Diffusion Variational Autoencoder for Tackling Stochasticity in Multi-Step Regression Stock Price Prediction

Multi-step stock price prediction over a long-term horizon is crucial for forecasting its volatility, allowing financial institutions to price and hedge derivatives, and banks to quantify the risk in their trading books. Additionally, most financial regulators also require a liquidity horizon of several days for institutional investors to exit their risky assets, in order to not materially affect market prices. However, the task of multi-step stock price prediction is challenging, given the highly stochastic nature of stock data. Current solutions to tackle this problem are mostly designed for single-step, classification-based predictions, and are limited to low representation expressiveness. The problem also gets progressively harder with the introduction of the target price sequence, which also contains stochastic noise and reduces generalizability at test-time. To tackle these issues, we combine a deep hierarchical variational-autoencoder (VAE) and diffusion probabilistic techniques to do seq2seq stock prediction through a stochastic generative process. The hierarchical VAE allows us to learn the complex and low-level latent variables for stock prediction, while the diffusion probabilistic model trains the predictor to handle stock price stochasticity by progressively adding random noise to the stock data. Our Diffusion-VAE (D-Va) model is shown to outperform state-of-the-art solutions in terms of its prediction accuracy and variance. More importantly, the multi-step outputs can also allow us to form a stock portfolio over the prediction length. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model outputs in the portfolio investment task through the Sharpe ratio metric and highlight the importance of dealing with different types of prediction uncertainties.Comment: CIKM 202

EFFECTS OF MASSAGE ON POST-EXERCISE MUSCLE STIFFNESS: PRELIMINARY FINDINGS

This study examined the effects of massage on post-exercise muscle stiffness. Six well trained male runners underwent a 40-minute downhill run and had one leg massaged and the contralateral leg receiving a placebo treatment on the rectus femoris (RF) and tibialis anterior (TA). Muscle soreness perception and stiffness were assessed at baseline, post-run, post-treatment, 24,48, 72, and 96 hours post-run. Muscle stiffness of the RF and TA increased and peaked at 24 hours after the downhill run before a gradual reduction in subsequent days. A more rapid recovery (decrease in stiffness) was oberved in the massaged RF compared with the contralateral leg although soreness perceptions were similar between legs for both muscles. Massage might be effective in reducing stiffness of muscles that are larger in size and that experience greater soreness post-exercise

A METHOD AND A CONNECTING DEVICE FOR ASSOCIATING USERS AND PHILANTHROPIC ENTITIES

The present disclosure relates to a method and a connecting device for associating users and philanthropic entities to help in community movement. In the present disclosure, initially a connecting device 103 may receive a request from an authorization entity to connect to a philanthropic entity 105. The authorization entity may send the request to the connecting device 103 when the user device 101 initiates a transaction with a merchant. The authorization entity may determine if the user device 101 is enrolled in the charity program. Further, the connecting device 103 may send a request to retrieve the event data associated with the charity program to philanthropic entity 105. The connecting device 103 may further transmit the retrieved event data associated with the charity program to the user device 101. Finally, the connecting device 103 triggers the contribution as charity to the philanthropic entity 105 based on the received response

Cardiac Involvement related to COVID-19 Infection and Vaccination in Children and Adolescents – Hong Kong's Perspective

Myocarditis and Pericarditis have many virological and immunological causes. This article described the SARS-CoV involvement to the heart in children and adolescents, also the entity Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C), a rare but severe consequence of SARS-CoV2 infection. Hong Kong case definition of MIS-C was listed. The consensus from overseas experts was that MIS-C should be managed by multidisciplinary team with a structured long-term follow-up to monitor the functioning of various organs and ascertain the prognosis. The side effect mRNA vaccination causing myocarditis and pericarditis is also concern of paediatricians worldwide. Hong Kong published local epidemiology of acute myocarditis and pericarditis among adolescents following Comirnaty vaccination, the local and overseas data were used in fine-tuning the COVID vaccination program in children and adolescents. To prevent severe and fatal outcome of COVID-19 diseases, it is important to educate the public and to promote COVID-19 vaccination in the community, also to continue monitoring the safety of the available vaccines

Medium-term Outcomes of Myocarditis and Pericarditis following BNT162b2 Vaccination among Adolescents in Hong Kong

In this study, we examined the clinical and electrophysiological outcomes of adolescents in Hong Kong who developed myocarditis or pericarditis following BNT162b2 vaccination for COVID-19, and followed-up for 60 to 180 days after their initial diagnosis. Clinical assessments included electrocardiogram (ECG) and echocardiogram at the initial admission and follow-up were compared. Treadmill testing was also performed in some cases. Between 14 June 2021 and 16 February 2022, 53 subjects were approached to participate in this follow-up study, of which 28 patients were followed up for >60 days with a median follow-up period of 100 days (range, 61-178 days) and were included in this study. On admission, 23 patients had ECG abnormalities but no high-grade atrioventricular block. Six patients had echocardiogram abnormalities, including reduced contractility, small rim pericardial effusions, and hyperechoic ventricular walls. All patients achieved complete recovery on follow-up. After discharge, 10 patients (35.7%) reported symptoms, including occasional chest pain, shortness of breath, reduced exercise tolerance, and recurrent vasovagal near-syncope. At follow-up, assessments, including ECGs, were almost all normal. Among the three patients with possible ECG abnormalities, all their echocardiograms or treadmill testings were normal. Sixteen patients (57.1%) underwent treadmill testing at a median of 117 days post-admission, which were also normal. However, at follow-up, there was a significant mean bodyweight increase of 1.81kg (95%CI 0.47-3.1 kg, p=0.01), possibly due to exercise restriction. In conclusion, most adolescents experiencing myocarditis and pericarditis following BNT162b2 vaccination achieved complete recovery. Some patients developed non-specific persistent symptoms, and bodyweight changes shall be monitored

The central role of natural killer cells in mediating acute myocarditis after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination

BACKGROUND: Vaccine-related acute myocarditis is recognized as a rare and specific vaccine complication following mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccinations. The precise mechanisms remain unclear. We hypothesized that natural killer (NK) cells play a central role in its pathogenesis. METHODS: Samples from 60 adolescents with vaccine-related myocarditis were analyzed, including pro-inflammatory cytokines, cardiac troponin T, genotyping, and immunophenotyping of the corresponding activation subsets of NK cells, monocytes, and T cells. Results were compared with samples from 10 vaccinated individuals without myocarditis and 10 healthy controls. FINDINGS: Phenotypically, high levels of serum cytokines pivotal for NK cells, including interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interferon α2 (IFN-α2), IL-12, and IFN-γ, were observed in post-vaccination patients with myocarditis, who also had high percentage of CD57 NK cells in blood, which in turn correlated positively with elevated levels of cardiac troponin T. Abundance of the CD57 NK subset was particularly prominent in males and in those after the second dose of vaccination. Genotypically, killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIR) KIR2DL5B(-)/KIR2DS3(+)/KIR2DS5(-)/KIR2DS4del(+) was a risk haplotype, in addition to single-nucleotide polymorphisms related to the NK cell-specific expression quantitative trait loci DNAM-1 and FuT11, which also correlated with cardiac troponin T levels in post-vaccination patients with myocarditis. CONCLUSION: Collectively, these data suggest that NK cell activation by mRNA COVID-19 vaccine contributed to the pathogenesis of acute myocarditis in genetically and epidemiologically vulnerable subjects

Chikungunya Disease: Infection-Associated Markers from the Acute to the Chronic Phase of Arbovirus-Induced Arthralgia

At the end of 2005, an outbreak of fever associated with joint pain occurred in La Réunion. The causal agent, chikungunya virus (CHIKV), has been known for 50 years and could thus be readily identified. This arbovirus is present worldwide, particularly in India, but also in Europe, with new variants returning to Africa. In humans, it causes a disease characterized by a typical acute infection, sometimes followed by persistent arthralgia and myalgia lasting months or years. Investigations in the La Réunion cohort and studies in a macaque model of chikungunya implicated monocytes-macrophages in viral persistence. In this Review, we consider the relationship between CHIKV and the immune response and discuss predictive factors for chronic arthralgia and myalgia by providing an overview of current knowledge on chikungunya pathogenesis. Comparisons of data from animal models of the acute and chronic phases of infection, and data from clinical series, provide information about the mechanisms of CHIKV infection–associated inflammation, viral persistence in monocytes-macrophages, and their link to chronic signs

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely