Some Regional Economic Perspectives on Covid-19 Impacts

It has been about eight months since the Covid-19 pandemic began sweeping across America, causing the well-known health care emergency, and major economic and fiscal distortions. Presumably, we are in the last stages of the damage, as activity has picked up in most realms of daily life. However, recovery problems linger in many areas, including air travel, cruises, hotels, conventions, concerts, and schools. While not over, enough information has emerged to start documenting the regional economic impacts around Kentucky. This note examines the latest public data to study the apparent economic and fiscal damage related to Covid responses, public and private, in the state. This includes the sharp reductions in employment and payrolls due to business interruptions, but also the mitigating (and contributing) impacts of the federal relief packages

Tax Limits, Houses, and Schools: Seemingly Unrelated and Offsetting Effects

Property tax limitations, as well as other tax and expenditure restrictions on state and local governments in the United States, date back to the late nineteenth century. A surge in property tax limitation legislation occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and its effects on government revenue, school financing, and educational quality have been studied extensively. However, there is surprisingly little literature on how property tax limits affect housing markets. For the first time, we examine the impacts of property tax limitations on housing growth, in addition to their impacts on housing prices. Using state-level data over twenty-three years, we find that property tax limits increase housing prices (indexes) by approximately 1.6%. These limits appear to have little impact on the growth in the housing stock, as measured by the number of permits. Our evidence suggests that this is because while property tax limits reduce property taxes they also increase the price of housing. These two counteracting effects lead to ambiguous impacts on the gross price of housing.

Partial river flow recovery with forest age is rare in the decades following establishment.

Forest regeneration and expansion are occurring in many countries, with 80 million ha established from 2000 to 2012 under the Bonn accord and 17.5 million ha established from 1990 to 2005 according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation. Multiple reviews have linked increasing forest cover with reduced river flow and potentially detrimental effects downstream. Previous reviews have investigated trends in river flow response over time, but the influence of forest age remains uncertain. Partial river flow recovery (towards non-forested conditions) has been reported in decades following forest establishment, but the role of climate in driving these trends has not been explored. Here, we evaluate river flow trends in 43 studies following forest establishment, which provide sufficient information to distinguish the effects of ageing forests from variable climate. Our meta-analysis supports previous findings showing that forestation reduces annual river flow (by 23% after 5 years and 38% after 25 years) with greater reductions in catchments with higher mean annual precipitation, larger increases in forest cover, and which were idle, rather than agricultural land, prior to forestation. The impact of forests on river flow is sensitive to annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, but responses are highly variable. Forests affect river flow less when annual precipitation is low, and sensitivity to precipitation decreases as catchment aridity increases. The majority of catchments demonstrated persistent river flow declines after forest establishment. However, nine catchments showed partial flow recovery after an initial decrease, with peak flow reductions at an average age of 15 and across a range of tree species. The mean rate of recovery was 34 mm/year over 5 years. Partial flow recovery with forest age cannot be commonly expected, however, and forestation programmes should take into account that changes to annual river flow are likely to persist for up to five decades.This work was funded by a grant from IUCN (International Union for the Conservation of Nature) through the KNOWFOR project (grant number: GB-1-203034

Mapping tree carbon with airborne remote sensing

Forests are a major component of the global carbon cycle, and accurate estimation of forest carbon stocks and fluxes is important in the context of anthropogenic global change. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) data sets are increasingly recognized as outstanding data sources for high-fidelity mapping of carbon stocks at regional scales.We develop a tree-centric approach to carbon mapping, based on identifying individual tree crowns (ITCs) and species from airborne remote sensing data, from which individual tree carbon stocks are calculated. We identify ITCs from the laser scanning point cloud using a region-growing algorithm and identifying species from airborne hyperspectral data by machine learning. For each detected tree, we predict stem diameter from its height and crown-width estimate. From that point on, we use well-established approaches developed for field-based inventories: above-ground biomasses of trees are estimated using published allometries and summed within plots to estimate carbon density.We show this approach is highly reliable: tests in the Italian Alps demonstrated a close relationship between field- and ALS-based estimates of carbon stocks (r2 = 0·98). Small trees are invisible from the air, and a correction factor is required to accommodate this effect.An advantage of the tree-centric approach over existing area-based methods is that it can produce maps at any scale and is fundamentally based on field-based inventory methods, making it intuitive and transparent. Airborne laser scanning, hyperspectral sensing and computational power are all advancing rapidly, making it increasingly feasible to use ITC approaches for effective mapping of forest carbon density also inside wider carbon mapping programs like REDD++.We thank Dr L. Frizzera for help with field-data collection. ALS data acquisition was supported by the European Commission (Alpine Space 2-3-2-FR NEWFOR). MD was supported by Trees4Future (European Union FP7 284181) and a NERC grant NE/K016377/1. DAC was also supported by a grant from BBSRC and DEFRA to study ash dieback.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.1257

Tropical nature reserves are losing their buffer zones, but leakage is not to blame.

Tropical forests provide important ecosystem services to humanity, yet are threatened by habitat loss resulting from deforestation and land-use change. Although reserves are considered the cornerstones of conservation efforts in the tropics, their efficacy remains equivocal. One question that remains unresolved is whether leakage - the unanticipated displacement of deforestation from inside reserves into the unrestricted zones just beyond a reserve's administrative boundary - is common around tropical forest reserves, or whether the zones are acting as buffers between the protected area and the outside world. To resolve this question, we used the Landsat-derived Global Forest Change dataset to estimate deforestation rates between 2000 and 2012 inside and outside of 60 nature reserves spread across the tropics. Deforestation rates inside reserves (within 5km of the administrative boundary) were generally lower than those immediately outside the reserves (i.e. in buffer zones 0-10km from the boundary), suggesting that reserves are effective at protecting forests. We hypothesised that leakage would result in greater deforestation rates in reserve buffer zones than in the broader reserve landscapes, but such a pattern was observed in only five African sites, suggesting that leakage does not often occur on the edge of established reserves. However, roughly 80% of reserves experienced deforestation rates that increased gradually from their interiors to the outer periphery of their buffer zones. Thus, while leakage may not be a pervasive phenomenon around tropical reserves worldwide, tropical reserves are often losing their buffer zones, resulting in increased isolation that could have ramifications for ecosystem services provisioning and tropical conservation strategies.We thank the Keasbey Memorial Foundation for their support of G.V.L.’s program of study at Cambridge. We thank Bill Laurance and Mark Mulligan for helpful discussions about the work. We also thank Marion Pfeifer, Xiuzhi Chen, Jung-Tai Chao, Mark Balman, Antonio Trabucco, Megan MacDowell, Beatriz Beisiegel, Joseph Wright, and Patrick Jansen (see Table A.1) for generously providing the shapefiles of various reserve boundaries required for this study.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2015.11.00

Measuring the Spread of COVID-19 in Kentucky: Do We Have the Right Data?

We examine various measures of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths, with an emphasis on data for Kentucky. We find that: Data on the number of new reported cases of the disease obtained from convenience samples (as opposed to representative random samples) is an inaccurate measure of the spread of the disease in the State. Using CDC data and national studies, it appears that there were ten times the number of infections in March than reported for Kentucky at the time and by September the State is still capturing only one out of two people infected. A better measure of new cases can be obtained from model-based estimates of new daily cases that adjusts for the number of people being tested, the demographic characteristics of who is being tested, hospitalization rates, death rates, data on mobility, as well as the known biases in the reported data

Evidence for individual discrimination and numerical assessment in collective antipredator behaviour in wild jackdaws (Corvus monedula)

This is the final version. Available on open access from the Royal Society via the DOI in this recordData accessibility: Data available from the Dryad Digital Repository: https://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.006bn4kCollective responses to threats occur throughout the animal kingdom but little is known about the cognitive processes underpinning them. Antipredator mobbing is one such response. Approaching a predator may be highly risky, but the individual risk declines and the likelihood of repelling the predator increases in larger mobbing groups. The ability to appraise the number of conspecifics involved in a mobbing event could therefore facilitate strategic decisions about whether to join. Mobs are commonly initiated by recruitment calls, which may provide valuable information to guide decision-making. We tested whether the number of wild jackdaws responding to recruitment calls was influenced by the number of callers. As predicted, playbacks simulating three or five callers tended to recruit more individuals than playbacks of one caller. Recruitment also substantially increased if recruits themselves produced calls. These results suggest that jackdaws use individual vocal discrimination to assess the number of conspecifics involved in initiating mobbing events, and use this information to guide their responses. Our results show support for the use of numerical assessment in antipredator mobbing responses and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the cognitive processes involved in collective behaviour.Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)Human Frontier Science ProgramUniversity of Exete

Estimating the Social Value of Higher Education: Willingness to Pay for Community and Technical Colleges

Much is known about private returns to education in the form of higher earnings. Less is known about social value, over and above the private, market value. Associations between education and socially-desirable outcomes are strong, but disentangling the effect of education from other causal factors is challenging. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the social value of one form of higher education. We elicit willingness to pay for the Kentucky Community and Technical College System directly through a stated-preferences survey and compare our estimate of total social value to our estimates of private value in the form of increased earnings. Our earnings estimates are based on two distinct data sets, one administrative and one from the U.S. Census. The difference between the total social value and the increase in earnings is our measure of the education externality. Our work differs from previous research by eliciting values directly in a way that yields a total value including any external benefits and by focusing on education at the community college level. Our preferred estimate indicates the social value of expanding the system substantially exceeds private value by approximately 50 percent.social returns, education externalities, contingent valuation, earnings

Getting the biggest birch for the bang: restoring and expanding upland birchwoods in the Scottish Highlands by managing red deer

High deer populations threaten the conservation value of woodlands and grasslands, but predicting the success of deer culling, in terms of allowing vegetation to recover, is difficult. Numerical simulation modeling is one approach to gain insight into the outcomes of management scenarios. We develop a spatially explicit model to predict the responses of Betula spp. to red deer (Cervus elaphus) and land management in the Scottish Highlands. Our model integrates a Bayesian stochastic stage-based matrix model within the framework of a widely used individual-based forest simulation model, using data collected along spatial and temporal gradients in deer browsing. By initializing our model with the historical spatial locations of trees, we find that densities of juvenile trees (3 m) height tiers over 30 years, but regeneration also requires suitable ground cover for seedling establishment. Densities of adult seed sources did not influence regeneration, nor did an active management scenario where we altered the spatial configuration of adults by creating “woodland islets”. Our results show that managers interested in maximizing tree regeneration cannot simply reduce deer densities but must also improve ground cover for seedling establishment, and the model we develop now enables managers to quantify explicitly how much both these factors need to be altered. More broadly, our findings emphasize the need for land managers to consider the impacts of large herbivores rather than their densities

GaAs solar cells for laser power beaming

Efforts to develop GaAs solar cells for coupling to laser beams in the wavelength range of 800 to 840 nm are described. This work was motivated primarily by interests in space-tp-space power beaming applications. In particular, the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories is conducting studies of the utilization of power beaming for several future space missions. Modeling calculations of GaAs cell performance were carried out using PC-1D to determine an appropriate design for a p/n cell structure. Epitaxial wafers were grown by MOCVD and cells fabricated at WSU Tri-Cities. Under simulated conditions, an efficiency of 53 percent was achieved for a cell coupled to 806 nm light at 400 mW/sq cm