Focused cardiac ultrasound screening for rheumatic heart disease by briefl y trained health workers: a study of diagnostic accuracy

Background Echocardiographic screening for rheumatic heart disease (RHD) can identify individuals with subclinical disease who could benefi t from antibiotic prophylaxis. However, most settings have inadequate resources to implement conventional echocardiography and require a feasible, accurate screening method. We aimed to investigate the accuracy of screening by non-expert operators using focused cardiac ultrasound (FoCUS). Methods In this prospective study of diagnostic accuracy, we recruited schoolchildren aged 5 to 15 years in Fiji to undergo two blinded tests. The index test was a FoCUS assessment of mitral and aortic regurgitation, performed by nurses after an 8-week training programme. The reference standard was the diagnosis of RHD by a paediatric cardiologist, based on a standard echocardiogram performed by a skilled echocardiographer. The primary outcome was the accuracy of the index test with use of the most sensitive criteria (any regurgitation). Findings We included 2004 children in the study. The index tests were done between September, 2012, and September, 2013, by seven nurses in eight schools in Fiji. The diagnostic accuracy of the screening test (area under receiver operator characteristic curve) was 0·89 (95% CI 0·83–0·94). When the primary cut-off point (any regurgitation) was used for analysis, sensitivity was 84·2% (72·1–92·5) and specifi city was 85·6% (83·9–87·1). The sensitivity of individual nurses ranged from 66·7% to 100% and specifi city 74·0% to 93·7%. Interpretation Screening by briefl y trained nurses using FoCUS was accurate for the diagnosis of RHD. Refi nements to training and screening test methods should be studied in a range of settings, and in parallel with investigations of the long-term clinical and cost-eff ectiveness of screening for RHD

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6–16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9–14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1–44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7–51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8–34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3–37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000–183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000–532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundatio

Rheumatic Heart Disease-Attributable Mortality at Ages 5-69 Years in Fiji: A Five-Year, National, Population-Based Record-Linkage Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is considered a major public health problem in developing countries, although scarce data are available to substantiate this. Here we quantify mortality from RHD in Fiji during 2008-2012 in people aged 5-69 years. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using 1,773,999 records derived from multiple sources of routine clinical and administrative data, we used probabilistic record-linkage to define a cohort of 2,619 persons diagnosed with RHD, observed for all-cause mortality over 11,538 person-years. Using relative survival methods, we estimated there were 378 RHD-attributable deaths, almost half of which occurred before age 40 years. Using census data as the denominator, we calculated there were 9.9 deaths (95% CI 9.8-10.0) and 331 years of life-lost (YLL, 95% CI 330.4-331.5) due to RHD per 100,000 person-years, standardised to the portion of the WHO World Standard Population aged 0-69 years. Valuing life using Fiji's per-capita gross domestic product, we estimated these deaths cost United States Dollar $6,077,431 annually. Compared to vital registration data for 2011-2012, we calculated there were 1.6-times more RHD-attributable deaths than the number reported, and found our estimate of RHD mortality exceeded all but the five leading reported causes of premature death, based on collapsed underlying cause-of-death diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: Rheumatic heart disease is a leading cause of premature death as well as an important economic burden in this setting. Age-standardised death rates are more than twice those reported in current global estimates. Linkage of routine data provides an efficient tool to better define the epidemiology of neglected diseases

Ca2+-Dependent Phosphorylation of RyR2 Can Uncouple Channel Gating from Direct Cytosolic Ca2+ Regulation

Phosphorylation of the cardiac ryanodine receptor (RyR2) is thought to be important not only for normal cardiac excitation-contraction coupling but also in exacerbating abnormalities in Ca2+ homeostasis in heart failure. Linking phosphorylation to specific changes in the single-channel function of RyR2 has proved very difficult, yielding much controversy within the field. We therefore investigated the mechanistic changes that take place at the single-channel level after phosphorylating RyR2 and, in particular, the idea that PKA-dependent phosphorylation increases RyR2 sensitivity to cytosolic Ca2+. We show that hyperphosphorylation by exogenous PKA increases open probability (Po) but, crucially, RyR2 becomes uncoupled from the influence of cytosolic Ca2+; lowering [Ca2+] to subactivating levels no longer closes the channels. Phosphatase (PP1) treatment reverses these gating changes, returning the channels to a Ca2+-sensitive mode of gating. We additionally found that cytosolic incubation with Mg2+/ATP in the absence of exogenously added kinase could phosphorylate RyR2 in approximately 50% of channels, thereby indicating that an endogenous kinase incorporates into the bilayer together with RyR2. Channels activated by the endogenous kinase exhibited identical changes in gating behavior to those activated by exogenous PKA, including uncoupling from the influence of cytosolic Ca2+. We show that the endogenous kinase is both Ca2+-dependent and sensitive to inhibitors of PKC. Moreover, the Ca2+-dependent, endogenous kinase–induced changes in RyR2 gating do not appear to be related to phosphorylation of serine-2809. Further work is required to investigate the identity and physiological role of this Ca2+-dependent endogenous kinase that can uncouple RyR2 gating from direct cytosolic Ca2+ regulation

FKBP12 Activates the Cardiac Ryanodine Receptor Ca2+-Release Channel and Is Antagonised by FKBP12.6

Changes in FKBP12.6 binding to cardiac ryanodine receptors (RyR2) are implicated in mediating disturbances in Ca2+-homeostasis in heart failure but there is controversy over the functional effects of FKBP12.6 on RyR2 channel gating. We have therefore investigated the effects of FKBP12.6 and another structurally similar molecule, FKBP12, which is far more abundant in heart, on the gating of single sheep RyR2 channels incorporated into planar phospholipid bilayers and on spontaneous waves of Ca2+-induced Ca2+-release in rat isolated permeabilised cardiac cells. We demonstrate that FKBP12 is a high affinity activator of RyR2, sensitising the channel to cytosolic Ca2+, whereas FKBP12.6 has very low efficacy, but can antagonise the effects of FKBP12. Mathematical modelling of the data shows the importance of the relative concentrations of FKBP12 and FKBP12.6 in determining RyR2 activity. Consistent with the single-channel results, physiological concentrations of FKBP12 (3 µM) increased Ca2+-wave frequency and decreased the SR Ca2+-content in cardiac cells. FKBP12.6, itself, had no effect on wave frequency but antagonised the effects of FKBP12

The burden of unintentional drowning: Global, regional and national estimates of mortality from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

__Background:__ Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study's objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017. __Methods:__ Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning. __Results:__ Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes. __Conclusions:__ There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low-and middle-income countries