Three-dimensional model study of the Arctic ozone loss in 2002/2003 and comparison with 1999/2000 and 2003/2004

We have used the SLIMCAT 3-D off-line chemical transport model (CTM) to quantify the Arctic chemical ozone loss in the year 2002/2003 and compare it with similar calculations for the winters 1999/2000 and 2003/2004. Recent changes to the CTM have improved the model's ability to reproduce polar chemical and dynamical processes. The updated CTM uses σ-θ as a vertical coordinate which allows it to extend down to the surface. The CTM has a detailed stratospheric chemistry scheme and now includes a simple NAT-based denitrification scheme in the stratosphere. In the model runs presented here the model was forced by ECMWF ERA40 and operational analyses. The model used 24 levels extending from the surface to ~55km and a horizontal resolution of either 7.5° x 7.5° or 2.8° x 2.8°. Two different radiation schemes, MIDRAD and the CCM scheme, were used to diagnose the vertical motion in the stratosphere. Based on tracer observations from balloons and aircraft, the more sophisticated CCM scheme gives a better representation of the vertical transport in this model which includes the troposphere. The higher resolution model generally produces larger chemical O3 depletion, which agrees better with observations. The CTM results show that very early chemical ozone loss occurred in December 2002 due to extremely low temperatures and early chlorine activation in the lower stratosphere. Thus, chemical loss in this winter started earlier than in the other two winters studied here. In 2002/2003 the local polar ozone loss in the lower stratosphere was ~40% before the stratospheric final warming. Larger ozone loss occurred in the cold year 1999/2000 which had a persistently cold and stable vortex during most of the winter. For this winter the current model, at a resolution of 2.8° x 2.8°, can reproduce the observed loss of over 70% locally. In the warm and more disturbed winter 2003/2004 the chemical O3 loss was generally much smaller, except above 620K where large losses occurred due to a period of very low minimum temperatures at these altitudes

WTEC panel report on research submersibles and undersea technologies

This report covers research submersibles and related subsea technologies in Finland, France, Russia, Ukraine and the United Kingdom. Manned, teleoperated, and autonomous submersibles were of interest. The panel found that, in contrast to the United States, Europe is making substantial progress in cooperative and coordinated research in subsea technology, including the development of standards. France is a leader in autonomous vehicle technology. Because much less was known a priori about the technologies in Russia and Ukraine, there were more new findings in those countries than in those Western European nations visited. However, Russia and Ukraine have a sizeable (and currently underutilized) infrastructure in this field, including a highly educated and experienced manpower pool, impressive (in some cases unique) facilities for physical testing, extensive fleets of seagoing research vessels capable of long voyages, and state-of-the-art facilities for conducting oceanographic investigations. The panel visited newly-formed commercial companies associated with long-standing submersible R&D and production centers in Russia and Ukraine. So far, these new efforts are undercapitalized, and as such represent opportunities at very low cost for Western nations, as detailed in the site reports

Measurement in Economics and Social Science

The paper discusses measurement, primarily in economics, from both analytical and historical perspectives. The historical section traces the commitment to ordinalism on the part of economic theorists from the doctrinal disputes between classical economics and marginalism, through the struggle of orthodox economics against socialism down to the cold-war alliance between mathematical social science and anti-communist ideology. In economics the commitment to ordinalism led to the separation of theory from the quantitative measures that are computed in practice: price and quantity indexes, consumer surplus and real national product. The commitment to ordinality entered political science, via Arrow’s ‘impossibility theorem’, effectively merging it with economics, and ensuring its sterility. How can a field that has as its central result the impossibility of democracy contribute to the design of democratic institutions? The analytical part of the paper deals with the quantitative measures mentioned above. I begin with the conceptual clarification that what these measures try to achieve is a restoration of the money metric that is lost when prices are variable. I conclude that there is only one measure that can be embedded in a satisfactory economic theory, free from unreasonable restrictions. It is the Törnqvist index as an approximation to its theoretical counterpart the Divisia index. The statistical agencies have at various times produced different measures for real national product and its components, as well as related concepts. I argue that all of these are flawed and that a single deflator should be used for the aggregate and the components. Ideally this should be a chained Törnqvist price index defined on aggregate consumption. The social sciences are split. The economic approach is abstract, focused on the assumption of rational and informed behavior, and tends to the political right. The sociological approach is empirical, stresses the non-rational aspects of human behavior and tends to the political left. I argue that the split is due to the fact that the empirical and theoretical traditions were never joined in the social sciences as they were in the natural sciences. I also argue that measurement can potentially help in healing this split

Kinematics of the Circumgalactic Medium of a z=0.77z = 0.77 Galaxy from MgII Tomography

Galaxy evolution is thought to be driven in large part by the flow of gas between galaxies and the circumgalactic medium (CGM), a halo of metal-enriched gas extending out to $\gtrsim100$ kpc from each galaxy. Studying the spatial structure of the CGM holds promise for understanding these gas flow mechanisms; however, the common method using background quasar sightlines provides minimal spatial information. Recent works have shown the utility of extended background sources such as giant gravitationally lensed arcs. Using background lensed arcs from the CSWA 38 lens system, we continuously probed, at a resolution element of about 15 kpc$^2$, the spatial and kinematic distribution of MgII absorption in a star-forming galaxy at $z=0.77$ (stellar mass $\approx 10^{9.7}$ M$_\odot$, star formation rate $\approx 10$ M$_\odot$ yr$^{-1}$) at impact parameters $D=5-40$ kpc. Our results present an anisotropic, optically thick medium whose absorption strength decreases with increasing impact parameter, in agreement with the statistics towards quasars and other gravitational arcs. Furthermore, we detect low line-of-sight velocities ($v\approx-25-80$ km s$^{-1}$) and relatively high velocity dispersion ($\sigma\approx50\pm30$ km s$^{-1}$) in the MgII gas. These measures provide evidence of a mainly pressure-supported, metal-enriched diffuse gas recycling through the CGM rather than an active galactic outflow.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, 5 table

Ten questions concerning integrating smart buildings into the smart grid

Recent advances in information and communications technology (ICT) have initiated development of a smart electrical grid and smart buildings. Buildings consume a large portion of the total electricity production worldwide, and to fully develop a smart grid they must be integrated with that grid. Buildings can now be ‘prosumers’ on the grid (both producers and consumers), and the continued growth of distributed renewable energy generation is raising new challenges in terms of grid stability over various time scales. Buildings can contribute to grid stability by managing their overall electrical demand in response to current conditions. Facility managers must balance demand response requests by grid operators with energy needed to maintain smooth building operations. For example, maintaining thermal comfort within an occupied building requires energy and, thus an optimized solution balancing energy use with indoor environmental quality (adequate thermal comfort, lighting, etc.) is needed. Successful integration of buildings and their systems with the grid also requires interoperable data exchange. However, the adoption and integration of newer control and communication technologies into buildings can be problematic with older legacy HVAC and building control systems. Public policy and economic structures have not kept up with the technical developments that have given rise to the budding smart grid, and further developments are needed in both technical and non-technical areas

Terrestrial Ozone Depletion Due to a Milky Way Gamma-Ray Burst

Based on cosmological rates, it is probable that at least once in the last Gy the Earth has been irradiated by a gamma-ray burst in our Galaxy from within 2 kpc. Using a two-dimensional atmospheric model we have performed the first computation of the effects upon the Earth's atmosphere of one such impulsive event. A ten second burst delivering 100 kJ/m^2 to the Earth penetrates to the stratosphere and results in globally averaged ozone depletion of 35%, with depletion reaching 55% at some latitudes. Significant global depletion persists for over 5 years after the burst. This depletion would have dramatic implications for life since a 50% decrease in ozone column density results in approximately three times the normal UVB flux. Widespread extinctions are likely, based on extrapolation from UVB sensitivity of modern organisms. Additional effects include a shot of nitrate fertilizer and NO2 opacity in the visible providing a cooling perturbation to the climate over a similar timescale. These results lend support to the hypothesis that a GRB may have initiated the late Ordovician mass extinction (Melott et al. 2004).Comment: 4 color figures; Revised version to be published in Astrophysical Journal Letters. Moderate revisions, including more detail on atmospheric processes, on probable climactic and biogeochemical effects, an improved color scheme for graphics, and an animation of computed DNA damage leve

Combined Influences of Gm and HLA Phenotypes upon Multiple Sclerosis Susceptibility and Severity

In some Caucasian populations, multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility has been independently related to given alleles of HLA or Gm systems that respectively code for major histocompatibility complex class I and II antigens or immunoglobulin G heavy chains. Whether given combinations of alleles at both series of loci simultaneously influence MS susceptibility and/or severity was investigated by comparing 147 French MS patients and 226 geographically-matched healthy controls. The G2m(-23)/HLA-B35 phenotype and Glm(-1)/HLA-B7(-)/HLA-DR2 phenotype were respectively associated with significant protection against (relative risk = 0.05) and susceptibility to (relative risk = 4.3) MS. When considering MS severity, the presence of HLA-B7 antigen correlated with a more severe disease in Gm1/Gm3 heterozygous patients, but not in Gm3/Gm3 homozygous patients. Conversely, an HLA-B12-associated milder disease was restricted to Gm3/Gm3 homozygotes. These results demonstrate the combined influence on MS of genetic loci that are unlinked but immune response-associated. Combined Gm and HLA typing is very likely able to serve as a prognostic indicator in this disease

Calculating and visualizing the density of states for simple quantum mechanical systems

We present a graphical approach to understanding the degeneracy, density of states, and cumulative state number for some simple quantum systems. By taking advantage of basic computing operations, we define a straightforward procedure for determining the relationship between discrete quantum energy levels and the corresponding density of states and cumulative level number. The density of states for a particle in a rigid box of various shapes and dimensions is examined and graphed. It is seen that the dimension of the box, rather than its shape, is the most important feature. In addition, we look at the density of states for a multi-particle system of identical bosons built on the single-particle spectra of those boxes. A simple model is used to explain how the N-particle density of states arises from the single particle system it is based on