Banking on strong rural livelihoods and the sustainable use of natural capital in post-conflict Colombia

In post-conflict Colombia, the government has prioritized resettlement of displaced people through development of strong rural livelihoods and the sustainable use of natural capital. In this paper, we considered government proposals for expanding payment for ecosystem services (PES) and sustainable silvopastoral systems, and private-sector investment in habitat banking. We coupled the Integrated Economic-Environmental Model (IEEM) with spatially explicit land use and land cover change and ecosystem services models to assess the potential impacts of these programs through the lens of wealth and sustainable economic development. This innovative workflow integrates dynamic endogenous feedbacks between natural capital, ecosystem services and the economic system, and can be applied to other country contexts. Results show that PES and habitat banking programs are strong investment propositions (Net Present Value of US$4.4 and$4.9 billion, respectively), but only when moving beyond conventional economic analysis to include non-market ecosystem services. Where a portfolio investment approach is taken and PES is implemented with sustainable silvopastoral systems, investment returns would reach US$7.1 billion. This paper provides a detailed evaluation of the benefits of investing in rural livelihoods and enhancing Colombia’s natural capital base, with empirical evidence to inform the spatial targeting of policies to maximize economic, environmental and social outcomes. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.This study was funded by the Inter-American Development Bank and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (UK). Support for Kenneth J. Bagstad’s time was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Land Change Science Program

An Amazon Tipping Point: The Economic and Environmental Fallout

The Amazon biome, despite its resilience, is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer possible. This is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. In this paper, we develop scenarios that represent movement towards an Amazon tipping point and strategies to avert one. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of these scenarios using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform linked with high resolution spatial land use land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEM+ESM). This paper’s main contributions are developing: (i) a framework for evaluating strategies to avert an Amazon tipping point based on their relative costs, benefits and trade-offs, and; (ii) a first approximation of the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of movement towards an Amazon tipping point, and evidence to build the economic case for strategies to avert it. We find that a conservative estimate of the cumulative regional cost through 2050 of an Amazon tipping point would be US$256.6 billion in Gross Domestic Product. Policies that would contribute to averting a tipping point, including strongly reducing deforestation, investing in climate-adapted agriculture, and improving fire management, would generate approximately US$339.3 billion in additional wealth. From a public investment perspective, the returns to implementing strategies for averting a tipping point would be US$29.5 billion. Quantifying the costs, benefits and trade-offs of policies to avert a tipping point in a transparent and replicable manner can pave the way for evidence-based approaches to support policy action focusing on the design of regional strategies for the Amazon biome and catalyze global cooperation and financing to enable their implementation.Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociale

Regional development gaps in Argentina: A multidimensional approach to identify the location of policy priorities

Spatial inequalities within Latin American countries have historically attracted the interest ofacademics, policy-makers, and international agencies. This article aims to provide amultidimensional diagnosis of provincial development gaps in Argentina, in order to identifythe location of policy priorities. Therefore, we built a large database, which covers sevendevelopment dimensions, and applied multivariate analysis techniques to overcome someanalytical limitations of previous studies. Results show the stability of provincial developmentgaps between 2003 and 2013 and some heterogeneity within geographic regions. Instead,cluster analysis offers a better classification of Argentine provinces according to theirdevelopment gaps, which can help the government to prioritize the places wheredevelopment policies are strategic.Fil: Niembro, Andrés Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro; ArgentinaFil: Sarmiento, Jesica Isabel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro; Argentin

Analysis of alternative routes of public investment in agriculture and their impact on economic growth and rural poverty reduction in Nicaragua

In the face of the economic downturn that Nicaragua experienced in 2018 and the need for a recovery, the study provides a comparative analysis of how investments in productive infrastructure in different agri-food sectors would impact on growth and poverty. The analysis is based on scenarios generated through an economy-wide model representing the Nicaraguan economy and its sectors. The model includes financing constraints and the study explores different financing options for the new investments

Economic, social and environmental effects of reducing dairy methane emissions through market-based policies: An application of the Livestock Policy Simulation Model

Several technological approaches to mitigate methane dairy emissions are available; however, assuming that technological change alone generates the necessary incentives to accelerate emissions reduction is risky. Without adequate market signals, producers might choose not to use the technologies available or to the desired extent. Addressing this economic problem requires altering producers’ and consumers’ behaviour by introducing incentives or constraints. Employing the livestock policy simulation model, we examine the effects of reducing methane emissions in the dairy sector under different market-based policy instruments. We used the primary dairy sector in Uruguay as a case study. The results show that a policy mix combining a set of market-based instruments can be more effective than a single policy instrument alone

A Conceptual Framework for Integrated Economic–Environmental Modeling

Economy-wide models such as computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are powerful tools that provide insights on policy impacts on standard economic indicators. With the recent publication of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA), the power of this approach is amplified. This article addresses an important gap in economy-wide policy modeling applications and literature by developing a conceptual framework for the integration of the SEEA in the CGE framework, enabling for the first time the analysis of policy impacts on the economy and the environment in a quantitative, comprehensive, and consistent framework. Previous integrated modeling efforts have generally focused on the interaction between the economy and one environmental resource in isolation, requiring significant data reconciliation. Integration of SEEA into a CGE circumvents this resource intense process, enhancing analytical power, obviating the need for strong assumptions in reconciling economic–environmental data, reducing start-up costs, and increasing the timeliness of evidence-based policy advice. </jats:p