Assessing the relative importance of parameter and forcing uncertainty and their interactions in conceptual hydrological model simulations

Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion

Publisher Correction: Hydro-climatic changes of wetlandscapes across the world

Assessments of ecosystem service and function losses of wetlandscapes (i.e., wetlands and their hydrological catchments) suffer from knowledge gaps regarding impacts of ongoing hydro-climatic change. This study investigates hydro-climatic changes during 1976–2015 in 25 wetlandscapes distributed across the world’s tropical, arid, temperate and cold climate zones. Results show that the wetlandscapes were subject to precipitation (P) and temperature (T) changes consistent with mean changes over the world’s land area. However, arid and cold wetlandscapes experienced higher T increases than their respective climate zone. Also, average P decreased in arid and cold wetlandscapes, contrarily to P of arid and cold climate zones, suggesting that these wetlandscapes are located in regions of elevated climate pressures. For most wetlandscapes with available runoff (R) data, the decreases were larger in R than in P, which was attributed to aggravation of climate change impacts by enhanced evapotranspiration losses, e.g. caused by land-use changes

Clinical Mass Spectrometry in the Bioinformatics Era: A Hitchhiker’s Guide

Mass spectrometry (MS) is a sensitive, specific and versatile analytical technique in the clinical laboratory that has recently undergone rapid development. From initial use in metabolic profiling, it has matured into applications including clinical toxicology assays, target hormone and metabolite quantitation, and more recently, rapid microbial identification and antimicrobial resistance detection by matrix assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). In this mini-review, we first succinctly outline the basics of clinical mass spectrometry. Examples of hard ionization (electron ionization) and soft ionization (electrospray ionization, MALDI) are presented to demonstrate their clinical applications. Next, a conceptual discourse on mass selection and determination is presented: quadrupole mass filter, time-of-flight mass spectrometer and the Orbitrap; and MS/MS (tandem-in-space, tandem-in-time and data acquisition), illustrated with clinical examples. Current applications in (1) bacterial and fungal identification, antimicrobial susceptibility testing and phylogenetic classification, (2) general unknown urine toxicology screening and expanded new-born metabolic screening and (3) clinical metabolic profiling by gas chromatography are outlined. Finally, major limitations of MS-based techniques, including the technical challenges of matrix effect and isobaric interference; and novel challenges in the post-genomic era, such as protein molecular variants, are critically discussed from the perspective of service laboratories. Computer technology and structural biology have played important roles in the maturation of this field. MS-based techniques have the potential to replace current analytical techniques, and existing expertise and instrument will undergo rapid evolution. Significant automation and adaptation to regulatory requirements are underway. Mass spectrometry is unleashing its potentials in clinical laboratories

High levels of spatial heterogeneity in the biodiversity of soil prokaryotes on Signy Island, Antarctica

In a previous study, soil bacterial diversity at environmentally distinct locations on Signy Island was examined using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) profiling, and a range of chemical variables in soils was determined in order to describe variations between them. The dominant bacterial communities of all locations were found to be significantly different, although higher levels of similarity were observed between locations with similar physico-chemical characteristics, such as at penguin rookeries, seal wallows and vegetated soils. Extending this study, here soil prokaryote biodiversity was compared between 15 distinct locations in order to elucidate any interaction between four general habitat types on Signy Island (South Orkney Islands, maritime Antarctic) and any influence of previous human impacts at these sites. Specific sites were selected to represent the range of different soil environments present and to cover a range of environmental factors present in the maritime Antarctic which are known to influence bacterial community composition in soils elsewhere. A diverse prokaryote community is described, again with the majority of excised and sequenced bands belonging to the Bacteroidetes. Although DGGE profiling identified significant differences in prokaryotic biodiversity between all sampling sites, aggregations of banding patterns were also apparent across the different soil environments examined. Correlations between specific DGGE profiles and 10 selected soil parameters suggested that much of this variation could be explained by differences in the levels of environmental disturbance and soil pH. In particular, a greater proportion of variation in soil bacterial diversity was explained by differences in soil properties at human-disturbed locations than at undisturbed locations, with higher explanatory values by edaphic factors in the former and soil metal content in the later. In general, our data indicate that small-scale variation is an important factor in understanding patterns of prokaryotic distributions in soil habitats in the maritime Antarctic environment

Environmental influences on bacterial diversity of soils on Signy Island, maritime Antarctic

Soil bacterial diversity at environmentally distinct locations on Signy Island, South Orkney Islands was examined using the denaturing gradient gel profiling approach. A range of chemical variables in soils at each site was determined in order to describe variation between locations. No apparent differences in Shannon Diversity Index (H') were observed. However, as revealed in an analysis of similarity (ANOSIM), the dominant bacterial communities of all eight studied locations were significantly different. Within this, higher levels of similarity were observed between penguin rookeries, seal wallows and vegetated soils, all of which share varying levels of impact from vertebrate activity, in contrast with more barren soil. In addition, the lowest H' value was detected from the latter soil which also has the most extreme environmental conditions, and its bacterial community has the greatest genetic distance from the other locations. DGGE analyses indicated that the majority of the excised and sequenced bands were attributable to the Bacteroidetes. Across a range of ten environmental variables, multivariate correlation analysis suggested that a combination of pH, conductivity, copper and lead content potentially contributed explanatory value to the measured soil bacterial diversity

Comparison of drought projections using two UK weather generators

Possible changes in drought under future climate scenarios may pose unprecedented challenges for water resources, as well as other environmental and societal issues, and need assessment to quantify their associated risk. Two weather generators, based upon (a) the Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses (NSRP) model as implemented by the United Kingdom Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) study, and (b) the generalized linear model (GLM) approach, are used to investigate potential variations in drought conditions for six catchments in the UK under climate projections. The results show that both weather generators provide rainfall simulations having satisfactory monthly statistics. However, the rainfall series from the UKCP09 weather generators lack inter-annual variability, whereas the GLM simulations, which include non-stationary global circulation model (GCM) outputs as driving variables, seem to have a more appropriate representation of the observed drought conditions. For drought projections in the 2080s, the UKCP09 simulations provide repetitive patterns without much temporal variation, similar to the results in the control period. This study suggests that for the drought index considered here (a 3-month drought severity index) the GLM approach appears to be a more appropriate model for drought study on inter-annual scales in comparison with the UKCP09 weather generator.Editor D. KoutsoyiannisCitation Chun, K.P., Wheater, H.S., and Onof, C., 2013. Comparison of drought projections using two UK weather generators. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 295-309. © 2013 Copyright 2013 IAHS Press