Sedimentation ponds and their operation in stormwater systems

The efficacy of sedimentation ponds as a means of sediment and heavy metal remediation is investigated, with particular regard to the physical and chemical conditions that may lead to remobilisation of metals from the sedimentsThesis (M.Eng.Sc.) -- University of Adelaide, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 200

Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions to Promote Fruit and Vegetable Consumption

Background: Fruits and vegetables are an essential part of the human diet, but many people do not consume the recommended serves to prevent cardiovascular disease and cancer. In this research, we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions to promote fruit and vegetable consumption to determine which interventions are good value for money, and by how much current strategies can reduce the population disease burden

The potential health impact of restricting less-healthy food and beverage advertising on UK television between 05.30 and 21.00 hours: A modelling study

Funder: National Institute for Health Research; funder-id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000272Funder: British AcademyBackground: Restrictions on the advertising of less-healthy foods and beverages is seen as one measure to tackle childhood obesity and is under active consideration by the UK government. Whilst evidence increasingly links this advertising to excess calorie intake, understanding of the potential impact of advertising restrictions on population health is limited. Methods and findings: We used a proportional multi-state life table model to estimate the health impact of prohibiting the advertising of food and beverages high in fat, sugar, and salt (HFSS) from 05.30 hours to 21.00 hours (5:30 AM to 9:00 PM) on television in the UK. We used the following data to parameterise the model: children’s exposure to HFSS advertising from AC Nielsen and Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board (2015); effect of less-healthy food advertising on acute caloric intake in children from a published meta-analysis; population numbers and all-cause mortality rates from the Human Mortality Database for the UK (2015); body mass index distribution from the Health Survey for England (2016); disability weights for estimating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease Study; and healthcare costs from NHS England programme budgeting data. The main outcome measures were change in the percentage of the children (aged 5–17 years) with obesity defined using the International Obesity Task Force cut-points, and change in health status (DALYs). Monte Carlo analyses was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We estimate that if all HFSS advertising between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours was withdrawn, UK children (n = 13,729,000), would see on average 1.5 fewer HFSS adverts per day and decrease caloric intake by 9.1 kcal (95% UI 0.5–17.7 kcal), which would reduce the number of children (aged 5–17 years) with obesity by 4.6% (95% UI 1.4%–9.5%) and with overweight (including obesity) by 3.6% (95% UI 1.1%–7.4%) This is equivalent to 40,000 (95% UI 12,000–81,000) fewer UK children with obesity, and 120,000 (95% UI 34,000–240,000) fewer with overweight. For children alive in 2015 (n = 13,729,000), this would avert 240,000 (95% UI 65,000–530,000) DALYs across their lifetime (i.e., followed from 2015 through to death), and result in a health-related net monetary benefit of £7.4 billion (95% UI £2.0 billion–£16 billion) to society. Under a scenario where all HFSS advertising is displaced to after 21.00 hours, rather than withdrawn, we estimate that the benefits would be reduced by around two-thirds. This is a modelling study and subject to uncertainty; we cannot fully and accurately account for all of the factors that would affect the impact of this policy if implemented. Whilst randomised trials show that children exposed to less-healthy food advertising consume more calories, there is uncertainty about the nature of the dose–response relationship between HFSS advertising and calorie intake. Conclusions: Our results show that HFSS television advertising restrictions between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours in the UK could make a meaningful contribution to reducing childhood obesity. We estimate that the impact on childhood obesity of this policy may be reduced by around two-thirds if adverts are displaced to after 21.00 hours rather than being withdrawn

Projected health and economic impacts of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Germany: A cross-validation modelling study.

BackgroundTaxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been implemented globally to reduce the burden of cardiometabolic diseases by disincentivizing consumption through increased prices (e.g., 1 peso/litre tax in Mexico) or incentivizing industry reformulation to reduce SSB sugar content (e.g., tiered structure of the United Kingdom [UK] Soft Drinks Industry Levy [SDIL]). In Germany, where no tax on SSBs is enacted, the health and economic impact of SSB taxation using the experience from internationally implemented tax designs has not been evaluated. The objective of this study was to estimate the health and economic impact of national SSBs taxation scenarios in Germany.Methods and findingsIn this modelling study, we evaluated a 20% ad valorem SSB tax with/without taxation of fruit juice (based on implemented SSB taxes and recommendations) and a tiered tax (based on the UK SDIL) in the German adult population aged 30 to 90 years from 2023 to 2043. We developed a microsimulation model (IMPACTNCD Germany) that captures the demographics, risk factor profile and epidemiology of type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in the German population using the best available evidence and national data. For each scenario, we estimated changes in sugar consumption and associated weight change. Resulting cases of cardiometabolic disease prevented/postponed and related quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and economic impacts from healthcare (medical costs) and societal (medical, patient time, and productivity costs) perspectives were estimated using national cost and health utility data. Additionally, we assessed structural uncertainty regarding direct, body mass index (BMI)-independent cardiometabolic effects of SSBs and cross-validated results with an independently developed cohort model (PRIMEtime). We found that SSB taxation could reduce sugar intake in the German adult population by 1 g/day (95%-uncertainty interval [0.05, 1.65]) for a 20% ad valorem tax on SSBs leading to reduced consumption through increased prices (pass-through of 82%) and 2.34 g/day (95%-UI [2.32, 2.36]) for a tiered tax on SSBs leading to 30% reduction in SSB sugar content via reformulation. Through reductions in obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD), 106,000 (95%-UI [57,200, 153,200]) QALYs could be gained with a 20% ad valorem tax and 192,300 (95%-UI [130,100, 254,200]) QALYs with a tiered tax. Respectively, €9.6 billion (95%-UI [4.7, 15.3]) and €16.0 billion (95%-UI [8.1, 25.5]) costs could be saved from a societal perspective over 20 years. Impacts of the 20% ad valorem tax were larger when additionally taxing fruit juice (252,400 QALYs gained, 95%-UI [176,700, 325,800]; €11.8 billion costs saved, 95%-UI [€6.7, €17.9]), but impacts of all scenarios were reduced when excluding direct health effects of SSBs. Cross-validation with PRIMEtime showed similar results. Limitations include remaining uncertainties in the economic and epidemiological evidence and a lack of product-level data.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that SSB taxation in Germany could help to reduce the national burden of noncommunicable diseases and save a substantial amount of societal costs. A tiered tax designed to incentivize reformulation of SSBs towards less sugar might have a larger population-level health and economic impact than an ad valorem tax that incentivizes consumer behaviour change only through increased prices

Diet and Physical Activity for the Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Policy Review

Background: Diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are increasing rapidly in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) and constitute a leading cause of mortality. Although a call for global action has been resonating for years, the progress in national policy development in LMICs has not been assessed. This review of strategies to prevent NCDs in LMICs provides a benchmark against which policy response can be tracked over time. Methods and Findings: We reviewed how government policies in LMICs outline actions that address salt consumption, fat consumption, fruit and vegetable intake, or physical activity. A structured content analysis of national nutrition, NCDs, and health policies published between 1 January 2004 and 1 January 2013 by 140 LMIC members of the World Health Organization (WHO) was carried out. We assessed availability of policies in 83% (116/140) of the countries. NCD strategies were found in 47% (54/116) of LMICs reviewed, but only a minority proposed actions to promote healthier diets and physical activity. The coverage of policies that specifically targeted at least one of the risk factors reviewed was lower in Africa, Europe, the Americas, and the Eastern Mediterranean compared to the other two World Health Organization regions, South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Of the countries reviewed, only 12% (14/116) proposed a policy that addressed all four risk factors, and 25% (29/116) addressed only one of the risk factors reviewed. Strategies targeting the private sector were less frequently encountered than strategies targeting the general public or policy makers. Conclusions: This review indicates the disconnection between the burden of NCDs and national policy responses in LMICs. Policy makers urgently need to develop comprehensive and multi-stakeholder policies to improve dietary quality and physical activity

Which interventions offer best value for money in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease?

BackgroundDespite many decades of declining mortality rates in the Western world, cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide. In this research we evaluate the optimal mix of lifestyle, pharmaceutical and population-wide interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.Methods and FindingsIn a discrete time Markov model we simulate the ischaemic heart disease and stroke outcomes and cost impacts of intervention over the lifetime of all Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Best value for money is achieved by mandating moderate limits on salt in the manufacture of bread, margarine and cereal. A combination of diuretic, calcium channel blocker, ACE inhibitor and low-cost statin, for everyone with at least 5% five-year risk of cardiovascular disease, is also cost-effective, but lifestyle interventions aiming to change risky dietary and exercise behaviours are extremely poor value for money and have little population health benefit.ConclusionsThere is huge potential for improving efficiency in cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia. A tougher approach from Government to mandating limits on salt in processed foods and reducing excessive statin prices, and a shift away from lifestyle counselling to more efficient absolute risk-based prescription of preventive drugs, could cut health care costs while improving population health.<br /

Improving the cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia : a modelling study

Background : Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Like many countries, Australia is currently changing its guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention from drug treatment for everyone with \u27high blood pressure\u27 or \u27high cholesterol\u27, to prevention based on a patient\u27s absolute risk. In this research, we model cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention with blood pressure and lipid drugs in Australia under three different scenarios: (1) the true current practice in Australia; (2) prevention as intended under the current guidelines; and (3) prevention according to proposed absolute risk levels. We consider the implications of changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention, for the health of the Australian people and for Government health sector expenditure over the long term. Methods : We evaluate cost-effectiveness of statins, diuretics, ACE inhibitors, calcium channel blockers and beta-blockers, for Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Epidemiological changes and health care costs are simulated by age and sex in a discrete time Markov model, to determine total impacts on population health and health sector costs over the lifetime, from which we derive cost-effectiveness ratios in 2008 Australian dollars per quality-adjusted life year. Results : Cardiovascular disease prevention based on absolute risk is more cost-effective than prevention under the current guidelines based on single risk factor thresholds, and is more cost-effective than the current practice, which does not follow current clinical guidelines. Recommending blood pressure-lowering drugs to everyone with at least 5% absolute risk and statin drugs to everyone with at least 10% absolute risk, can achieve current levels of population health, while saving $5.4 billion for the Australian Government over the lifetime of the population. But savings could be as high as$7.1 billion if Australia could match the cheaper price of statin drugs in New Zealand. Conclusions : Changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention is highly recommended for reducing health sector spending, but the Australian Government must also consider measures to reduce the cost of statin drugs, over and above the legislated price cuts of November 2010. <br /

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: A comparative risk assessment

Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd