Estimating the Resilience Value of Soil Biodiversity in Agriculture: A Stochastic Simulation Approach

Characteristic of ecosystems is that different organisms can have similar functions and hence provide similar ecosystem services. Consequently functional diversity can maintain the rate of services despite environmental fluctuations. In this paper we present a method for estimating the resilience value of biodiversity. Central to a resilience perspective on biological conservation is consideration of uncertainty about the future. To do this we propose stochastic simulation as a practical approach for valuing resilience due to the ease of incorporating uncertain variables. We demonstrate the approach by developing a stochastic simulation model for valuing soil biodiversity in agriculture. Our results indicate that the long time frames involved in soil processes create a significant incentive to perpetuate unsustainable farming systems and hence there might be a need for policy intervention. However we also show that investing in soil biodiversity conservation can provide significant risk diversification benefits that are not accounted for in a deterministic evaluation. These benefits can be estimated through stochastic simulation.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Relationships among Energy Price Shocks, Stock Market, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the interactive relationships among China energy price shocks, stock market, and themacroeconomy using multivariate vector autoregression.The results indicate that there is a long cointegration among them. A 1% rise in the energy price index can depress the stock market index by 0.54% and the industrial value-adding growth by 0.037%. Energy price shocks also cause inflation and have a 5-month lag effect on stock market, which may result in the stock market “underreacting.” The energy price can explain stock market fluctuations better than the interest rate over a longer time period. Consequently, investors should pay greater attention to the long-term effect of energy on the stock market

Estimating the resilience value of soil biodiversity in agriculture: a stochastic simulation approach

Abstract in UndeterminedCharacteristic of ecosystems is that different organisms can have similar functions and hence provide similar ecosystem services. Consequently functional diversity can maintain the rate of services despite environmental fluctuations. In this paper we present a method for estimating the resilience value of biodiversity. Central to a resilience perspective on biological conservation is consideration of uncertainty about the future. To do this we propose stochastic simulation as a practical approach for valuing resilience due to the ease of incorporating uncertain variables. We demonstrate the approach by developing a stochastic simulation model for valuing soil biodiversity in agriculture. Our results indicate that the long time frames involved in soil processes create a significant incentive to perpetuate unsustainable farming systems and hence there might be a need for policy intervention. However we also show that investing in soil biodiversity conservation can provide significant risk diversification benefits that are not accounted for in a deterministic evaluation. These benefits can be estimated through stochastic simulation

What land-use pattern emerges with landscape-scale management? An ecosystem-service perspective

It is argued that landscape-scale management (LSM) of habitat is better than farm-scale management (FSM) when considering the externality of ecosystem services. Given this advantage, how to regulate individual farmers' land-use decisions to achieve the LSM solution is an issue of common concern both for farmers and policymakers. Specifically, it needs to be determined if there exists a dominant land-use pattern that characterizes the LSM solution compared to FSM solution. In addition to the area of habitat, we design a land-use pattern index (LPI) to characterize the configuration of habitat and project itonto the sharing-sparing continuum. We find that the LSM solution is characterized by less intensive farming, and configurations of habitat are closer to land sharing. However, as crop dependency on ecosystem-services declines, the land-use patterns with LSM and FSM converge and the configurations of habitat start to resemble to land sparing. In addition, when habitat quality improves the configurations of habitat on the border farms become important. Finally, the less mobile service-providers are, the more farmers should focus on land-use patterns on their own farms. Our indices of land-use patterns could be integrated into the cross-compliance of CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) to better manage ecosystem-service in the future

Consumption-based emission accounting for Chinese cities

Most of China’s CO2 emissions are related to energy consumption in its cities. Thus, cities are critical for implementing China’s carbon emissions mitigation policies. In this study, we employ an input-output model to calculate consumption-based CO2 emissions for thirteen Chinese cities and find substantial differences between production- and consumption-based accounting in terms of both overall and per capita carbon emissions. Urban consumption not only leads to carbon emissions within a city’s own boundaries but also induces emissions in other regions via interregional trade. In megacities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin, approximately 70% of consumption-based emissions are imported from other regions. Annual per capita consumption-based emissions in the three megacities are 14, 12 and 10 tonnes of CO2 per person, respectively. Some medium-sized cities, such as Shenyang, Dalian and Ningbo, exhibit per capita emissions that resemble those in Tianjin. From the perspective of final use, capital formation is the largest contributor to consumption-based emissions at 32–65%. All thirteen cities are categorized by their trading patterns: five are production-based cities in which production-based emissions exceed consumption-based emissions, whereas eight are consumption-based cities, with the opposite emissions pattern. Moreover, production-based cities tend to become consumption-based as they undergo socioeconomic development

An optimization model for renewable energy generation and its application in China: A perspective of maximum utilization

In response to climate change, China's power industry is undertaking the task of reducing carbon emissions. Renewable energy generation has become an important option. For the government and state grid companies, it is important to know the maximum possible capacities of renewable energy generation from its different sources in order to plan the construction of the power grid in the future. In this paper, several important factors affecting the development of renewable energy generation are identified through a review of the existing literature (such as cost, technical maturity and so on) and analyzed. Combined with the learning curve model, the technology diffusion model and expectations about future economic development in China, a new model, the Renewable Energy Optimization Model (REOM), is developed to analyze the development of three renewable energy sources (wind power, solar power and biomass power) from 2009 to 2020. Results show that (1) the maximum installed capacities of wind power, solar power and biomass power will reach 233321, 26680 and 35506 MW in 2020; (2) from 2009 to 2020, biomass power will develop rapidly at the early stage while wind power is developed massively at the final stage and solar power has relatively stable growth; (3) due to the added capacity in the early periods, the unit investment cost of solar power shows a large decline, which is good for its following scale development; (4) the investment ratio constraint has a large effect on the development of wind power while the constraint of on-grid proportion of renewable energy generation has a significant effect on the development of wind power and solar power. The results have important policy implications for long-term energy planning in developing countries, such as China and India

Is There an Optimal Strategic Oil Reserve for Each Country? A Study Based on the Game Theory

In generally, there is a phenomenon of “free rider” in the establishment of national oil reserves for different countries, which means that they have the tendency of underestimating the strategic oil reserves. This paper attempts to explain this phenomenon from the perspective of non-cooperative game theory. It also analyzes the establishment of strategic oil reserve among different countries based on the coalition game theory and presents the core solution for it. The results show that based on a certain constraint mechanism, it is feasible for different countries to establish their own suitable strategic oil reserves in theory and practice

Estimating the Resilience Value of Soil Biodiversity in Agriculture: A Stochastic Simulation Approach

Characteristic of ecosystems is that different organisms can have similar functions and hence provide similar ecosystem services. Consequently functional diversity can maintain the rate of services despite environmental fluctuations. In this paper we present a method for estimating the resilience value of biodiversity. Central to a resilience perspective on biological conservation is consideration of uncertainty about the future. To do this we propose stochastic simulation as a practical approach for valuing resilience due to the ease of incorporating uncertain variables. We demonstrate the approach by developing a stochastic simulation model for valuing soil biodiversity in agriculture. Our results indicate that the long time frames involved in soil processes create a significant incentive to perpetuate unsustainable farming systems and hence there might be a need for policy intervention. However we also show that investing in soil biodiversity conservation can provide significant risk diversification benefits that are not accounted for in a deterministic evaluation. These benefits can be estimated through stochastic simulation

Samverkan kring habitatförvaltning höjer avkastningen i jordbruket

Pollinering med hjälp av vilda insekter gynnar pollineringsberoende grödor. Anläggning och bevarande av pollinatörsvänliga habitat är därför en investering som kan öka avkastningen i jordbruket. Pollinerare är mobila organismer som rör sig över större avstånd i landskapet. Därför kan ett habitat vara till nytta inte bara för den jordbrukare som förvaltar det, utan även för gårdar runtomkring. Vi undersöker fördelarna med att habitat förvaltas på landskapsnivå istället för av den enskilde jordbrukaren. Vi finner att koordinerad förvaltning av habitat leder till att mer habitatyta anläggs och att den sprids ut på ett bättre sätt i landskapet, att alla gårdar i landskapet får ökad avkastning om habitat förvaltas med ett landskapsperspektiv och att Politiska styrmedel eller mer information om fördelarna behövs för att jordbrukarna ska samverka kring förvaltningen av habitat