Visualising harms in publications of randomised controlled trials: consensus and recommendations

OBJECTIVE: To improve communication of harm in publications of randomised controlled trials via the development of recommendations for visually presenting harm outcomes. DESIGN: Consensus study. SETTING: 15 clinical trials units registered with the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, an academic population health department, Roche Products, and The BMJ. PARTICIPANTS: Experts in clinical trials: 20 academic statisticians, one industry statistician, one academic health economist, one data graphics designer, and two clinicians. MAIN OUTCOME: measures A methodological review of statistical methods identified visualisations along with those recommended by consensus group members. Consensus on visual recommendations was achieved (at least 60% of the available votes) over a series of three meetings with participants. The participants reviewed and critically appraised candidate visualisations against an agreed framework and voted on whether to endorse each visualisation. Scores marginally below this threshold (50-60%) were revisited for further discussions and votes retaken until consensus was reached. RESULTS: 28 visualisations were considered, of which 10 are recommended for researchers to consider in publications of main research findings. The choice of visualisations to present will depend on outcome type (eg, binary, count, time-to-event, or continuous), and the scenario (eg, summarising multiple emerging events or one event of interest). A decision tree is presented to assist trialists in deciding which visualisations to use. Examples are provided of each endorsed visualisation, along with an example interpretation, potential limitations, and signposting to code for implementation across a range of standard statistical software. Clinician feedback was incorporated into the explanatory information provided in the recommendations to aid understanding and interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: Visualisations provide a powerful tool to communicate harms in clinical trials, offering an alternative perspective to the traditional frequency tables. Increasing the use of visualisations for harm outcomes in clinical trial manuscripts and reports will provide clearer presentation of information and enable more informative interpretations. The limitations of each visualisation are discussed and examples of where their use would be inappropriate are given. Although the decision tree aids the choice of visualisation, the statistician and clinical trial team must ultimately decide the most appropriate visualisations for their data and objectives. Trialists should continue to examine crude numbers alongside visualisations to fully understand harm profiles

Visualising harms in Randomised Controlled Trial publications: a consensus and recommendations

Objective: To improve communication of harm in RCT publications we identified researchers’ recommendations for visualising harm outcomes. Design: Consensus study evaluating visualisation methods. Setting: 15 UKCRC registered CTUs, an academic population health department, Roche Product Ltd and the BMJ. Participants: Experts in clinical trials: 20 academic statisticians, one industry statistician, one academic health economist, a data graphics designer and two clinicians. Data sources: Visualisations were primarily identified via a methodological review of statistical methods developed specifically to analyse harm outcomes, these were considered alongside visualisations recommended by consensus group members. Interventions: None Main outcomes measured: Consensus for visualisations to recommend achieved over a series of three meetings with participants. Participants reviewed and critically appraised candidate visualisations against an agreed framework. Appraisals were summarised and presented back to participants to inform discussions. After discussions participants voted on whether to endorse each visualisation. Eligibility criteria: Visualisation receiving at least 60% of the available votes were endorsed. Scores marginally below this threshold (50-60%) were revisited for further discussions and votes retaken until a consensus was reached. Results: Twenty-eight visualisations were considered, of which ten are recommended to researchers to consider in publications of main research findings. The choice of visualisations to present will depend on outcome type e.g., binary, count, time-to-event or continuous and the scenario e.g., summarising multiple emerging events or one event of interest. A decision tree to assist trialists decide which visualisations to use is presented. Examples of each endorsed visualisation, along with example interpretation, potential limitations and signposting to code for implementation across a range of standard statistical software are provided. Clinician feedback was incorporated into the explanatory information provided in the recommendations to aid understanding and interpretation. Conclusions: Visualisations provide a powerful tool to communicate harms in clinical trials, offering an alternative perspective to the traditional frequency tables. Increasing the use of visualisations for harm outcomes in clinical trial manuscripts and reports will provide clearer presentation of harm information and thus enable informative interpretation, especially valuable for assessing the profile of harm. Whilst we endorse each of the visualisations presented, we also note their limitations and provide examples of where their use would be inappropriate. Though the decision tree aids the choice of visualisation the statistician and clinical trial team must ultimately decide the most appropriate visualisations for their data and objectives. We recommend trialists continue to examine crude numbers alongside visualisations to fully understand harm profiles

The Science Performance of JWST as Characterized in Commissioning

This paper characterizes the actual science performance of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), as determined from the six month commissioning period. We summarize the performance of the spacecraft, telescope, science instruments, and ground system, with an emphasis on differences from pre-launch expectations. Commissioning has made clear that JWST is fully capable of achieving the discoveries for which it was built. Moreover, almost across the board, the science performance of JWST is better than expected; in most cases, JWST will go deeper faster than expected. The telescope and instrument suite have demonstrated the sensitivity, stability, image quality, and spectral range that are necessary to transform our understanding of the cosmos through observations spanning from near-earth asteroids to the most distant galaxies.Comment: 5th version as accepted to PASP; 31 pages, 18 figures; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1538-3873/acb29

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

Genetic mechanisms of critical illness in COVID-19.

Host-mediated lung inflammation is present1, and drives mortality2, in the critical illness caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Host genetic variants associated with critical illness may identify mechanistic targets for therapeutic development3. Here we report the results of the GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care) genome-wide association study in 2,244 critically ill patients with COVID-19 from 208 UK intensive care units. We have identified and replicated the following new genome-wide significant associations: on chromosome 12q24.13 (rs10735079, P = 1.65 × 10-8) in a gene cluster that encodes antiviral restriction enzyme activators (OAS1, OAS2 and OAS3); on chromosome 19p13.2 (rs74956615, P = 2.3 × 10-8) near the gene that encodes tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2); on chromosome 19p13.3 (rs2109069, P = 3.98 ×  10-12) within the gene that encodes dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (DPP9); and on chromosome 21q22.1 (rs2236757, P = 4.99 × 10-8) in the interferon receptor gene IFNAR2. We identified potential targets for repurposing of licensed medications: using Mendelian randomization, we found evidence that low expression of IFNAR2, or high expression of TYK2, are associated with life-threatening disease; and transcriptome-wide association in lung tissue revealed that high expression of the monocyte-macrophage chemotactic receptor CCR2 is associated with severe COVID-19. Our results identify robust genetic signals relating to key host antiviral defence mechanisms and mediators of inflammatory organ damage in COVID-19. Both mechanisms may be amenable to targeted treatment with existing drugs. However, large-scale randomized clinical trials will be essential before any change to clinical practice

Increasing frailty is associated with higher prevalence and reduced recognition of delirium in older hospitalised inpatients: results of a multi-centre study

Purpose: Delirium is a neuropsychiatric disorder delineated by an acute change in cognition, attention, and consciousness. It is common, particularly in older adults, but poorly recognised. Frailty is the accumulation of deficits conferring an increased risk of adverse outcomes. We set out to determine how severity of frailty, as measured using the CFS, affected delirium rates, and recognition in hospitalised older people in the United Kingdom. Methods: Adults over 65 years were included in an observational multi-centre audit across UK hospitals, two prospective rounds, and one retrospective note review. Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), delirium status, and 30-day outcomes were recorded. Results: The overall prevalence of delirium was 16.3% (483). Patients with delirium were more frail than patients without delirium (median CFS 6 vs 4). The risk of delirium was greater with increasing frailty [OR 2.9 (1.8–4.6) in CFS 4 vs 1–3; OR 12.4 (6.2–24.5) in CFS 8 vs 1–3]. Higher CFS was associated with reduced recognition of delirium (OR of 0.7 (0.3–1.9) in CFS 4 compared to 0.2 (0.1–0.7) in CFS 8). These risks were both independent of age and dementia. Conclusion: We have demonstrated an incremental increase in risk of delirium with increasing frailty. This has important clinical implications, suggesting that frailty may provide a more nuanced measure of vulnerability to delirium and poor outcomes. However, the most frail patients are least likely to have their delirium diagnosed and there is a significant lack of research into the underlying pathophysiology of both of these common geriatric syndromes

DNA Methylation Profiles Suggest Intergenerational Transfer of Maternal Effects

The view of maternal effects (nongenetic maternal environmental influence on offspring phenotype) has changed from one of distracting complications in evolutionary genetics to an important evolutionary mechanism for improving offspring fitness. Recent studies have shown that maternal effects act as an adaptive mechanism to prepare offspring for stressful environments. Although research into the magnitude of maternal effects is abundant, the molecular mechanisms of maternal influences on offspring phenotypic variation are not fully understood. Despite recent work identifying DNA methylation as a potential mechanism of nongenetic inheritance, currently proposed links between DNA methylation and parental effects are indirect and primarily involve genomic imprinting. We combined a factorial breeding design and gene-targeted sequencing methods to assess inheritance of methylation during early life stages at 14 genes involved in growth, development, metabolism, stress response, and immune function of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). We found little evidence for additive or nonadditive genetic effects acting on methylation levels during early development; however, we detected significant maternal effects. Consistent with conventional maternal effect data, maternal effects on methylation declined through development and were replaced with nonadditive effects when offspring began exogenous feeding. We mapped methylation at individual CpG sites across the selected candidate genes to test for variation in site-specific methylation profiles and found significant maternal effects at selected CpG sites that also declined with development stage. While intergenerational inheritance of methylated DNA is controversial, we show that CpG-specific methylation may function as an underlying molecular mechanism for maternal effects, with important implications for offspring fitness