FOREWORD: Satellite Remote Sensing Beyond 2015

Satellite remote sensing has progressed tremendously since the first Landsat was launched on June 23, 1972. Since the 1970s, satellite remote sensing and associated airborne and in situ measurements have resulted in vital and indispensable observations for understanding our planet through time. These observations have also led to dramatic improvements in numerical simulation models of the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean systems at increasing accuracies and predictive capability. The same observations document the Earth's climate and are driving the consensus that Homo sapiens is changing our climate through greenhouse gas emissions. These accomplishments are the combined work of many scientists from many countries and a dedicated cadre of engineers who build the instruments and satellites that collect Earth observation data from satellites, all working toward the goal of improving our understanding of the Earth. This edition of the Remote Sensing Handbook (Vol. I, II, and III) is a compendium of information for many research areas of our Planet that have contributed to our substantial progress since the 1970s. Remote sensing community is now using multiple sources of satellite and in situ data to advance our studies, what ever they might be. In the following paragraphs, I will illustrate how valuable and pivotal role satellite remote sensing has played in climate system study over last five decades, The Chapters in the Remote Sensing Handbook (Vol. I, II, and III) provides many other specific studies on land, water, and other applications using EO data of last five decades, The Landsat system of Earth-observing satellites has led the way in pioneering sustained observations of our planet. From 1972 to the present, at least one and sometimes two Landsat satellites have been in operation. Starting with the launch of the first NOAA-NASA Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites NOAA-6 in 1978, improved imaging of land, clouds, and oceans and atmospheric soundings of temperature were accomplished. The NOAA system of polar-orbiting meteorological satellites has continued uninterrupted since that time, providing vital observations for numerical weather prediction. These same satellites are also responsible for the remarkable records of sea surface temperature and land vegetation index from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) that now span more than 33 years, although no one anticipated these valuable climate records from this instrument before the launch of NOAA-7 in 1981. The success of data from the AVHRR led to the design of the MODIS instruments on NASA's Earth Observing System of satellite platforms that improved substantially upon the AVHRR. The first of the EOS platforms, Terra, was launched in 2000 and the second of these platforms, Aqua, was launched in 2002

Historical Perspectives on AVHRR NDVI and Vegetation Drought Monitoring

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Tree Density and Species Decline in the African Sahel Attributable to Climate

Increased aridity and human population have reduced tree cover in parts of the African Sahel and degraded resources for local people. Yet, tree cover trends and the relative importance of climate and population remain unresolved. From field measurements, aerial photos, and Ikonos satellite images, we detected significant 1954-2002 tree density declines in the western Sahel of 18 +/- 14% (P = 0.014, n = 204) and 17 +/- 13% (P = 0.0009, n = 187). From field observations, we detected a significant 1960-2000 species richness decline of 21 +/- 11% (P = 0.0028, n = 14) across the Sahel and a southward shift of the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea zones. Multivariate analyses of climate, soil, and population showed that temperature most significantly (P < 0.001) explained tree cover changes. Multivariate and bivariate tests and field observations indicated the dominance of temperature and precipitation, supporting attribution of tree cover changes to climate variability. Climate change forcing of Sahel climate variability, particularly the significant (P < 0.05) 1901-2002 temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the research areas, connects Sahel tree cover changes to global climate change. This suggests roles for global action and local adaptation to address ecological change in the Sahel

A Non-Stationary 1981-2012 AVHRR NDVI(sub 3g) Time Series

The NDVI(sub 3g) time series is an improved 8-km normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data set produced from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments that extends from 1981 to the present. The AVHRR instruments have flown or are flying on fourteen polar-orbiting meteorological satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and are currently flying on two European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites, MetOp-A and MetOp-B. This long AVHRR record is comprised of data from two different sensors: the AVHRR/2 instrument that spans July 1981 to November 2000 and the AVHRR/3 instrument that continues these measurements from November 2000 to the present. The main difficulty in processing AVHRR NDVI data is to properly deal with limitations of the AVHRR instruments. Complicating among-instrument AVHRR inter-calibration of channels one and two is the dual gain introduced in late 2000 on the AVHRR/3 instruments for both these channels. We have processed NDVI data derived from the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) from 1997 to 2010 to overcome among-instrument AVHRR calibration difficulties. We use Bayesian methods with high quality well-calibrated SeaWiFS NDVI data for deriving AVHRR NDVI calibration parameters. Evaluation of the uncertainties of our resulting NDVI values gives an error of plus or minus 0.005 NDVI units for our 1981 to present data set that is independent of time within our AVHRR NDVI continuum and has resulted in a non-stationary climate data set

Using Satellite Remote Sensing to Study the Impact of Climate and Anthropogenic Changes in the Mesopotamian Marshlands, Iraq

The Iraqi Marshes in Southern Iraq are considered one of the most important wetlands in the world. From 1982 to the present, their area has varied between 10,500 km2 and 20,000 km2. The marshes support a variety of plants, such as reeds and papyrus, and are home to many species of birds. These marshes are Al-Hammar, Central or Al-Amarah, and Al-Huwaiza. Freshwater supplies to the marshes come from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in Iraq and from the Karkha River from Iran. For this analysis, we used the Land Long-Term Data Record Version 5 (LTDR V5) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor dataset. This dataset was recently released at a 0.05 × 0.05° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution to monitor the spatial and temporal variability of vegetation along with other hydrological variables such as land surface temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. In our analysis, we considered three time periods: 1982–1992; 1993–2003; and 2004–2017 due to anthropogenic activities and climate changes. Furthermore, we examined the relationships between various water cycle variables through the investigation of vegetation and water coverage changes, and studied the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the Iraqi Marshes and considered additional ground observations along with the satellite datasets. Statistical analyses over the last 36 years show significant deterioration in the vegetation: 68.78%, 98.73, and 83.71% of the green biomass has declined for Al-Hammar, The Central marshes, and Al-Huwaiza, respectively. The AVHRR and Landsat images illustrate a decrease in water and vegetation coverage, which in turn has led to an increase in barren lands. Unfortunately, statistical analyses show that marshland degradation is mainly induced by human actions. The shrinkage in water supplies taken by Iraq’s local neighbors (i.e., Turkey, Syria, and Iran) has had a sharp impact on water levels. The annual discharge of the Tigris declined from ~2500–3000 m3/s to ~500 m3/s, and the annual discharge of the Euphrates River declined from ~1500 m3/s to less than 500 m3/s

Satellite Detection of Ebola River Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemics Trigger Events

Ebola hemorrhagic fever, named after the Ebola River in Central Africa, first appeared in June 1976, during an outbreak in Nzara and Maridi, Sudan. In September 1976, a separate outbreak was recognized in Yambuku, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). One fatal case was identified in Tandala, DRC, in June 1977, followed by another outbreak in Nzara, Sudan, in July 1979. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks results in a very high mortality of patients who contract the disease: from 50 to 80% of infected people perish from this highly virulent disease. Death is gruesome, with those afflicted bleeding to death from massive hemorrhaging of organs and capillaries. The disease was not identified again until the end of 1994, when three outbreaks occurred almost simultaneously in Africa. In October, an outbreak was identified in a chimpanzee community studied by primatologists in Tal, Cote d'lvoire, with one human infection. The following month, multiple cases were reported in northeast Gabon in the gold panning camps of Mekouka, Andock, and Minkebe. Later that same month, the putative index case of the 1995 Kikwit, DRC, outbreak was exposed through an unknown mechanism while working in a charcoal pit. In Gabon, two additional outbreaks were reported in February and JuIy,1996, respectively, in Mayibout II, a village 40 km south of the original outbreak in the gold panning camps, and a logging camp between Ovan and Koumameyong, near Booue. The largest Ebola hemorrhagic fever epidemic occurred in Gulu District, Uganda from August 2000 to January 2001. In December 2001, Ebola reappeared in the Ogooue-lvindo Province, Gabon with extension into Mbomo District, The Republic of the Congo lasting until July 2002. Since 2002 there have been several outbreaks of Ebola hemorrhagic fever in Gabon and adjacent areas of Congo. Of interest is the seasonal context and occasional temporal clustering of Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks. Near simultaneous appearances of Ebola epidemics in Nzara, Sudan and Yambuku, DRC in 1976 occurred within two months of each other in two geographic locations separated by hundreds of kilometers involving two separate viral strains (Sudan and Zaire EBO strains). The outbreaks of Tal, Cote d'lvoire; Mekouka, Gabon; and Kikwit, DRC in late 1994 also occurred within months of each other in three different geographic regions involving two different viral strains (Cote d'lvoire and Zaire EBO strains). Fifteen years passed between the 1976-9 and 1994-6 temporal clusters of Ebola cases without identification of additional cases

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Fungal Disease Emergence and Spread

Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to colonize higher elevation lakes, only to be followed shortly by the emergence of fungal disease in the new habitats

Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

BACKGROUND: El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. RESULTS: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 – January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness. CONCLUSION: The current development of El Niño conditions has significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions will occur. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe developing global climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks that will give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies

Space Archeology Overview at Gordion: 2010 to 2012

In fiscal years 2010, 2011, and 2012, Compton Tucker was the principal investigator of a NASA Space Archaeology project that worked at Gordion, in Central Turkey. Tucker was assisted by an excellent team of co-workers including Joseph Nigro and Daniel Slayback of Science Systems Applications Incorporated, Jenny Strum of the University of New Mexico, and Karina Yager, a post doctoral fellow at NASA/GSFC. This report summaries their research activities at Gordion for the field seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012. Because of the possible use of our findings at Gordion for tomb robbing there and/or the encouragement of potential tomb robbers using our geophysical survey methods to locate areas to loot, we have not published any of our survey results in the open literature nor placed any of these results on any web sites. These 2010- 2012 survey results remain in the confidential archives of the University of Pennsylvania's University Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology, the group that leads the Gordion Excavation and Research Project. Excavations are planned for 2013 at Gordion, including several that will be based upon the research results in this report. The site of Gordion in central Turkey, famous as the home of King Midas, whose father's intricately tied knot gave the site its name, also served as the center of the Phrygian kingdom that ruled much of Central Anatolia in Asia Minor during the early first millennium B.C. Gordion has been a University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology excavation project since 1950, yet the site is incompletely published despite six decades of research. The primary obstacles related to the site and its preservation were two problems that NASA technology could address: (1) critical survey errors in the hundreds of maps and plans produced by the earlier excavators, most of which used mutually incompatible geospatial referencing systems, that prevented any systematic understanding of the site; and (2) agricultural encroachment upon the site that was compromising its archaeological integrity. Our NASA Space Archaeology proposal was written to address both of these problems. When we started working at Gordion in 2010, we added a third objective, (3) ground penetrating radar and magnetic geophysical surveys of threatened areas. The first objective our NASA Space Archaeology Project was to provide the University of Pennsylvania's Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology a system to rectify and incorporate all existing survey data from Gordion, including previous aerial photographs of the site, detailed site surveys, maps, and excavation plans, into a common mapping system. This was accomplished with a Geographic Information System (GIS) based upon a 60 cm Quickbird satellite image ortho-rectified using Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) 30 m digital elevation data and tied to a known datum at Gordion. This enabled the first accurate, multi-layer plan of this complex site, occupied almost continuously from the Bronze Age to the 1st millennium CE, and made possible Gordion's three-dimensional development for the first time

North American Vegetation Dynamics Observed with Multi-Resolution Satellite Data

North American vegetation has been discovered to be a net carbon sink, with atypical behavior of drawing down more carbon from the atmosphere during the past century. It has been suggested that the Northern Hemisphere will respond favorably to climate warming by enhancing productivity and reducing the impact of fossil fuel emissions into the atmosphere. Many investigations are currently underway to understand and identify mechanisms of storage so they might be actively managed to offset carbon emissions which have detrimental consequences to the functioning of ecosystems and human well being. This paper used a time series of satellite data from multiple sensors at multiple resolutions over the past thlrty years to identify and understand mechanisms of change to vegetation productivity throughout North America. We found that humans had a marked impact to vegetation growth in half of the six selected study regions which cover greater than two million km2. We found climatic influences of increasing temperatures, and longer growing seasons with reduced snow cover in the northern regions of North America with forest fire recovery in the Northern coniferous forests of Canada. The Mid-latitudes had more direct land cover changes induced by humans coupled with climatic influences such as severe drought and altered production strategies of rain-fed agriculture in the upper Midwest, expansion of irrigated agriculture in the lower Midwest, and insect outbreaks followed by subsequent logging in the upper Northeast. Vegetation growth over long time periods (20+ years) in North America appears to be associated with long term climate change but most of the marked changes appear to be associated with climate variability on decadal and shorter time scales along with direct human land cover conversions. Our results document regional land cover land use change and climatic influences that have altered continental scale vegetation dynamics in North America