show that the models have a good fit to the available data, especial the gravity models constrained by origins and destinations. Furthermore, the gravity models which considered the existence of spatial effects between stations had a significantly better fit than the Poisson models and the gravity models that did not consider this phenomenon. The proposed models have therefore been shown to be good support tools for decision making in the field of railway planning.Cordera Piñera, R.; Sañudo, R.; Dell'olio, L.; Ibeas, Á. (2016). Demand prediction model for regional railway services considering spatial effects between stations. En XII Congreso de ingeniería del transporte. 7, 8 y 9 de Junio, Valencia (España). Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 1110-1122. https://doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2015.4053OCS1110112

The impact of accessibility by public transport on real estate values: A comparison between the cities of Rome and Santander

Empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that greater accessibility to opportunities can have a positive impact on real estate values. However, this capitalisation of the benefits of accessibility could vary between different study areas. This research estimates hedonic and spatial hedonic models in two urban areas to compare if differences can be found in the impact accessibility using public transport has on residential property values. The two study areas chosen for comparison are a medium sized city without any major mobility problems (Santander, Spain) and a very large city with major congestion problems (Rome, Italy). The estimated hedonic models have considered the possible presence of spatial effects, a common occurrence with real estate data which may generate dependency in the residuals of hedonic models. Accessibility has been measured using two types of indicators: relative and gravity based. The results confirm that accessibility was a positive factor on property prices in both cities, although in Santander this was only true using the relative indicator to the city centre. These results are relevant for supporting the introduction of value capture policies which provide finance for new projects to extend and encourage greater use of public transport.This research was made possible through the projects PARK-INFO (TRA2013-48116-R) and REALTIMEQUALITY (TRA2015-69903-R) financed by the Government of Spain

Trip distribution model for regional railway services considering spatial effects between stations

The railways are a priority transport mode for the European Union given their safety record and environmental sustainability. Therefore it is important to have quantitative models available which allow passenger demand for rail travel to be simulated for planning purposes and to evaluate different policies. The aim of this article is to specify and estimate trip distribution models between railway stations by considering the most influential demand variables. Two types of models were estimated: Poisson regression and gravity. The input data were the ticket sales and the prices between stations on a regional line in Cantabria (Spain) which were provided by the Spanish railway infrastructure administrator (ADIF – RAM). The models have also considered the possible existence of spatial effects between train stations. The results show that the models have a good fit to the available data, especially the gravity models constrained by origins and destinations. Furthermore, the gravity models which considered the existence of spatial effects between stations had a significantly better fit and provided a more realistic journey pattern in a future scenario than the Poisson models and the gravity models that did not consider these effects. The proposed models have therefore been shown to be good support tools for decision making in the field of railway planning.This research was made possible thanks to financing from the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, Shift2Rail Joint Undertaking 2015 call through the "NEAR2050: future challenges for the rail sector" project (Grant Number: 730838). The authors would also like to thank ADIF – RAM for having provided the data used

IMPACTOS DE LA ACCESIBILIDAD MEDIANTE TRANSPORTE PÚBLICO EN LOS VALORES INMOBILIARIOS: UNA COMPARACIÓN ENTRE LAS CIUDADES DE ROMA Y SANTANDER

[ES] Existe evidencia empírica que avala la hipótesis de que incrementos en la accesibilidad a oportunidades pueden impactar positivamente en los valores inmobiliarios. Sin embargo, esta capitalización de los beneficios de la accesibilidad puede ser desigual en distintas áreas de estudio. En esta investigación se estiman modelos hedónicos y modelos hedónicos espaciales en dos áreas urbanas para comparar si existen diferencias en los impactos de la accesibilidad utilizando transporte público. Las dos áreas de estudio seleccionadas han sido una ciudad media sin grandes problemas de movilidad (Santander, España) y una gran ciudad con elevados problemas de congestión (Roma, Italia). Los modelos hedónicos estimados han considerado la posible existencia de efectos espaciales, habitualmente presentes en los datos inmobiliarios, que pueden generar dependencia en los residuos de los modelos hedónicos. La accesibilidad se ha medido utilizando dos tipos de indicadores: de accesibilidad relativa y gravitatoria. Los resultados permiten afirmar que la accesibilidad fue un factor positivo en el precio de los valores inmobiliarios de ambas ciudades, si bien en el caso de Santander únicamente de forma relativa al centro urbano. Estos resultados son relevantes de cara a implementar políticas de captura del valor que permitan financiar nuevos proyectos de transporte público.Cordera Piñera, R.; Coppola, P.; Dell'olio, L.; Ibeas, A. (2016). IMPACTOS DE LA ACCESIBILIDAD MEDIANTE TRANSPORTE PÚBLICO EN LOS VALORES INMOBILIARIOS: UNA COMPARACIÓN ENTRE LAS CIUDADES DE ROMA Y SANTANDER. En XII Congreso de ingeniería del transporte. 7, 8 y 9 de Junio, Valencia (España). Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 2315-2332. https://doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2015.4065OCS2315233

The Effect of Introducing Parking Policies on Managing Mobility to Beaches in Touristic Coastal Towns

This article presents a behavioural analysis of tourists visiting a leisure area in the north of Spain to evaluate their reaction when faced with a series of tariffs and alternative transport modes to estimate potential income for reinvestment in sustainable mobility policies. The active involvement of the different groups affected by the changes has led to a series of policies able to generate income for financing a new urban transport service, park and ride installations and their associated vehicles. These changes resulted in a noteworthy improvement in the quality of life of the local residents and an improved, less intense tourist experience.This study and the development of future research are possible thanks to financing from the Spanish Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad from the projects referenced TRA2013-48116-R and TRA2017-85853-C2-1-R

Los retos de las ciudades y territorios ante las nuevas economías. La disrupción tecnológica y las nuevas formas de movilidad. Territorios hacia la era autónoma

En los últimos años se ha producido un gran avance en el desarrollo de los vehículos autónomos desde el mundo tecnológico y empresarial que está siendo, además, enormemente apoyado por los distintos gobiernos nacionales e instituciones internacionales. Este nuevo modo de transporte, cuya implantación se prevé en los próximos 20 años, está llamado a revolucionar no sólo la manera en la que viajamos sino la forma de entender la configuración de los territorios y las ciudades, como ya ocurriera previamente con cada nuevo modo de transporte (ferrocarril y coche). Sin embargo, a pesar de la clara apuesta legislativa y de promoción de los vehículos autónomos realizada por parte de las administraciones en el campo del transporte y la tecnología, no se ha visto hasta el momento ningún esfuerzo destinado a la adaptación de la normativa urbanística y de ordenación del territorio. Esta falta de adaptación a las potenciales consecuencias de la implantación del vehículo autónomo se ha debido en gran medida al desconocimiento e incertidumbre asociados al mismo. Este artículo trata de revisar los principales impactos positivos y negativos de los vehículos autónomos, con especial hincapié en aquellos con repercusión espacial, de modo que los expertos y decisores en materia de ordenación urbanística y territorial puedan empezar a tomar conciencia y planificar en consecuencia con suficiente antelación

The impact of undesirable externalities on residential property values: spatial regressive models and an empirical study

Pollutant emissions, noise and other externalities generated by heavy infrastructures, might impact negatively on real estate values. To test this effect, this paper presents the results of an analysis based on Hedonic Linear Regression, Spatial Hedonic Linear Regression and Hedonic Geographically Weighted Regression models, carried out for the study case of the province of Taranto (Italy). The biggest steel factory in Europe is located here, and some population movements have been observed in relation to the high levels of pollution in the areas close to the factory. The variables used to measure the impact of externalities are of two types: objective indicators such as the distance from the industrial area and the levels of NO2 and PM10, and subjective indicators such as the level of pollution and noise perceived by the population. Results show that the distance from factory was a positive factor in the real estate prices although not always clearly significant, and among pollution indicators, only high levels of NO2 had a negative effect. The accessibility to employment did not prove to be a significant variable in the real estate prices, which indicates that factors related to environmental quality have a greater weight in residential location. Moreover, models including subjective indicators do not show better estimates than models considering only objective indicators. Finally, spatial regression models were useful to analyse the spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity observed in the data.This study was supported by research funding form the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the projects TRA2012-37659 (co-financed with FEDER funds) and TRA2013-48116-R

Modeling the Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Land Use Using a LUTI Model

ABSTRACT: Autonomous vehicles (AVs) can generate major changes in urban systems due to their ability to use road infrastructures more efficiently and shorten trip times. However, there is great uncertainty about these effects and about whether the use of these vehicles will continue to be private, in continuity with the current paradigm, or whether they will become shared (carsharing/ridesharing). In order to try to shed light on these matters, the use of a scenario-based methodology and the evaluation of the scenarios using a land use?transport interaction model (LUTI model TRANSPACE) is proposed. This model allows simulating the impacts that changes in the transport system can generate on the location of households and companies oriented to local demand and accessibility conditions. The obtained results allow us to state that, if AVs would generate a significant increase in the capacity of urban and interurban road infrastructures, the impacts on mobility and on the location of activities could be positive, with a decrease in the distances traveled, trip times, and no evidence of significant urban sprawl processes. However, if these increases in capacity are accompanied by a large augment in the demand for shared journeys by new users (young, elderly) or empty journeys, the positive effects could disappear. Thus, this scenario would imply an increase in trip times, reduced accessibilities, and longer average distances traveled, all of which could cause the unwanted effect of expelling activities from the consolidated urban centerThis work is based on two research projects—“InnovAtive Urban and Transport planning tOols for the implemeNtation of new mObility systeMs based On aUtonomouS driving” – AUTONOMOUS, 2020–2023, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation/ERDF (EU)-State Programme for Knowledge Generation and Scientific and Technological Strengthening of the R&D&i System (PID2019-110355RB-I00); and “Autonomous share mobility for tomorrow’s liveable cities” – MOVI-CITY, 2019–2020, resulting from a Call of the University of Cantabria and funded by the Department of Universities and Research, Environment, and Social Policy of the Government of Cantabria (Spain)

The challenge of introducing indicators in the evaluation and monitoring systems of Spanish Regional Plans

El progresivo proceso de europeización de la planificación territorial ha promovido la aparición de nuevos objetivos y mecanismos de control de los planes de ordenación, como son el desarrollo sostenible y los sistemas de evaluación y seguimiento. Sin embargo, en España, a diferencia de otros países que cuentan con directrices o guías nacionales, esta inclusión no se ha realizado de manera sistemática. Este artículo tiene como objetivo comprobar hasta qué punto y cómo se está integrando la evaluación y seguimiento de los planes territoriales españoles prestando especial atención al uso de sistemas de indicadores. La revisión de los planes actuales permite afirmar que España está todavía dando sus primeros pasos, dado que, de las 17 comunidades autónomas, diez contemplan sistemas de evaluación y seguimiento específicos, mediante la elaboración de planes o informes, y solo cinco los han desarrollado e implementado incluyendo el uso de sistemas de indicadores. Además, las metodologías empleadas difieren significativamente en cuanto a qué debe medirse, es decir, en cómo se conceptualiza la sostenibilidad, y al número y tipo de indicadores seleccionados. De cara al futuro se recomienda tender a una mayor convergencia en la definición de las metodologías de evaluación y seguimiento que contemplen el uso de indicadores e índices sintéticos, con el fin de facilitar su comparación entre distintos ámbitos territoriales, potenciar sinergias y optimizar el uso de recursos.The gradual process of Europeanisation of spatial planning has promoted the inclusion of new sustainable development goals and evaluation and monitoring systems within regional plans. However, in Spain, unlike other countries with national guidelines, this inclusion has not been done systematically. This paper aims to verify to what extent and how these evaluation and monitoring systems are being integrated within Spanish regional plans paying special attention to the use of indicators. The review of these current plans allows us to state that Spain is still in its initial stages, since ten of its seventeen Autonomous Communities have developed specific evaluation and monitoring programs, including the elaboration of plans and reports, of which only five have actually developed and implemented the use of indicators. In addition, the approaches used differ significantly between each other, both in the conceptualization of what should be measured, i.e. how sustainability is defined, and in the number and type of the selected assessment indicators. In the future, a higher convergence in the definition of evaluation standards and guidelines that include the use of indicators and synthetic indexes is advised, in order to ease comparison between different planning areas, enhance synergies and optimize resources

Microsimulation parking choice and search model to assess dynamic pricing scenarios

This article analyses the impact that different parking management policies may have on public roads. Policies were simulated using a new parking model based on two sub models: choice of parking place and search for parking place. The model considers curb traffic and was implemented into a traditional microsimulation traffic software. The parameters for the sub models were estimated from data collected in the city centre of Santander (Spain) and from a stated preferences survey asked to users of parking spaces. The model for testing policies was run on Aimsun simulation software creating a personalised API programmed using Python 3.7. The proposed model was able to dynamically simulate various policies based on charging for on-street parking spaces with fare updates at short time intervals of between 5 and 15 min. A sensitivity analysis was performed on different fare scenarios and considering different levels of information available to the users. As a result, this work demonstrates some benefits of dynamic fares such as reducing searching time, curb induced traffic and emissions as well as a new modal redistribution of parking choice between off-street and on-street supply. On the contrary, dynamic fares implied that users needed to spend a bit more time from their parking location to their destinations.This study and the development of future research are possible thanks to financing from the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación from the project referenced and TRA2017-85853-C2-1-R