Mathematical Arguments in Favor of Risk in Andy Weir\u27s The Martian

In Andy Weir’s novel The Martian, the characters encounter high-stakes, life-or-death situations, in which they must make choices based on their assessment of risk and likely outcomes. They have different reactions to risky situations, based on their approaches to assessing risk and their perspectives on the stakes involved. In this paper, we examine the ways that characters in The Martian intuitively assess risk and compare them to mathematical analysis of the situations in the book

A 1.1 to 1.9 GHz SETI Survey of the Kepler Field: I. A Search for Narrow-band Emission from Select Targets

We present a targeted search for narrow-band (< 5 Hz) drifting sinusoidal radio emission from 86 stars in the Kepler field hosting confirmed or candidate exoplanets. Radio emission less than 5 Hz in spectral extent is currently known to only arise from artificial sources. The stars searched were chosen based on the properties of their putative exoplanets, including stars hosting candidates with 380 K > T_eq > 230 K, stars with 5 or more detected candidates or stars with a super-Earth (R_p 50 day orbit. Baseband voltage data across the entire band between 1.1 and 1.9 GHz were recorded at the Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope between Feb--Apr 2011 and subsequently searched offline. No signals of extraterrestrial origin were found. We estimate that fewer than ~1% of transiting exoplanet systems host technological civilizations that are radio loud in narrow-band emission between 1-2 GHz at an equivalent isotropically radiated power (EIRP) of ~1.5 x 10^21 erg s^-1, approximately eight times the peak EIRP of the Arecibo Planetary Radar, and we limit the the number of 1-2 GHz narrow-band-radio-loud Kardashev type II civilizations in the Milky Way to be < 10^-6 M_solar^-1. Here we describe our observations, data reduction procedures and results.Comment: Accepted to the Astrophysical Journa

Core sample extractor

The problem of retrieving and storing core samples from a hole drilled on the lunar surface is addressed. The total depth of the hole in question is 50 meters with a maximum diameter of 100 millimeters. The core sample itself has a diameter of 60 millimeters and will be two meters in length. It is therefore necessary to retrieve and store 25 core samples per hole. The design utilizes a control system that will stop the mechanism at a certain depth, a cam-linkage system that will fracture the core, and a storage system that will save and catalogue the cores to be extracted. The Rod Changer and Storage Design Group will provide the necessary tooling to get into the hole as well as to the core. The mechanical design for the cam-linkage system as well as the conceptual design of the storage device are described

New SETI Sky Surveys for Radio Pulses

Berkeley conducts 7 SETI programs at IR, visible and radio wavelengths. Here we review two of the newest efforts, Astropulse and Fly's Eye. A variety of possible sources of microsecond to millisecond radio pulses have been suggested in the last several decades, among them such exotic events as evaporating primordial black holes, hyper-flares from neutron stars, emissions from cosmic strings or perhaps extraterrestrial civilizations, but to-date few searches have been conducted capable of detecting them. We are carrying out two searches in hopes of finding and characterizing these mu-s to ms time scale dispersed radio pulses. These two observing programs are orthogonal in search space; the Allen Telescope Array's (ATA) "Fly's Eye" experiment observes a 100 square degree field by pointing each 6m ATA antenna in a different direction; by contrast, the Astropulse sky survey at Arecibo is extremely sensitive but has 1/3,000 of the instantaneous sky coverage. Astropulse's multibeam data is transferred via the internet to the computers of millions of volunteers. These computers perform a coherent de-dispersion analysis faster than the fastest available supercomputers and allow us to resolve pulses as short as 400 ns. Overall, the Astropulse survey will be 30 times more sensitive than the best previous searches. Analysis of results from Astropulse is at a very early stage. The Fly's Eye was successfully installed at the ATA in December of 2007, and to-date approximately 450 hours of observation has been performed. We have detected three pulsars and six giant pulses from the Crab pulsar in our diagnostic pointing data. We have not yet detected any other convincing bursts of astronomical origin in our survey data. (Abridged)Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, Accepted to Acta Astronautica "Special Issue: Life Signatures

Early metabolic markers identify potential targets for the prevention of type 2 diabetes

Aims/hypothesis The aims of this study were to evaluate systematically the predictive power of comprehensive metabolomics profiles in predicting the future risk of type 2 diabetes, and to identify a panel of the most predictive metabolic markers. Methods We applied an unbiased systems medicine approach to mine metabolite combinations that provide added value in predicting the future incidence of type 2 diabetes beyond known risk factors. We performed mass spectrometry-based targeted, as well as global untargeted, metabolomics, measuring a total of 568 metabolites, in a Finnish cohort of 543 nondiabetic individuals from the Botnia Prospective Study, which included 146 individuals who progressed to type 2 diabetes by the end of a 10 year follow-up period. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess statistical associations, and regularised least-squares modelling was used to perform machine learning-based risk classification and marker selection. The predictive performance of the machine learning models and marker panels was evaluated using repeated nested cross-validation, and replicated in an independent French cohort of 1044 individuals including 231 participants who progressed to type 2 diabetes during a 9 year follow-up period in the DESIR (Data from an Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome) study. Results Nine metabolites were negatively associated (potentially protective) and 25 were positively associated with progression to type 2 diabetes. Machine learning models based on the entire metabolome predicted progression to type 2 diabetes (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC = 0.77) significantly better than the reference model based on clinical risk factors alone (AUC = 0.68; DeLong's p = 0.0009). The panel of metabolic markers selected by the machine learning-based feature selection also significantly improved the predictive performance over the reference model (AUC = 0.78; p = 0.00019; integrated discrimination improvement, IDI = 66.7%). This approach identified novel predictive biomarkers, such as alpha-tocopherol, bradykinin hydroxyproline, X-12063 and X-13435, which showed added value in predicting progression to type 2 diabetes when combined with known biomarkers such as glucose, mannose and alpha-hydroxybutyrate and routinely used clinical risk factors. Conclusions/interpretation This study provides a panel of novel metabolic markers for future efforts aimed at the prevention of type 2 diabetes.Peer reviewe

Current and Nascent SETI Instruments

Here we describe our ongoing efforts to develop high-performance and sensitive instrumentation for use in the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence (SETI). These efforts include our recently deployed Search for Extraterrestrial Emissions from Nearby Developed Intelligent Populations Spectrometer (SERENDIP V.v) and two instruments currently under development; the Heterogeneous Radio SETI Spectrometer (HRSS) for SETI observations in the radio spectrum and the Optical SETI Fast Photometer (OSFP) for SETI observations in the optical band. We will discuss the basic SERENDIP V.v instrument design and initial analysis methodology, along with instrument architectures and observation strategies for OSFP and HRSS. In addition, we will demonstrate how these instruments may be built using low-cost, modular components and programmed and operated by students using common languages, e.g. ANSI C.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, Original version appears as Chapter 2 in "The Proceedings of SETI Sessions at the 2010 Astrobiology Science Conference: Communication with Extraterrestrial Intelligence (CETI)," Douglas A. Vakoch, Edito