A Berger type normal holonomy theorem for complex submanifolds

We prove a kind of Berger-Simons' Theorem for the normal holonomy group of a complex submanifold of the projective spac

Renewal models of seismic recurrence applied to paleoseismological data

Because paleoseismology can extend the record of earthquakes back in time up to several millennia, it represents a great opportunity to study how earthquakes recur through time and thus provide innovative contributions to seismic hazard assessment. A worldwide compilation of a database of recurrence from paleoseismology was developed in the frame of the ILP project “Earthquake Recurrence Through Time”, from which we were able to extract five sequences with 6 and up to 9 dated events on a single fault. By using the age of the paleoearthquakes with their associated uncertainty we have tested the null hypothesis that the observed inter-event times come from a uniform random distribution (Poisson model). We have made use of the concept of likelihood for a specific sequence of observed events under a given occurrence model. The difference dlnL of the likelihoods estimated under two hypotheses gives an indication of which between the two hypotheses fits better the observations. To take into account the uncertainties associated to paleoseismological data, we used a Monte Carlo procedure, computing the average and the standard deviation of dlnL for 1000 inter-event sets randomly obtained by choosing the occurrence time of each event within the limits of uncertainty provided by the observations. Still applying a Monte Carlo procedure, we have estimated the probability that a value equal to or larger than each of the observed dlnLs comes by chance from a Poisson distribution of inter-event times. These tests have been carried out for a set of the most popular statistical models applied in seismic hazard assessment, i.e. the Log-normal, Gamma, Weibull and Brownian Passage Time (BPT) distributions. In the particular case of the BPT distribution, we have also shown that the limited number of dated events creates a trend to reducing both the observed mean recurrence time and the coefficient of variation for the studied sequence which can possibly bias the results. Our results show that a renewal model, associated with a time dependent hazard, and some kind of predictability of the next large earthquake on a fault, only for the Fucino site, out of the five sites examined in this study, is significantly better than a plain time independent Poisson model. The lack of regularity in the earthquake occurrence for three of the examined faults can be explained either by the large uncertainties in the estimate of paleoseismological occurrence times or by physical interaction between neighbouring faults

Probabilistic approach to earthquake prediction.

The evaluation of any earthquake forecast hypothesis requires the application of rigorous statistical methods. It implies a univocal definition of the model characterising the concerned anomaly or precursor, so as it can be objectively recognised in any circumstance and by any observer.A valid forecast hypothesis is expected to maximise successes and minimise false alarms. The probability gain associated to a precursor is also a popular way to estimate the quality of the predictions based on such precursor. Some scientists make use of a statistical approach based on the computation of the likelihood of an observed realisation of seismic events, and on the comparison of the likelihood obtained under different hypotheses. This method can be extended to algorithms that allow the computation of the density distribution of the conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in space, time and magnitude. Whatever method is chosen for building up a new hypothesis, the final assessment of its validity should be carried out by a test on a new and independent set of observations. The implementation of this test could, however, be problematic for seismicity characterised by long-term recurrence intervals. Even using the historical record, that may span time windows extremely variable between a few centuries to a few millennia, we have a low probability to catch more than one or two events on the same fault. Extending the record of earthquakes of the past back in time up to several millennia, paleoseismology represents a great opportunity to study how earthquakes recur through time and thus provide innovative contributions to time-dependent seismic hazard assessment. Sets of paleoseimologically dated earthquakes have been established for some faults in the Mediterranean area: the Irpinia fault in Southern Italy, the Fucino fault in Central Italy, the El Asnam fault in Algeria and the Skinos fault in Central Greece. By using the age of the paleoearthquakes with their associated uncertainty we have computed, through a Montecarlo procedure, the probability that the observed inter-event times come from a uniform random distribution (null hypothesis). This probability is estimated approximately equal to 8.4% for the Irpinia fault, 0.5% for the Fucino fault, 49% for the El Asnam fault and 42% for the Skinos fault. So, the null Poisson hypothesis can be rejected with a confidence level of 99.5% for the Fucino fault, but it can be rejected only with a confidence level between 90% and 95% for the Irpinia fault, while it cannot be rejected for the other two cases. As discussed in the last section of this paper, whatever the scientific value of any prediction hypothesis, it should be considered effective only after evaluation of the balance between the costs and benefits introduced by its practical implementation

Daily earthquake forecasts during the May-June 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence (northern Italy)

The paper has no abstrac

Assessing Vegetation Decline Due to Pollution from Solid Waste Management by a Multitemporal Remote Sensing Approach

Nowadays, the huge production of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) is one of the most strongly felt environmental issues. Consequently, the European Union (EU) delivers laws and regulations for better waste management, identifying the essential requirements for waste disposal operations and the characteristics that make waste hazardous to human health and the envi-ronment. In Italy, environmental regulations define, among other things, the characteristics of sites to be classified as “potentially contaminated”. From this perspective, the Basilicata region is cur-rently one of the Italian regions with the highest number of potentially polluted sites in proportion to the number of inhabitants. This research aimed to identify the possible effects of potentially toxic element (PTE) pollution due to waste disposal activities in three “potentially contaminated” sites in southern Italy. The area was affected by a release of inorganic pollutants with values over the thresholds ruled by national/European legislation. Potential physiological efficiency variations of vegetation were analyzed through the multitemporal processing of satellite images. Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) images were used to calcu-late the trend in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over the years. The mul-titemporal trends were analyzed using the median of the non-parametric Theil–Sen estimator. Fi-nally, the Mann–Kendall test was applied to evaluate trend significance featuring areas according to the contamination effects on investigated vegetation. The applied procedure led to the exclu-sion of significant effects on vegetation due to PTEs. Thus, waste disposal activities during previ-ous years do not seem to have significantly affected vegetation around targeted sites

Study of recent seismicity in the area of Southern Apennines

In questo lavoro è stata effettuata una dettagliata analisi della sismicità dell’Italia meridionale in particolare della zona comprendente l’Appennino lucano e l’avanfossa bradanica. Sono stati utilizzati i tempi d’arrivo delle fasi P e S di terremoti locali registrati dalla Rete Sismica Nazionale (RSNC), dalla rete temporanea SAPTEX (2001-2004) (Cimini et al., 2006), e dalla rete locale dell’Eni-Agip operante nella Val d’Agri, registrate nel periodo 2001-2006. In questo modo è stato creato un database costituito da 7570 fasi P e 4956 fasi S, associate a 514 eventi con magnitudo maggiore di 2.0. Lo studio realizzato consiste nel: 1) Calcolo del rapporto VP/VS utilizzando il metodo di Wadati modificato (Chatelain, 1978), ottenendo un valore di 1.83 (Fig.1) leggermente superiore a quello ottenuto da studi precedenti; 2) Analisi del profilo di velocità 1D che meglio approssima la struttura crostale dell’area studiata (Fig.2) utilizzando il codice VELEST (Kissling et al., 1995) e tre modelli iniziali ottenuti da studi precedenti (Chiarabba and Frepoli, 1997; Cassinis et al., 2003; Chiarabba at al., 2005; Frepoli et al., 2005). 3) Localizzazione ipocentrale, calcolo dei meccanismi focali e campo di stress. Le localizzazioni ipocentrali calcolate sono prevalentemente di qualità A(243) e B(59), così come definite dal programma HYPOELLIPSE (Lahr, 1989). Rispetto a quelle ottenute utilizzando i dati della sola rete RSNC, esse risultano avere profondità ipocentrali piú vincolate ed errori di localizzazione inferiori. Considerando la distribuzione della sismicità in Fig.3 si possono distinguere tre zone principali: una situata nella parte ovest della catena appenninica, caratterizzata soprattutto da eventi piú superficiali; una situata in corrispondenza dell’avanfossa bradanica caratterizzata da una sismicità sparsa e da eventi piú profondi; ed infine un gruppo di eventi sparsi localizzati nell’area della Sila, separati da quelli esistenti nella zona del monte Pollino da un evidente gap sismico. Seguendo la procedura di calcolo dei meccanismi focali, col metodo delle polarità dei primi arrivi, ne sono stati selezionati 69 in base ai due fattori di qualità definiti dal codice FPFIT (Reasenberg and Oppenheimer, 1985). Le soluzioni ottenute sono in gran parte normali e trascorrenti con gli assi T che descrivono una generalizzata estensione dell’Appennino lucano in direzione NE-SW. Per la determinazione del campo di stress regionale è stata utilizzata la tecnica di inversione elaborata da Gephart & Forsyth (1984). I risultati ottenuti sono coerenti con i precedenti studi nella stessa area

Correlation of Static Stress Changes and Earthquake Occurrence in

A systematic analysis is made of static Coulomb stress changes and earthquake occurrence in the area of the North Aegean Sea, Greece, in order to assess the prospect of using static stress changes to construct a regional earthquake likelihood model. The earthquake data set comprises all events of magnitude M ≥ 5.2 which have occurred since 1964. This is compared to the evolving stress field due to constant tectonic loading and perturbations due to coseismic slip associated with major earthquakes (M ≥ 6.4) over the same period. The stress was resolved for sixteen fault orientation classes, covering the observed focal mechanisms of all earthquakes in the region. Analysis using error diagrams shows that earthquake occurrence is better correlated with the constant tectonic loading component of the stress field than with the total stress field changes since 1964, and that little, if any, information on earthquake occurrence is lost if only the maximum of the tectonic loading over the fault orientation classes is considered. Moreover, the information on earthquake occurrence is actually increased by taking the maximum of the evolving stress field since 1964, and of its coseismic–slip component, over the fault orientation classes. The maximum, over fault orientation classes, of linear combinations of the tectonic loading and the evolving stress field is insignificantly better correlated with earthquake occurrence than the maximum of the tectonic loading by itself. A composite stress–change variable is constructed from ordering of the maximum tectonic loading component and the maximum coseismic–slip component, in order to optimize the correlation with earthquake occurrence. The results indicate that it would be difficult to construct a time–varying earthquake likelihood model from the evolving stress field that is more informative than a time–invariant model based on the constant tectonic loading

The alien vascular flora of Linosa (Pelagie Islands, Strait of Sicily): update and management proposals

This paper provides an up-to-date overview of the naturalized alien plants of Linosa (Pelagie Archipelago, Sicily), which includes 83 taxa and accounts for 29 % of the total island's flora. Among these plants, 6 are invasive, 49 are naturalized and 28 are casual. With respect to previous available data, our field investigations resulted in the addition of 31 new xenophytes (21 casual and 10 fully naturalized). One of these species is new to the whole European territory (Kleinia anteuphorbia), 6 of them are new to Sicily and 11 are recorded for the first time on circum-Sicilian islets. For each alien plant, we indicate the habitat where the naturalization has been observed by using the codes proposed by Natura 2000 and Corine Biotopes habitat classification. We also provide a list of 159 alien plants that are cultivated in Linosa, but currently not naturalized, in order to underline the key role played by horticulture and gardening in the introduction of exotic species. In order to address this phenomenon and its huge impact on the integrity of both the natural and the traditional rural landscape, several actions are proposed that aim at preventing, controlling and monitoring both the ongoing and the potential invasion processes