Quebec 2018, a failure of the polls or else?

The polls of the 2018 Quebec election forecast a close race between the two leading parties. The result, a clear victory of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) over the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ), was clearly at odds with the polls. We argue that when the polls get it wrong, it is important to determine whether there was a polling miss, in which the discrepancy is due to changing voter behaviour, or a poll failure, in which the problem stems from polling methodology. Our post-election poll shows that changing voter behaviour—last-minute shifts and the vote of non-disclosers—explains most of the discrepancy. These movements varied by region. We conclude that the Quebec 2018 election was among the worst polling misses in history but not necessarily a major poll failure.Les sondages de l’élection Québécoise de 2018 avaient annoncé une lutte serrée entre les deux principaux partis. Le résultat, une victoire décisive de la Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) aux dépens du Parti Liberal du Québec (PLQ), n’était clairement pas ce qui avait été anticipé. Nous soutenons que, lorsque les sondages se trompent, il est important de déterminer si l’écart entre les estimations des sondages et le vote est dû à un changement dans le comportement des électeurs ou à un échec des sondages eux-mêmes attribuable à la méthodologie utilisée. Notre sondage post-électoral montre que des changements dans le comportement des électeurs—changements de préférences de dernière minute et vote des discrets—expliquent la majeure partie des écarts dans cette élection. Ces mouvements varient toutefois selon les régions. Nous concluons que l’élection québécoise de 2018 se situe historiquement parmi les pires écarts entre les sondages et le vote mais ne peut pas être considérée comme un échec majeur des sondages eux-mêmes

How to combine and analyze all the data from diverse sources : a multilevel analysis of institutional trust in the world

Scholars who want to perform cross-national comparative research rely on data provided by International survey projects, which study the same concepts in varying countries and periods using different question wordings and scales. In this article, we propose a process to combine and analyse the data pertaining to the same concept—institutional trust—when measures and sources differ. We show how we combined 1327 surveys conducted from 1995 to 2017 by 17 survey projects in 142 countries. The database comprises close to 2 M respondents and 21 M answers to trust questions. We use local regression to visualize the trends in trust for different institutions and sources of data in different parts of the world. We complete these analyses with a 4-level longitudinal analysis of repeated measures. These analyses lead to reliably conclude that institutional trust is a property of the institutions themselves and of the context in which they operate since there is much more variance within respondents than between respondents and more variance between countries than over time. This research contributes to the current debates in political trust research. Since the process presented here can be applied to other fields of research, the research also contributes to enhance the possibilities for comparative cross-national analysis

Should Recall of Previous Votes Be Used to Adjust Estimates of Voting Intention?

Correction of estimates of voting intention using voter recall of previous votes is frequent in electoral polls, particularly in Europe. However, research on the impact of its use is scarce. The results presented in this paper confirm that voting is not a salient, memorable behaviour for all voters. People who always vote the same way and identify with a political party are likely to accurately remember their vote, but in most developed countries, change of allegiance is now common. A substantial portion of the electorate changes its mind between or during campaigns, and switchers seem to have more difficulty remembering how they voted. Recall error is not random. Voters’ misremembering a previous vote to reconcile it with how they currently wish to vote (reconciliation) and, above all, the difficulty in reaching voters for far-right or populist parties/candidates, and in convincing them to reveal their true vote or voting intention are the main explanations for error. Memory failure also plays a role, but the overall impact appears to be weak. Finally, reconciliation and social desirability also play roles when it comes to correcting estimates using recall of past voting, but the overall impact is weak. The results presented here show that, at best, the practice does not have a significant, substantial, impact on estimates. We suggest that researchers and pollsters would do better to focus their energies on tackling the problem itself instead of working on a posteriori correction

La méthodologie des sondages électoraux de l’élection présidentielle française de 2007

Election Poll Methodology and the 2007 French Presidential Elections – Chronicle of a Recurring Problem: The 2002 presidential election polls will be remembered for a long time because their error in predictions had dramatic consequences. What influence did those elections have on French opinion poll research and was it able to revise its methods? Was it able to improve its voting estimates? Research has shown that French polls are now more able to distinguish between voting for the left and the right than in 2002. However, French polls have not improved their capability to estimate intentions to vote for major candidates. The discrepancies between means for twelve polls published during the last week before voting vary from 1.8 points for Royal to 3.2 points for Sarkozy and 3.8 points for Le Pen. These results show that the estimation error for Le Pen is the same in 2007 as in 2002, but in the opposite direction. As in 2002, samples were biased concerning level of education – strong under-representation of the less educated – as well as for voting profile – strong non-declaration of voting for Le Pen. One can thus conclude that the problem of estimating the extreme right vote remains in its entirety and that polling institute methods have not changed greatly. Cooperation between the institutes and researchers should permit further explanations and possible solutions.Les sondages pour l’élection présidentielle française de 2002 resteront dans l’histoire parce que leur erreur de prédiction a eu des conséquences importantes. Quelle influence cette élection a-t-elle eu sur les instituts de sondage français ? Ont-ils su réviser leurs méthodes ? Ont-ils amélioré leur estimation du vote ? La recherche montre que, s’ils ont mieux su estimer la répartition du vote entre la droite et la gauche qu’en 2002, ils n’ont pas mieux estimé l’intention de vote pour les principaux candidats. L’écart entre la moyenne des douze sondages publiés durant la dernière semaine et le vote varie de 1,8 points pour Royal à 3,2 points pour Sarkozy et 3,8 points pour Le Pen. Les résultats montrent que l’erreur d’estimation pour Le Pen est aussi forte en 2007 qu’en 2002, mais en sens inverse. Comme en 2002, les échantillons sont biaisés pour le niveau d’éducation – forte sous-représentation des moins scolarisés – et le profil de vote – forte sous-déclaration du vote pour Le Pen. Le problème d’estimation du vote d’extrême droite demeure entier et les méthodes des instituts ont peu changé. Une coopération entre les instituts et les chercheurs permettrait sans doute d’esquisser des pistes d’explications et de solutions

Les paysans de l'Alaotra, entre rizières et tanety. Etude des dynamiques agraires et des stratégies paysannes dans un contexte de pression foncière, Lac Alaotra, Madagascar : projet de mise en valeur et de protection des bassins versants au Lac Alaotra (BV Alaotra). Document de travail BV lac n°10

Document de travai

MMX, The Next Generation of In-Situ Exploration Mission

The JAXA MMX (Martian Moons eXploration) mission has the objectives to study Phobos, the largest moon of Mars, and to bring back to Earth a sample from its surface, to answer one main question: what is the origin of the Martian moons? This mission will be launched in 2026 and will last five years. MMX spacecraft, the orbiter, developed by JAXA will travel from Earth to Mars and then study Phobos and Deimos moons with a foreseen sample collection of Phobos soil. MMX will carry and drop a small rover, developed by CNES and DLR, on Phobos surface. This rover, called Idefix, delivered close to the sample collection area will perform soil characterization in order to secure MMX spacecraft landing It\u27s designed to drive in very low gravity and low power availability for a hundred days, moving thanks to four wheels and carrying a couple of instruments to study Phobos composition. The electronic elements of the rover are in a nanosat size stack. CNES was in charge of most of the rover internal subsystems, the flight software, the mission analysis and thermal and mechanical architectures. DLR was in charge of the rover chassis, shutters, separation and locomotion systems. CNES and DLR share the system, operations and project lead. The RF communication between the rover and the orbiter is performed thanks to an intersatellite link using two S-band transponders. Their design is a heritage of the Rosetta-Philae mission combined to the needs brought by the nanosatellite markets. The article will present in a first part the development logic and the characteristics of these equipment. The communications during the mission will go through three different phases, each one associated to specific constraints. A second part of the article will focus on these phases and the impacts on the RF link. A third part will focus on the ISL qualifications, tests and measurements performed to comply with the mission and planning constraints

La formation des doctorants

La formation des doctorants aux problématiques de l'information scientifique et technique représente un enjeu particulièrement sensible pour l'enseignement supérieur et la recherche en France. Doublement affectée par de profondes transformations institutionnelles ainsi que par l'évolution accélérée des technologies numériques, la culture de l'information scientifique demeure l'un des piliers fondamentaux de la recherche et un élément incontournable dans la mise en œuvre d'une politique éclairée. La plupart des domaines d'activité du chercheur sont concernés : l'investigation, la propriété intellectuelle, la recherche documentaire, l'écriture scientifique, la publication, la communication scientifique, l'évaluation, les évolutions et les opportunités offertes par les outils numériques, la vulgarisation scientifique… Cet ouvrage se propose de poser quelques jalons afin d'alimenter la réflexion des divers protagonistes, universitaires, documentalistes, bibliothécaires, qui interviennent auprès du doctorant pour l'informer ou le guider tout au long de son parcours : quels seraient les attentes des doctorants et les besoins du monde académique ? Quelles connaissances et compétences les formateurs ont-ils à mobiliser ? Quels enseignements tirer des expériences et dispositifs mis en place ? Autant de questions pour approcher une thématique à la morphologie complexe. Le débat qu'elles suscitent met en lumière un bilan riche en interrogations et fécond pour l'avenir

Conclusion

Plusieurs contributions réunies dans cet ouvrage ont rappelé combien les réformes universitaires et l’arrivée de la culture numérique transforment en profondeur l’exercice de la thèse. Cette question de la formation des doctorants à l’information scientifique, ouverte et travaillée de toutes parts, ressemble à un vaste chantier qui comporte encore de nombreuses pistes à explorer. Dans un paysage académique informationnel en profonde mutation, le circuit traditionnel de la publication de l’art..