Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures.

Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100

European extreme precipitation: The effects of spatio-temporal resolution of the data

Abstract European wintertime precipitation is known to be skilfully estimated in reanalysis data and model simulations since it is highly correlated with large scale, low frequency modes of variability, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since the NAO is mainly a wintertime mode of variability, the skill of estimating precipitation becomes more limited in other seasons, most importantly in summer, when precipitation is mainly a result of mesoscale convection. In this study, we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to show the added value of using a high resolution, convection-permitting model to estimate precipitation extremes. The results show that WRF succeeds to correct the failure of ERA-Interim reanalysis to capture the positive trends over the last decades of European extreme precipitation in summer and transition seasons, that are indicated by observational data (E-OBS) and previous literature. Partial improvements are evident using ERA5 reanalysis, specifically in Spring and in Autumn. In winter, changes in European extreme precipitation over the last decades are dominated by variations in the NAO index, and are well reproduced both in reanalysis data and in the high resolution WRF downscaling

High-latitude precipitation as a driver of multicentennial variability of the AMOC in a climate model of intermediate complexity

Centennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the absence of external forcing has been identified in several climate models, but proposed mechanisms differ considerably. Therefore, better understanding of processes governing AMOC variability at these timescales is needed. Here, we analyze numerical simulations with PlaSim-LSG, an Earth System Model Intermediate Complexity (EMIC), which exhibits strong multicentennial oscillations of AMOC strength under constant pre-industrial boundary conditions. We identify a novel mechanism in which these oscillations are driven by salinity anomalies from the Arctic Ocean, which can be attributed to changes in high-latitude precipitation. We further corroborate our findings by conducting a set of millennial-length sensitivity experiments, and we interpret the mechanism by formulating a three-box model which qualitatively reproduces regular oscillations of the AMOC. While PlaSim-LSG lacks complexity compared to state-of-the-art models, our results reveal that precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) change in the Arctic is a physically plausible driver of centennial-scale AMOC variability. We discuss how this mechanism might be most relevant in climate states warmer than the present-day, raising questions about the state-dependence of multicentennial AMOC variability

Stirring and mixing : 1999 Program of Summer Study in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

The central theme of the 1999 GFD Program was the stirring, transport, reaction and mixing of passive and active tracers in turbulent, stratified, rotating fluids. The problem of mixing in fluids has applications in areas ranging from oceanography to engineering and astrophysics. In geophysical settings, mixing spans and unites a broad range of scales -- from micrometers to megameters. The mixing of passive tracers is of fundamental importance in environmental and industrial problems, such as pollution, and in determining the large-scale heat and salt balance of the worlds oceans. The transport of active tracers, on the other hand, such as vorticity, plays a key role in the turbulence that occurs in most geophysical and astrophysical fluids. William R. Young (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) gave a series of principal lectures, the notes of which as taken by the fellows, appear in this volume. Report of the projects of the student fellows makes up the second half of this volume.Funding was provided by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. OCE-9810647 and the Office of Naval Research under Grant No. NOO0l4-97-1-0934

Horizontal advection, diffusion, and plankton spectra at the sea surface

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (2009): C02001, doi:10.1029/2007JC004671.Plankton patchiness is ubiquitous in the oceans, and various physical and biological processes have been proposed as its generating mechanisms. However, a coherent statement on the problem is missing, because of both a small number of suitable observations and an incomplete understanding of the properties of reactive tracers in turbulent media. It has been suggested that horizontal advection may be the dominant process behind the observed distributions of phytoplankton and zooplankton, acting to mix tracers with longer reaction times (Rt) down to smaller scales. Conversely, the relative distributions of sea surface temperature and phytoplankton has been attributed to small-scale upwelling, where tracers with longer Rt are able to homogenize more than those with shorter reaction times. Neither of the above mechanisms can explain simultaneously the (relative) spectral slopes of temperature, phytoplankton, and zooplankton. Here, with a simple advection model and a large suite of numerical experiments, we concentrate on some of the physical processes influencing the relative distributions of tracers at the ocean surface, and we investigate (1) the impact of the spatial scale of tracer supply, (2) the role played by coherent eddies on the distribution of tracers with different Rt, and (3) the role of diffusion (so far neglected). We show that diffusion determines the distribution of temperature, regardless of the nature of the forcing. We also find that coherent structures together with differential diffusion of tracers with different Rt impact the tracer distributions. This may help in understanding the highly variable nature of observed plankton spectra.This work was initiated at WHOI during the summer of 2006, while S.C. was a summer student fellow, partially funded by the NSF. A.B. is funded by NSF–OCE 0751775 and NSF–OCE 0815280, and C.P. is funded by NSF–PHY 0551164

La dinamica del clima nell’ultimo ciclo glaciale-interglaciale

Attraverso questo primo incontro, il Gruppo di Lavoro Dinamica del paleoclima del CNR intende creare ed intensificare la rete tra i ricercatori italiani che si occupano di paleoclima, favorire la collaborazione tra la comunità paleoclimatica e di modellistica climatica ed individuare grandi sfide e temi di ricerca comuni per promuovere la partecipazione congiunta a programmi di ricerca nazionali ed internazionali

Effects of a Wind-Driven Gyre on Thermohaline Circulation Variability

A simplified model is used to study the possible effects of the horizontal upper-ocean wind-driven circulation (WDC) on the variability of the overturning meridional circulation driven by buoyancy fluxes. It is found that the added interaction with the WDC adds interesting new classes of variability. First, self-sustained variability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) becomes possible, on time scales of interdecades to a few centuries. Furthermore, these oscillations may be either small amplitude or large amplitude and either periodic or chaotic, depending on the amplitude of the freshwater forcing and on the strength of the WDC. Even a relatively weak WDC changes the well-known stability properties of the THC that are seen in numerous models of the THC alone. The variability modes found here may account for similar modes of variability observed in GCM studies.Earth and Planetary Science

Statistical Parameterization of Heterogeneous Oceanic Convection

A statistical convective adjustment scheme is proposed that attempts to account for the effects of mesoscale and submesoscale variability of temperature and salinity typically observed in the oceanic convective regions. Temperature and salinity in each model grid box are defined in terms of their mean, variance, and mutual correlations. Subgrid-scale instabilities lead to partial mixing between different layers in the water column. This allows for a smooth transition between the only two states (convection on and convection off) allowed in standard convective adjustment schemes. The advantage of the statistical parameterization is that possible instabilities associated with the sharp transition between the two states, which are known to occasionally affect the large-scale model solution, are eliminated. The procedure also predicts the generation of correlations between temperature and salinity and the presence of convectively induced upgradient fluxes that have been obtained in numerical simulations of heterogeneous convection and that cannot be represented by standard convective adjustment schemes.Earth and Planetary Science