Use of rainfall and sea surface temperature monitoring for malaria early warning in Botswana

Improved prediction, prevention, and control of epidemics is a key technical element of the Roll Back Malaria partnership. We report a methodology for assessing the importance of climate as a driver of inter-annual variability in malaria in Botswana, and provide the evidence base for inclusion of climate information in a national malaria early warning system. The relationships of variability in rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to malaria incidence are assessed at the national level after removing the impact of non-climatic trends and a major policy intervention. Variability in rainfall totals for the period December–February accounts for more than two-thirds of the inter-annual variability in standardized malaria incidence in Botswana (January–May). Both rainfall and annual malaria anomalies in December–February are significantly related to SSTs in the eastern Pacific, suggesting they may be predictable months in advance using seasonal climate forecasting methodologies

Initial Survey of Engineering Technology Capstone Courses and TeamworkBuilding Using CATME

This paper represents a first step in what is to become a multi –institutional initiative focused on identifying best practices for developing and improving teamwork skills within the Capstone experiences of engineering, technology and computing programs. Teamwork in this paper is defined and measured as the dimensions measured by the CATME Peer Review [1], which is currently used by thousands of technology and engineering instructors and institutions worldwide. The CATME Peer Review measurement tool is used to collect self and peer evaluations of team members’ contributions on five different teamwork dimensions [2]. These teamwork dimensions are 1) pose the knowledge, skills, and abilities to help the team; 2) expect quality work from the team; 3) keep the team on schedule; 4) positive interactions between teammates to help the team; and 5) all team members contribute to the team\u27s work and success. Pung and Farris[3] used CATME in a one semester junior level design class and reported a “significant improvement” in student behavior when compared to the old system of peer review. A workshop was developed to assemble all the participants, and develop a systematic method of evaluating teamwork building using CATME. All the participating schools and faculty will be testing changes in their Capstone courses and sharing the results of this analysis, in teamwork skills, with their colleagues

Holocene sea level and climate interactions on wet dune slack evolution in SW Portugal: a model for future scenarios?

We examine the Holocene environmental changes in a wet dune slack of the Portuguese coast, Poco do Barbarroxa de Baixo. Lithology, organic matter, biological proxies and high-resolution chronology provide estimations of sediment accumulation rates and changes in environmental conditions in relation to sea-level change and climate variability during the Holocene. Results show that the wet dune slack was formed 7.5 cal. ka BP, contemporaneous with the last stages of the rapid sea-level rise. This depositional environment formed under frequent freshwater flooding and water ponding that allowed the development and post-mortem accumulation of abundant plant remains. The wetland evolved into mostly palustrine conditions over the next 2000 years, until a phase of stabilization in relative sea-level rise, when sedimentation rates slowed down to 0.04 mm yr(-1), between 5.3 and 2.5 cal. ka BP. Later, about 0.8 cal. ka BP, high-energy events, likely due to enhanced storminess and more frequent onshore winds, caused the collapse of the foredune above the wetlands' seaward margin. The delicate balance between hydrology (controlled by sea-level rise and climate change), sediment supply and storminess modulates the habitat's resilience and ecological stability. This underpins the relevance of integrating past records in coastal wet dune slacks management in a scenario of constant adaptation processes.Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade de Lisboa [FCT UID/GEO/50019/2013

Male aggression varies with consortship rate and habitat in a dolphin social network

Coalitions and alliances exemplify the core elements of conflict and cooperation in animal societies. Ecological influences on alliance formation are more readily attributed to within-species variation where phylogenetic signals are muted. Remarkably, male Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins in Shark Bay, Western Australia, exhibit systematic spatial variation in alliance behavior, not simply within a species or population, but within a single social network. Moving SE-NW along Peron Peninsula in Shark Bay, males ally more often in trios than pairs, consort females more often, and exhibit greater seasonal movements. Ecological models predict more male-male conflict in the north, but sufficient observations of aggression are lacking. However, dolphins often incur marks, in the form of tooth rakes, during conflicts. Here we report that the incidence of new tooth rake marks varies systematically in the predicted pattern, with greater marking in the north, where males form more trios and consort females at a higher rate. While our previous work demonstrated that alliance complexity has an ecological component, we can now infer that ecological variation impacts the level of alliance-related conflict in Shark Bay

Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles

The control of epidemic malaria is a priority for the international health community and specific targets for the early detection and effective control of epidemics have been agreed. Interannual climate variability is an important determinant of epidemics in parts of Africa where climate drives both mosquito vector dynamics and parasite development rates. Hence, skilful seasonal climate forecasts may provide early warning of changes of risk in epidemic-prone regions. Here we discuss the development of a system to forecast probabilities of anomalously high and low malaria incidence with dynamically based, seasonal-timescale, multi-model ensemble predictions of climate, using leading global coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models developed in Europe. This forecast system is successfully applied to the prediction of malaria risk in Botswana, where links between malaria and climate variability are well established, adding up to four months lead time over malaria warnings issued with observed precipitation and having a comparably high level of probabilistic prediction skill. In years in which the forecast probability distribution is different from that of climatology, malaria decision-makers can use this information for improved resource allocation

Clinical Features, Survival and Prognostic Factors of Glycogen-Rich Clear Cell Carcinoma (GRCC) of the Breast in the U.S. Population

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines glycogen-rich clear cell carcinoma (GRCC) of the breast as a carcinoma with glycogen accumulation in more than 90% of its tumor cells. Due to the rarity of this disease, its reported survival and clinical associations have been inconsistent due to reliance on case reports and limited case series. As a result, the prognostic implication of this cancer subtype remains unclear. Using the U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database, we compared the incidence, demographics and prognostic factors of 155 cases of GRCC of the breast to 1,251,584 cases of other (non-GRCC) breast carcinomas. We demonstrate that GRCC is more likely to be identified as high grade, advanced stage, and more likely to have triple negative receptor status. GRCC cases display a poorer prognosis than non-GRCC carcinomas of the breast irrespective of age, AJCC staging, tumor grade, joint hormone receptor/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status, and treatment. Similar to non-GRCC carcinomas, older age and higher American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)/TNM staging were associated with poorer prognosis for GRCC, while treatment with surgery and radiation were associated with improved survival. Radiation, specifically in the setting of breast-conserving surgery, further improved survival compared to surgery alone. Our study highlights the poorer prognosis associated with glycogen accumulation in breast cancers and hence stresses the importance of identifying this more aggressive tumor type

Absorbing boundary conditions for the Westervelt equation

The focus of this work is on the construction of a family of nonlinear absorbing boundary conditions for the Westervelt equation in one and two space dimensions. The principal ingredient used in the design of such conditions is pseudo-differential calculus. This approach enables to develop high order boundary conditions in a consistent way which are typically more accurate than their low order analogs. Under the hypothesis of small initial data, we establish local well-posedness for the Westervelt equation with the absorbing boundary conditions. The performed numerical experiments illustrate the efficiency of the proposed boundary conditions for different regimes of wave propagation

Release from sheep-grazing appears to put some heart back into upland vegetation:A comparison of nutritional properties of plant species in long-term grazing experiments

Rewilding or wilding is a popularised means for enhancing the conservation value of marginal land. In the British uplands, it will involve a reduction, or complete removal, of livestock grazing (sheep), based on the belief that grazing has reduced plant species diversity, the ‘Wet Desert’ hypothesis. The hope is that if livestock is removed, diversity will recover. If true, we hypothesise that the species extirpated/reduced by grazing and then recover on its removal would more nutritious compared to those that persisted. We test this hypothesis at Moor House National Nature Reserve (North‐Pennines), where seven sets of paired plots were established between 1953 and 1967 to compare ungrazed/sheep‐grazed vegetation. Within these plot‐pairs, we compared leaf properties of seven focal species that occurred only, or were present in much greater abundance, in the absence of grazing to those of 10 common species that were common in both grazed and ungrazed vegetation. Each sample was analysed for macro‐nutrients, micro‐nutrients, digestibility, palatability and decomposability. We ranked the species with respect to 22 variables based on effect size derived from Generalised Linear Modelling (GLM) and compared species using a Principal Components Analysis. We also assessed changes in abundance of the focal species through time using GLMs. Our results support the ‘Wet Desert’ hypothesis, that is, that long‐term sheep grazing has selectively removed/reduced species like our focal ones and on recovery, they were more nutritious (macro‐nutrients, some micro‐nutrients) palatable, digestible and decomposable than common species. Measured changes in abundance of the focal species suggest that their recovery will take 10–20 years in blanket bog and 60 years in high‐altitude grasslands. Collectively, these results suggest that sheep grazing has brought about biotic homogenization, and its removal in (re)wilding schemes will reverse this process eventually! The ‘white woolly maggots’ have eaten at least part of the heart out of the highlands/uplands, and it will take some time for recovery

The Impact of Infectious Disease-Related Public Health Emergencies on Suicide, Suicidal Behavior, and Suicidal Thoughts:A Systematic Review

Background: Infectious disease-related public health emergencies (epidemics) may increase suicide risk, and high-quality evidence is needed to guide an international response. Aims: We investigated the potential impacts of epidemics on suicide-related outcomes. Method: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycInfo, CINAHL, Scopus, Web of Science, PsyArXiv, medRxiv, and bioRxiv from inception to May 13–16, 2020. Inclusion criteria: primary studies, reviews, and meta-analyses; reporting the impact of epidemics; with a primary outcome of suicide, suicidal behavior, suicidal ideation, and/or self-harm. Exclusion criteria: not concerned with suicide-related outcomes; not suitable for data extraction. PROSPERO registration: #CRD42020187013. Results: Eight primary papers were included, examining the effects of five epidemics on suicide-related outcomes. There was evidence of increased suicide rates among older adults during SARS and in the year following the epidemic (possibly motivated by social disconnectedness, fears of virus infection, and concern about burdening others) and associations between SARS/Ebola exposure and increased suicide attempts. A preprint study reported associations between COVID-19 distress and past-month suicidal ideation. Limitations: Few studies have investigated the topic; these are of relatively low methodological quality. Conclusion: Findings support an association between previous epidemics and increased risk of suicide-related outcomes. Research is needed to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on suicide outcomes

Climate and health in Africa

This paper describes the work of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and its partners towards the development of climate services for the health sector in Africa; integrating research, operational applications and capacity building alongside policy development and advocacy. It follows the evolution of IRI’s health work from an initial focus on the use of seasonal climate forecasts to a wider agenda serving climate and environmental information needs to a broad range of health-related users. Recognizing that climate information must be relevant to the priority policy and programming needs of national and international health stakeholders, this review highlights an approach that has centered not only on the assessment and creation of evidence, but also on knowledge transfer through engagement with decision-makers. Current opportunities and priorities identified for the routine use of climate and environmental information in health in Africa include: i) understanding mechanisms by which climate impacts on transmission and occurrence of disease; ii) mapping populations at risk both in space and by season; iii) developing early warning systems; iv) understanding the contributions of climate to trends in disease incidence v) improving the evaluation of the impacts of climate-sensitive interventions. While traditional metrics (e.g. peer review publications) have been important in establishing evidence for policy, the IRI’s role as a knowledge broker (in research and professional capacity building, facilitation of communities of practice, and engagement in policy dialogue at local and global scale) has been critical to delivery of its mission