Using Non-Parametric Tests to Evaluate Traffic Forecasting Performance.

This paper proposes the use of a number of nonparametric comparison methods for evaluating traffic flow forecasting techniques. The advantage to these methods is that they are free of any distributional assumptions and can be legitimately used on small datasets. To demonstrate the applicability of these tests, a number of models for the forecasting of traffic flows are developed. The one-step-ahead forecasts produced are then assessed using nonparametric methods. Consideration is given as to whether a method is universally good or good at reproducing a particular aspect of the original series. That choice will be dictated, to a degree, by the user’s purpose for assessing traffic flow

Disease Outbreaks and Agricultural Trade: The Case of Potatoes

This study analyzed the impact of PVYn and potato wart disease outbreaks in PEI on the potato industry. These disease outbreaks resulted in the loss of the US seed export market to PEI producers. The effects of the disease outbreaks were mitigated through value-added processing. Price premiums for processed potatoes allowed PEI potato producers to abandon seed exports without incurring losses. Evidence is presented to suggest that other countries have also used this approach when export restrictions were placed on domestic agricultural industries. Policy response to the two disease outbreaks include: i) development of a zones policy that helped to reopen markets into the US; and ii) financial compensation to producers above the minimum levels required under the Seeds Act and Regulations. Implementation of the zones policy had beneficial impacts on the potato industry and is mirrored in other disease outbreaks. In contrast, compensation above minimum requirements may set a costly precedent for future disease outbreaks and may have caused moral hazard problems.disease, trade, potatoes, Canada, food, safety, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade,

Oh, You Million Dollar Doll

https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mmb-vp/5595/thumbnail.jp

Treatment of malaria restricted to laboratory-confirmed cases: a prospective cohort study in Ugandan children.

BACKGROUND: Presumptive treatment of malaria in febrile children is widely advocated in Africa. This may occur in the absence of diagnostic testing or even when diagnostic testing is performed but fails to detect malaria parasites. Such over-treatment of malaria has been tolerated in the era of inexpensive and safe monotherapy. However, with the introduction of new artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), presumptive treatment becomes economically and clinically less acceptable. METHODS: The risks and benefits of only treating children with microscopy confirmed malaria using a prospective cohort design were investigated. A representative sample of 601 children between one and 10 years of age were recruited from a census population in Kampala, Uganda and were followed for all of their health care needs in a study clinic. Standard microscopy was performed each time a child presented with a new episode of fever and antimalarial therapy given only if the blood smear was positive. RESULTS: Of 5,895 visits for new medical problems 40% were for febrile illnesses. Of the 2,359 episodes of new febrile illnesses, blood smears were initially reported as negative in 1,608 (68%) and no antimalarial therapy was given. Six of these initially negative smears were reported to be positive following quality control reading of all blood smears: four of these patients were subsequently diagnosed with uncomplicated malaria and two cleared their parasites without antimalarial treatment. Of the 1,602 new febrile illnesses in which the final blood smear reading was classified as negative, only 13 episodes (0.8%) were diagnosed with malaria in the subsequent 7 days. All 13 of these episodes of malaria were uncomplicated and were successfully treated. CONCLUSION: In this urban setting, malaria was responsible for only 32% of febrile episodes. Withholding antimalarial therapy in febrile children with negative blood smears was safe and saved over 1,600 antimalarial treatments in 601 children over an 18-month period. In the era of expensive ACT, directing resources towards improving diagnostic and treatment practices may provide a cost-effective measure for promoting rational use of antimalarial therapy

EFFECTIVENESS OF SQUIRREL FENCING FOR PROTECTING PECAN GROVES

During 1994, we tested the hypothesis that an energized, high-tensile wire fence prevents fox squirrels (Sciurus niger) from crossing into a pecan (Carya illinoensis) grove. When the fence was energized, we recorded fewer (P = 0.03) trips across the fence by squirrels (n - 19) and fewer (P \u3c 0.001) telemetry fix-points in the pecan grove. Effective squirrel fencing may offer wildlife managers an alternative method of damage prevention. Ecological ramifications to target and non-target species are discussed

Beatrice Fairfax, Tell Me What To Do!

https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mmb-vp/1079/thumbnail.jp

Salt Marshes As a Source Of Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter (Cdom) To Southern California Coastal Waters

To determine chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) sources in Southern California coastal waters, optical properties of a river outlet and adjacent tidally flushed salt marshes were monitored (dry season; June July 2001). Average absorption coefficients doubled at ebb vs. flood tides (4.8 +/- 1.5 vs. 2.1 +/- 0.9 m(-1); 300 nm), suggesting significant salt marsh CDOM inputs into coastal waters. Average spectral slopes were not statistically different for any sites or tides (0.010 +/- 0.002 nm(-1)), consistent with salt marsh CDOM dominating coastal waters. Three-dimensional fluorescence excitation-emission matrices (EEMs) at ebb tide showed contributions from terrestrial, protein, and marine humic-like peaks, suggesting production and output of these materials from the marsh. A marine humic signal at the river outlet during an offshore upwelling event indicated an additional sporadic nonmarsh marine humic-like source. EEMs of six common salt marsh plant leachates showed protein, terrestrial, and marine humic-like peaks. To estimate CDOM photodegradation in the marsh, fluorescence intensity decays from photobleaching experiments were fit to first-order kinetics. Most humic peaks degraded with a half-life of t(1/2) = 10-20 h, which overlaps the estimated residence time of water in the marshes (similar to 12 h). Most protein peaks were resistant to photodegradation, suggesting that the low levels of protein vs. humic-like material measured in natural waters was due to rapid bioutilization of proteinaceous material. The rapid photodegradation of plant leachate humic material and the low spectral slopes for the field sites suggest that marsh sediments would be an important source of CDOM

The Bacterial Chemotactic Response Reflects a Compromise Between Transient and Steady State Behavior

Swimming bacteria detect chemical gradients by performing temporal comparisons of recent measurements of chemical concentration. These comparisons are described quantitatively by the chemotactic response function, which we expect to optimize chemotactic behavioral performance. We identify two independent chemotactic performance criteria: in the short run, a favorable response function should move bacteria up chemoattractant gradients, while in the long run, bacteria should aggregate at peaks of chemoattractant concentration. Surprisingly, these two criteria conflict, so that when one performance criterion is most favorable, the other is unfavorable. Since both types of behavior are biologically relevant, we include both behaviors in a composite optimization that yields a response function that closely resembles experimental measurements. Our work suggests that the bacterial chemotactic response function can be derived from simple behavioral considerations, and sheds light on how the response function contributes to chemotactic performance.Comment: 19 pages, 5 figure

Parahepatospora carcini n. gen., n. sp., a parasite of invasive Carcinus maenas with intermediate features of sporogony between the Enterocytozoon clade and other microsporidia

Parahepatospora carcini n. gen. n. sp., is a novel microsporidian parasite discovered infecting the cytoplasm of epithelial cells of the hepatopancreas of a single Carcinus maenas specimen. The crab was sampled from within its invasive range in Atlantic Canada (Nova Scotia). Histopathology and transmission electron microscopy were used to show the development of the parasite within a simple interfacial membrane, culminating in the formation of unikaryotic spores with 5-6 turns of an isofilar polar filament. Formation of a multinucleate meront (>12 nuclei observed) preceded thickening and invagination of the plasmodial membrane, and in many cases, formation of spore extrusion precursors (polar filaments, anchoring disk) prior to complete separation of pre-sporoblasts from the sporogonial plasmodium. This developmental feature is intermediate between the Enterocytozoonidae (formation of spore extrusion precursors within the sporont plasmodium) and all other Microsporidia (formation of spore extrusion precursors after separation of sporont from the sporont plasmodium). SSU rRNA-based gene phylogenies place P. carcini within microsporidian Clade IV, between the Enterocytozoonidae and the so-called Enterocytospora-clade, which includes Enterocytospora artemiae and Globulispora mitoportans. Both of these groups contain gut-infecting microsporidians of aquatic invertebrates, fish and humans. According to morphological and phylogenetic characters, we propose that P. carcini occupies a basal position to the Enterocytozoonidae. We discuss the discovery of this parasite from a taxonomic perspective and consider its origins and presence within a high profile invasive host on the Atlantic Canadian coastline