405 research outputs found

    A double epidemic model for the SARS propagation

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    BACKGROUND: An epidemic of a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) caused by a new coronavirus has spread from the Guangdong province to the rest of China and to the world, with a puzzling contagion behavior. It is important both for predicting the future of the present outbreak and for implementing effective prophylactic measures, to identify the causes of this behavior. RESULTS: In this report, we show first that the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model cannot account for the patterns observed in various regions where the disease spread. We develop a model involving two superimposed epidemics to study the recent spread of the SARS in Hong Kong and in the region. We explore the situation where these epidemics may be caused either by a virus and one or several mutants that changed its tropism, or by two unrelated viruses. This has important consequences for the future: the innocuous epidemic might still be there and generate, from time to time, variants that would have properties similar to those of SARS. CONCLUSION: We find that, in order to reconcile the existing data and the spread of the disease, it is convenient to suggest that a first milder outbreak protected against the SARS. Regions that had not seen the first epidemic, or that were affected simultaneously with the SARS suffered much more, with a very high percentage of persons affected. We also find regions where the data appear to be inconsistent, suggesting that they are incomplete or do not reflect an appropriate identification of SARS patients. Finally, we could, within the framework of the model, fix limits to the future development of the epidemic, allowing us to identify landmarks that may be useful to set up a monitoring system to follow the evolution of the epidemic. The model also suggests that there might exist a SARS precursor in a large reservoir, prompting for implementation of precautionary measures when the weather cools down

    Involvement of TLR2 in Recognition of Acute Gammaherpesvirus-68 Infection

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    Toll-like receptors (TLRs) play a crucial role in the activation of innate immunity in response to many viruses. We previously reported the implication of TLR2 in the recognition of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) by human monocytes. Because murine gammaherpesvirus-68 (MHV-68) is a useful model to study human gammaherpesvirus pathogenesis in vivo, we evaluated the importance of mouse TLR2 in the recognition of MHV-68.In studies using transfected HEK293 cells, MHV-68 lead to the activation of NF-ĪŗB reporter through TLR2. In addition, production of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and interferon-Ī± (IFN-Ī±) upon MHV-68 stimulation was reduced in murine embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) derived from TLR2-/- and MyD88-/- mice as compared to their wild type (WT) counterpart. In transgenic mice expressing a luciferase reporter gene under the control of the mTLR2 promoter, MHV-68 challenge activated TLR2 transcription. Increased expression levels of TLR2 on blood granulocytes (CD115(-)Gr1(+)) and inflammatory monocytes (CD115(+)Gr1(+)), which mobilized to the lungs upon infection with MHV-68, was also confirmed by flow cytometry. Finally, TLR2 or MyD88 deficiency was associated with decreased IL-6 and type 1 IFN production as well as increased viral burden during short-term challenges with MHV-68.TLR2 contributes to the production of inflammatory cytokines and type 1 IFN as well as to the control of viral burden during infection with MHV-68. Taken together, our results suggest that the TLR2 pathway has a relevant role in the recognition of this virus and in the subsequent activation of the innate immune response

    Mucinous histology predicts for poor response rate and overall survival of patients with colorectal cancer and treated with first-line oxaliplatin- and/or irinotecan-based chemotherapy

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    The objective of this study was to investigate the efficacy of first-line chemotherapy containing irinotecan and/or oxaliplatin in patients with advanced mucinous colorectal cancer. Prognostic factors associated with response rate and survival were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic and/or Cox proportional hazards analyses. The population included 255 patients, of whom 49 (19%) had mucinous and 206 (81%) had non-mucinous colorectal cancer. The overall response rates for mucinous and non-mucinous tumours were 18.4 (95% CI, 7.5ā€“29.2%) and 49% (95% CI, 42.2ā€“55.8%), respectively (P=0.0002). After a median follow-up of 45 months, median overall survival for the mucinous patients was 14.0 months compared with 23.4 months for the non-mucinous group (hazard ratio (HR), 1.74; CI 95%, 1.27ā€“3.31; P=0.0034). After adjustment for significant features by multivariate Cox regression analysis, mucinous histology was associated with poor overall survival (HR, 1.593, 95% CI, 1.05ā€“2.40; P=0.0267), together with performance status ECOG 2, number of metastatic sites ā©¾2, and peritoneal metastases. This retrospective analysis shows that patients with mucinous colorectal cancer have poor responsiveness to oxaliplatin/irinotecan-based first-line combination chemotherapy and an unfavourable prognosis compared with non-mucinous colorectal cancer patients

    Review of the literature and suggestions for the design of rodent survival studies for the identification of compounds that increase health and life span

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    Much of the literature describing the search for agents that increase the life span of rodents was found to suffer from confounds. One-hundred-six studies, absent 20 contradictory melatonin studies, of compounds or combinations of compounds were reviewed. Only six studies reported both life span extension and food consumption data, thereby excluding the potential effects of caloric restriction. Six other studies reported life span extension without a change in body weight. However, weight can be an unreliable surrogate measure of caloric consumption. Twenty studies reported that food consumption or weight was unchanged, but it was unclear whether these data were anecdotal or systematic. Twenty-nine reported extended life span likely due to induced caloric restriction. Thirty-six studies reported no effect on life span, and three a decrease. The remaining studies suffer from more serious confounds. Though still widely cited, studies showing life span extension using short-lived or ā€œenfeebledā€ rodents have not been shown to predict longevity effects in long-lived animals. We suggest improvements in experimental design that will enhance the reliability of the rodent life span literature. First, animals should receive measured quantities of food and its consumption monitored, preferably daily, and reported. Weights should be measured regularly and reported. Second, a genetically heterogeneous, long-lived rodent should be utilized. Third, chemically defined diets should be used. Fourth, a positive control (e.g., a calorically restricted group) is highly desirable. Fifth, drug dosages should be chosen based on surrogate endpoints or accepted cross-species scaling factors. These procedures should improve the reliability of the scientific literature and accelerate the identification of longevity and health span-enhancing agents

    Three Years after Legalization of Nonprescription Pharmacy Syringe Sales in California: Where Are We Now?

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    In January 2005, passage of California Senate Bill 1159 enabled Californiaā€™s county or city governments to establish disease prevention demonstration projects (DPDPs) through which pharmacies could subsequently register to legally sell up to 10 syringes to adults without a prescription. Californiaā€™s 61 local health jurisdictions (LHJs) were surveyed annually in 2005ā€“2007 to monitor the progress of DPDP implementation and assess program coverage, facilitators, and barriers. Completed surveys were returned by mail, fax, e-mail, phone, or internet. We analyzed 2007 survey data to describe current DPDP status; data from all years were analyzed for trends in approval and implementation status. By 2007, 17 (27.9%) LHJs approved DPDPs, of which 14 (82.4%) had registered 532 (17.8%) of the 2,987 pharmacies in these 14 LHJs. Although only three LHJs added DPDPs since 2006, the number of registered pharmacies increased 102% from 263 previously reported. Among the LHJs without approved DPDPs in 2007, one (2.3%) was in the approval process, seven (16.3%) planned to seek approval, and 35 (81.4%) reported no plans to seek approval. Of 35 LHJs not planning to seek approval, the top four reasons were: limited health department time (40%) or interest (34%), pharmacy disinterest (31%), and law enforcement opposition (26%). Among eight LHJs pursuing approval, the main barriers were ā€œtime managementā€ (13%), educating stakeholders (13%), and enlisting pharmacy participation (13%). The17 LHJs with DPDP represent 52% of Californiaā€™s residents; they included 62% of persons living with HIV and 59% of IDU-related HIV cases, suggesting that many LHJs with significant numbers of HIV cases have approved DPDPs. Outcome studies are needed to determine whether SB 1159 had the desired impact on increasing syringe access and reducing blood-borne viral infection risk among California IDUs

    Increased Local Retention of Reef Coral Larvae as a Result of Ocean Warming

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    Climate change will alter many aspects of the ecology of organisms, including dispersal patterns and population connectivity. Understanding these changes is essential to predict future species distributions, estimate potential for adaptation, and design effective networks of protected areas. In marine environments, dispersal is often accomplished by larvae. At higher temperatures, larvae develop faster, but suffer higher mortality, making the effect of temperature on dispersal difficult to predict. Here, we experimentally calibrate the effect of temperature on larval survival and settlement in a dynamic model of coral dispersal. Our findings imply that most reefs globally will experience several-fold increases in local retention of larvae due to ocean warming. This increase will be particularly pronounced for reefs with mean water residence times comparable to the time required for species to become competent to settle. Higher local retention rates strengthen the link between abundance and recruitment at the reef scale, suggesting that populations will be more responsive to local conservation actions. Higher rates of local retention and mortality will weaken connectivity between populations, and thus potentially retard recovery following severe disturbances that substantially deplete local populations. Conversely, on isolated reefs that are dependent on replenishment from local broodstock, increases in local retention may hasten recovery

    Lithic technological responses to Late Pleistocene glacial cycling at Pinnacle Point Site 5-6, South Africa

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    There are multiple hypotheses for human responses to glacial cycling in the Late Pleistocene, including changes in population size, interconnectedness, and mobility. Lithic technological analysis informs us of human responses to environmental change because lithic assemblage characteristics are a reflection of raw material transport, reduction, and discard behaviors that depend on hunter-gatherer social and economic decisions. Pinnacle Point Site 5-6 (PP5-6), Western Cape, South Africa is an ideal locality for examining the influence of glacial cycling on early modern human behaviors because it preserves a long sequence spanning marine isotope stages (MIS) 5, 4, and 3 and is associated with robust records of paleoenvironmental change. The analysis presented here addresses the question, what, if any, lithic assemblage traits at PP5-6 represent changing behavioral responses to the MIS 5-4-3 interglacial-glacial cycle? It statistically evaluates changes in 93 traits with no a priori assumptions about which traits may significantly associate with MIS. In contrast to other studies that claim that there is little relationship between broad-scale patterns of climate change and lithic technology, we identified the following characteristics that are associated with MIS 4: increased use of quartz, increased evidence for outcrop sources of quartzite and silcrete, increased evidence for earlier stages of reduction in silcrete, evidence for increased flaking efficiency in all raw material types, and changes in tool types and function for silcrete. Based on these results, we suggest that foragers responded to MIS 4 glacial environmental conditions at PP5-6 with increased population or group sizes, 'place provisioning', longer and/or more intense site occupations, and decreased residential mobility. Several other traits, including silcrete frequency, do not exhibit an association with MIS. Backed pieces, once they appear in the PP5-6 record during MIS 4, persist through MIS 3. Changing paleoenvironments explain some, but not all temporal technological variability at PP5-6.Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada; NORAM; American-Scandinavian Foundation; Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia [SFRH/BPD/73598/2010]; IGERT [DGE 0801634]; Hyde Family Foundations; Institute of Human Origins; National Science Foundation [BCS-9912465, BCS-0130713, BCS-0524087, BCS-1138073]; John Templeton Foundation to the Institute of Human Origins at Arizona State Universit

    Gamma radiation induces hydrogen absorption by copper in water

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    One of the most intricate issues of nuclear power is the long-term safety of repositories for radioactive waste. These repositories can have an impact on future generations for a period of time orders of magnitude longer than any known civilization. Several countries have considered copper as an outer corrosion barrier for canisters containing spent nuclear fuel. Among the many processes that must be considered in the safety assessments, radiation induced processes constitute a key-component. Here we show that copper metal immersed in water uptakes considerable amounts of hydrogen when exposed to Ī³-radiation. Additionally we show that the amount of hydrogen absorbed by copper depends on the total dose of radiation. At a dose of 69 kGy the uptake of hydrogen by metallic copper is 7 orders of magnitude higher than when the absorption is driven by H2(g) at a pressure of 1 atm in a non-irradiated dry system. Moreover, irradiation of copper in water causes corrosion of the metal and the formation of a variety of surface cavities, nanoparticle deposits, and islands of needle-shaped crystals. Hence, radiation enhanced uptake of hydrogen by spent nuclear fuel encapsulating materials should be taken into account in the safety assessments of nuclear waste repositories.Peer reviewe

    Barriers to Pharmacy-Based Syringe Purchase Among Injection Drug Users in Tijuana, Mexico: A Mixed Methods Study

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    Injection drug users (IDUs) may be denied purchase of sterile syringes even where purchase without a prescription is legal. This study examined barriers to over-the-counter (OTC) syringe purchase among IDUs in Tijuana, Mexico. A quantitative survey and subsequent focus groups were used to quantify barriers to purchase, identify their correlates and provide in-depth exploration of syringe purchase experiences. Of 627 IDUs, 81% purchased a syringe in the past 6Ā months and 16% were refused or overcharged. Factors independently associated with refusal/overcharging were homelessness, receptive syringe sharing, >5 uses per syringe, and number of lifetime abscesses. Few pharmacies sold syringes to IDUs, who adapted by limiting purchase attempts to pharmacies known to sell syringes consistently. Failed purchases occurred when drug withdrawal required purchase at unusual times or locations, often following release from jail. IDUs reported syringe sharing, syringe reuse, and searching through unsecured medical waste for syringes in response to failed purchase attempts. Interventions to expand OTC syringe sales to IDUs, particularly near detention facilities, will facilitate safer injection practices
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