Home for Good? Preparing to Support People with Learning Difficulties in Residential Settings when they Develop Dementia

This report explores the findings of a study which investigated the current models of practice for supporting people with learning difficulties and dementia living in care home settings. It looked at the key issues and discovered examples of best practice in relating to providing care homes for this group. The report includes a poster with some quick tips for staff supporting people with learning difficulties and dementia

Exposure to bile influences biofilm formation by Listeria monocytogenes

In the present study we demonstrate that the initial attachment of Listeria monocytogenes cells to plastic surfaces was significantly increased by growth in the presence of bile. Improved biofilm formation was confirmed by crystal violet staining, microscopy and bioluminescence detection of a luciferase-tagged strain. Enhanced biofilm formation in response to bile may influence the ability of L. monocytogenes to form biofilms in vivo during infection and may contribute to survival of this important pathogen in the human gastrointestinal tract and gallbladder

Clinically guided core biopsy and cutaneous punch biopsy in the evaluation of breast lesions:a necessary test or an obsolete skill?

OBJECTIVE: The vast majority of breast cancers are diagnosed via image-guided procedures yet despite significant advances, imaging does not identify all breast malignancies. Clinically suspicious breast lesions with normal breast imaging remain a cause for concern. The aim of this study is to determine the diagnostic value of clinical core and cutaneous punch biopsies in the diagnosis of breast malignancy in clinically suspicious lesions with normal breast imaging. METHODS: All patients with suspicious clinical breast findings and normal imaging who underwent a clinical core and/or cutaneous punch biopsy from 2012 to 2019 were reviewed retrospectively. Patients with subsequent breast malignant diagnosis were analysed. RESULTS: A total of 283 biopsies (166 clinical core, 117 cutaneous punch) performed over the 7-year period were included in the analysis. A total of 263/283 (93%) yielded a benign outcome. A total of 2/283 (0.7%) yielded B3 lesions (probably benign). These lesions were benign on final surgical excision. A total of 18/283 (6.3%) yielded a malignant histopathology. Sixteen out of 18 were cutaneous punch biopsies, and 2/18 were clinical core biopsies. A total of 14/18 patients presented with nipple changes, while 4/18 had a palpable area of concern. Histopathological analysis demonstrated Paget’s disease of the nipple in 8/18, invasive carcinoma in 9/18 out of which two represented a recurrence of breast malignancy. Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma was diagnosed in 1/18. CONCLUSION: Clinical core and cutaneous punch biopsies remain a valuable tool in the diagnosis of breast cancer particularly in the management of clinically suspicious radiographically occult malignancies

African Drought Risk Pay-Out Benchmarking

This report contains exploratory data analysis of rainfall and Water Resource Sufficiency Index (WRSI) data provided by African Risk Ca- pacity (ARC). The purpose is to assess the predictability of droughts in Africa. We assess the appropriateness of the historical WRSI bench- marks set by ARC members compared to the observed WRSI values for different regions. We conclude that the benchmarks are broadly sensible. We then compare a number of linear time series models based on their ability to fit and forecast the WRSI time series. We conclude that sim- pler models like Simple Moving Average and Moving Median are more appropriate than more sophisticated models containing trends and sea- sonality like Holt Winter and TBATS. We also investigate the use of the SARIMA and TBATS models to forecast the seasonal patterns observed in rainfall data and conclude that both models can generate structured forecasts that reflect seasonal variability. The statistical evidence how- ever favoured TBATS over SARIMA. Attempts to measure the influence of the El Nin ̃o-Southern Oscillation on rainfall levels are inconclusive for the areas studied. Finally we perform a simple application of univariate Extreme Value Theory to rainfall data and conclude that further inves- tigation is necessary to understand how the catastrophic famine that affected Ethiopia in the early 1980’s would be reflected in the data if a similar event were to reoccur today

Improved diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 by using nucleoprotein and spike protein fragment 2 in quantitative dual ELISA tests

The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), is the causative agent of the 2020 worldwide coronavirus pandemic. Antibody testing is useful for diagnosing historic infections of a disease in a population. These tests are also a helpful epidemiological tool for predicting how the virus spreads in a community, relating antibody levels to immunity and for assessing herd immunity. In the present study, SARS-CoV-2 viral proteins were recombinantly produced and used to analyse serum from individuals previously exposed, or not, to SARS-CoV-2. The nucleocapsid (Npro) and spike subunit 2 (S2Frag) proteins were identified as highly immunogenic, although responses to the former were generally greater. These two proteins were used to develop two quantitative enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) that when used in combination resulted in a highly reliable diagnostic test. Npro and S2Frag-ELISAs could detect at least 10% more true positive coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) cases than the commercially available ARCHITECT test (Abbott). Moreover, our quantitative ELISAs also show that specific antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 proteins tend to wane rapidly even in patients who had developed severe disease. As antibody tests complement COVID-19 diagnosis and determine population-level surveillance during this pandemic, the alternative diagnostic we present in this study could play a role in controlling the spread of the virus

Diversity of Bifidobacteria within the Infant Gut Microbiota

Background The human gastrointestinal tract (GIT) represents one of the most densely populated microbial ecosystems studied to date. Although this microbial consortium has been recognized to have a crucial impact on human health, its precise composition is still subject to intense investigation. Among the GIT microbiota, bifidobacteria represent an important commensal group, being among the first microbial colonizers of the gut. However, the prevalence and diversity of members of the genus Bifidobacterium in the infant intestinal microbiota has not yet been fully characterized, while some inconsistencies exist in literature regarding the abundance of this genus. Methods/Principal Findings In the current report, we assessed the complexity of the infant intestinal bifidobacterial population by analysis of pyrosequencing data of PCR amplicons derived from two hypervariable regions of the 16 S rRNA gene. Eleven faecal samples were collected from healthy infants of different geographical origins (Italy, Spain or Ireland), feeding type (breast milk or formula) and mode of delivery (vaginal or caesarean delivery), while in four cases, faecal samples of corresponding mothers were also analyzed. Conclusions In contrast to several previously published culture-independent studies, our analysis revealed a predominance of bifidobacteria in the infant gut as well as a profile of co-occurrence of bifidobacterial species in the infant’s intestine

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic