A Survival Analysis of Australian Equity Mutual Funds

Determining which types of mutual (or managed) investment funds are good financial investments is complicated by potential surbivorship biases. This project adds to a small recent international literature on the patterns and determinants of mutual fund survivorship. We use statistical techniques for survival data that are rarely applied in finance. Of specific interest is the hazard rate of fund closure, which gives the variation over time in the conditional probability of fund closure given fund survival to date. For a sample of 251 retail investment funds in Australia from 1980 to 1999 we identify a hump-shaped hazard function that reaches its maximum after about five or six years, a pattern similar to the UK findings of Lunde, Timmermann and Blake (1999). We also consider the impact of monthly and annual fund performance (gross and relative to a market benchmark). Returns relative to the benckmark are much more important than gross returns, with hgiher relative returns associated with lower hazard of fund closure. There appears to be an asymmetric response to performance, with positive shocks having a larger impact on the hazard rate than negative shocks.mutual funds; survivorship bias; duration analysis; cox regression

Optimal Capacity Decisions in a Developing Fishery

The problem of estimating optimal fishing capacity for a developing fishery is discussed, using the methods of Bayesian decision analysis. The results obtained indicate that quite good decisions can often be made on the basis of limited prior information as to fish stock productivity, particularly if a conservative approach allowing for subsequent increases in capacity is employed.Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

An economic evaluation of the potential for distributed energy in Australia

Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) recently completed a major study investigating the value of distributed energy (DE; collectively demand management, energy efficiency and distributed generation) technologies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from Australia’s energy sector (CSIRO, 2009). This comprehensive report covered potential economic, environmental, technical, social, policy and regulatory impacts that could result from the wide scale adoption of these technologies. In this paper we highlight the economic findings from the study. Partial Equilibrium modeling of the stationary and transport sectors found that Australia could achieve a present value welfare gain of around $130 billion when operating under a 450 ppm carbon reduction trajectory through to 2050. Modeling also suggests that reduced volatility in the spot market could decrease average prices by up to 12% in 2030 and 65% in 2050 by using local resources to better cater for an evolving supply-demand imbalance. Further modeling suggests that even a small amount of distributed generation located within a distribution network has the potential to significantly alter electricity prices by changing the merit order of dispatch in an electricity spot market. Changes to the dispatch relative to a base case can have both positive and negative effects on network losses.Distributed energy; Economic modeling; Carbon price; Electricity markets

Road construction over voids caused by active gypsum dissolution, with an example from Ripon, North Yorkshire, England

Sudden subsidence problems, caused by gypsum karst developed in the Permian sequence of Northern England, have caused difficult conditions for road construction. This paper presents the design strategy, mathematical modelling and parameters used to construct roads to cope with such difficult ground conditions. Because it is impossible to locate all the subsidence features along a route, the road design has to cope with potential future problems. This is achieved by using reinforcementcomprising layers of tensile membrane material within the earth embankment. This will prevent dangerous catastrophic collapse and maintain serviceability, but will allow sagging to show where major problems exist. The modelling showed that for the situation at Ripon, two layers of tensile membrane material within the earth embankment fulfilled the design brief for the road

The detection of flaws in austenitic welds using the decomposition of the time reversal operator

The non-destructive testing of austenitic welds using ultrasound plays an important role in the assessment of the structural integrity of safety critical structures. The internal microstructure of these welds is highly scattering and can lead to the obscuration of defects when investigated by traditional imaging algorithms. This paper proposes an alternative objective method for the detection of flaws embedded in austenitic welds based on the singular value decomposition of the time-frequency domain response matrices. The distribution of the singular values is examined in the cases where a flaw exists and where there is no flaw present. A lower threshold on the singular values, specific to austenitic welds, is derived which, when exceeded, indicates the presence of a flaw. The detection criterion is successfully implemented on both synthetic and experimental data. The datasets arising from welds containing a flaw, are further interrogated using the decomposition of the time reversal operator (DORT) method and the total focussing method (TFM) and it is shown that images constructed via the DORT algorithm typically exhibit a higher signal to noise ratio than those constructed by the TFM algorithm

Ανάπτυξη και χαρακτηρισμός ικριωμάτων νανοϋδροξυαπατίτη με την τεχνική της λυοφιλίωσης

Post-trawl survival (PTS) is an important metric used in determining the ecological risk posed by prawn (shrimp) trawling on discarded elasmobranchs. Despite this, PTS of elasmobranchs is poorly understood. The present study quantified the PTS of two small batoids caught incidentally by prawn trawlers in southern Queensland, Australia, namely the common stingaree (Trygonoptera testacea) and the eastern shovelnose ray (Aptychotrema rostrata). Field studies using on-board tanks revealed that A. rostrata were more resilient to trawl capture and release than T. testacea. For both species, survival was found to increase with size, whereas increasing time on deck resulted in lower survival. Female T. testacea were found to be more resilient than males, and increased tow duration resulted in lower survival for A. rostrata. The mean (+/- s.e.m.) PTS for female and male T. testacea was 33.5 +/- 6.0 and 17.3 +/- 5.5% respectively, compared with a mean PTS for A. rostrata of 86.8 +/- 3.2%. The survival estimates derived in the present study provide an insight into the effects of trawling on these species and will improve their ecological risk assessment and management

Critical care admission trends and outcomes in individuals with bronchiectasis in the UK

Background: There are limited data on admission trends and outcomes of individuals with bronchiectasis admitted to intensive care (ICU). Using national critical care data, we analysed admissions to ICU and estimated outcomes in terms of mortality in individuals with bronchiectasis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) admitted to ICU. Methods: Using data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, admissions from bronchiectasis and COPD from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013 were extracted. Crude admission rates for bronchiectasis and COPD were calculated and Poisson regression was used to estimate unadjusted annual admission rate ratios. We investigated changes to length of stay on ICU, ICU mortality and in-hospital mortality during the study period. We also compared mortality rates in people with bronchiectasis and COPD aged 70 or above. Results: We found an annual increase of 8% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 2-15) in the number of ICU admissions from bronchiectasis, whilst the yearly increase in ICU admissions from COPD was 1% (95% CI 0.3-2). ICU and in-hospital mortality was higher in individuals with bronchiectasis compared with those with COPD, especially in people aged 70 years or above. Conclusion: Admission to ICU in people with bronchiectasis are uncommon, but are increasing in frequency over time, and carries a substantial mortality rate. This needs to be considered allocating health care resources and planning respiratory services

Sacred communities: contestations and connections

This article discusses a project whose purpose was to review existing qualitative and quantitative data from two separate studies to provide new insights about everyday religion and belonging. Researchers engaged in knowledge exchange and dialogue with new and former research participants, with other researchers involved in similar research, and with wider academic networks beyond the core disciplines represented here, principally anthropology and geography. Key concluding themes related to the ambivalent nature of ‘faith’, connections over place and time, and the contested nature of community. Implicit in terms like ‘faith’, ‘community’, and ‘life course’ are larger interwoven narratives of space, time, place, corporeality, and emotion. The authors found that understanding how places, communities, and faiths differ and intersect requires an understanding of social relatedness and boundaries

Developing an active play resource for a range of Australian early childhood settings : formative findings and recommendations

Physical activity habits are established in early childhood. Increasing a child's fundamental movement skill confidence and competence may result in a trajectory of increased physical activity and a lower risk of becoming overweight. The evidence upon which the promotion of physical activity in early childhood settings is based is tenuous. This study employed formative research methods (gaining the perspective of people both within and outside the target community) to identify current physical activity practices, barriers to physical activity and methods by which effective professional development could be delivered, in three early childhood setting types: family day care, long day care and kindergartens. In these settings, lack of time, finances and motivation were the key barriers to implementing physical activity programs. Recommendations for a physical activity program and associated professional development resources were developed to overcome these barriers