IT adoption and spatial agglomeration - a model of cumulative adoption in a small open economy

I develop a model of cumulative ICT investments in a small open economy framework with differenciated inputs and imperfect competition borrowed to Ciccone and Matsuyama (1996). Within this framework, fixed adoption costs and pecuniary externalities based on strategic complementarities between users and producers of ICT-related inputs are what allow for agglomeration economies in ICT investments despite the abscence of transport costs. Moreover, expectations and the way alternative industrial structures allow them to be coordinated (monopolistic competition versus horizontally integrated monopoly) are key determinants of the likelyhood of an economic catching-up based on the intensive adoption of ICT inputs. Actually, three alternative growth paths with very different long-run outcome are allowed to emerge : 1) a “no-growth path” path in which the economy is trapped into primitive production processes; 2) a “transitory high growth path” in which the region underwents a process of adjustment to technological change and modernize its production processes by intensively adopting imported ICT-related inputs; 3) a “miracle growth path” where the regional economy find the adequate incentives not only to intensively adopt imported ICT inputs but also to develop and produce new ICT inputs.

Classical Estimation of Multivariate Markov-Switching Models using MSVARlib

This paper introduces an upgraded version of MSVARlib, a Gauss and Ox- Gauss compliant library, focusing on Multivariate Markov Switching Regressions in their most general specification. This new set of procedures allows to estimate, through classical optimization methods, models belonging to the MSI(M)(AH)-VARX ``intercept regime dependent'' family. This research enhances the first package MSVARlib 1.1, which has been deeply inspired by the works of Hamilton and Krolzig. Not to mention the extension to a generalized multivariate regression framework, it notably augments the range of models with a possibly unlimited finite number of Markov states, offers automatic or manual intialization procedures and adds new statistical tests. The first part of this article provides the basic theoretical grounds of the related Markov-switching models. Following sections give some illustrations of the programs through univariate and multivariate examples. One is based on a non-linear reading of the american unemployment rate. A second study is focused on coincident stochastic models of US recessions and slowdowns. The paper concludes on possible extensions and new applications. Detailed guidelines in appendices and tutorial programs are provided to help the reader handling the Gauss package and the joined replication files.Multivariate Markov-Switching Regressions, Hidden markov Models, Non linear regressions, Open source Gauss library, Business cycle, EM algorithm, Kittagawa-Hamilton Filtering, Recession Detection Models, MSVAR, MS-VAR, Hamilton's Model, Krolzig MSVAR library,Filtered probabilities, Smoothed probabilities.

Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models

This paper explores the American business cycle with the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) as a monitoring tool using monthly data. It exhibits ten US time series which offer reliable information to detect recessions in real time. It also proposes and assesses the performances of different and complementary “recession models” based on Markovian processes, discusses the most efficient and easiest way of encompassing information through these models and draws three main conclusions: simple HMM are decisive to monitor the business cycle and some series are proved highly reliable; more sophisticated models such as the Dynamic Factor with Markov Switching (DFMS) model or Stock and Watson’s Experimental Recession Index seem not to be more powerful than simple (univariate or pseudo-multivariate) Hidden Markov Models, which remain far more parsimonious; combining information in temporal space seems to work marginally better than in probability space for high frequency data. We conclude about leading and “real time detection” properties related to HMM and give some hints for further research.Business Cycle, Markov Switching, Dynamic Factor, Coincident Indicators

LIDAR-based Driving Path Generation Using Fully Convolutional Neural Networks

In this work, a novel learning-based approach has been developed to generate driving paths by integrating LIDAR point clouds, GPS-IMU information, and Google driving directions. The system is based on a fully convolutional neural network that jointly learns to carry out perception and path generation from real-world driving sequences and that is trained using automatically generated training examples. Several combinations of input data were tested in order to assess the performance gain provided by specific information modalities. The fully convolutional neural network trained using all the available sensors together with driving directions achieved the best MaxF score of 88.13% when considering a region of interest of 60x60 meters. By considering a smaller region of interest, the agreement between predicted paths and ground-truth increased to 92.60%. The positive results obtained in this work indicate that the proposed system may help fill the gap between low-level scene parsing and behavior-reflex approaches by generating outputs that are close to vehicle control and at the same time human-interpretable.Comment: Changed title, formerly "Simultaneous Perception and Path Generation Using Fully Convolutional Neural Networks

LIDAR-Camera Fusion for Road Detection Using Fully Convolutional Neural Networks

In this work, a deep learning approach has been developed to carry out road detection by fusing LIDAR point clouds and camera images. An unstructured and sparse point cloud is first projected onto the camera image plane and then upsampled to obtain a set of dense 2D images encoding spatial information. Several fully convolutional neural networks (FCNs) are then trained to carry out road detection, either by using data from a single sensor, or by using three fusion strategies: early, late, and the newly proposed cross fusion. Whereas in the former two fusion approaches, the integration of multimodal information is carried out at a predefined depth level, the cross fusion FCN is designed to directly learn from data where to integrate information; this is accomplished by using trainable cross connections between the LIDAR and the camera processing branches. To further highlight the benefits of using a multimodal system for road detection, a data set consisting of visually challenging scenes was extracted from driving sequences of the KITTI raw data set. It was then demonstrated that, as expected, a purely camera-based FCN severely underperforms on this data set. A multimodal system, on the other hand, is still able to provide high accuracy. Finally, the proposed cross fusion FCN was evaluated on the KITTI road benchmark where it achieved excellent performance, with a MaxF score of 96.03%, ranking it among the top-performing approaches

Ten years of the horse reference genome: insights into equine biology, domestication and population dynamics in the post-genome era.

The horse reference genome from the Thoroughbred mare Twilight has been available for a decade and, together with advances in genomics technologies, has led to unparalleled developments in equine genomics. At the core of this progress is the continuing improvement of the quality, contiguity and completeness of the reference genome, and its functional annotation. Recent achievements include the release of the next version of the reference genome (EquCab3.0) and generation of a reference sequence for the Y chromosome. Horse satellite-free centromeres provide unique models for mammalian centromere research. Despite extremely low genetic diversity of the Y chromosome, it has been possible to trace patrilines of breeds and pedigrees and show that Y variation was lost in the past approximately 2300 years owing to selective breeding. The high-quality reference genome has led to the development of three different SNP arrays and WGSs of almost 2000 modern individual horses. The collection of WGS of hundreds of ancient horses is unique and not available for any other domestic species. These tools and resources have led to global population studies dissecting the natural history of the species and genetic makeup and ancestry of modern breeds. Most importantly, the available tools and resources, together with the discovery of functional elements, are dissecting molecular causes of a growing number of Mendelian and complex traits. The improved understanding of molecular underpinnings of various traits continues to benefit the health and performance of the horse whereas also serving as a model for complex disease across species