An improved probabilistic account of counterfactual reasoning

When people want to identify the causes of an event, assign credit or blame, or learn from their mistakes, they often reflect on how things could have gone differently. In this kind of reasoning, one considers a counterfactual world in which some events are different from their real-world counterparts and considers what else would have changed. Researchers have recently proposed several probabilistic models that aim to capture how people do (or should) reason about counterfactuals. We present a new model and show that it accounts better for human inferences than several alternative models. Our model builds on the work of Pearl (2000), and extends his approach in a way that accommodates backtracking inferences and that acknowledges the difference between counterfactual interventions and counterfactual observations. We present six new experiments and analyze data from four experiments carried out by Rips (2010), and the results suggest that the new model provides an accurate account of both mean human judgments and the judgments of individuals

A Labor Lawyer\u27s Guide to the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990*

On July 26, 1990, in a joyous ceremony on the south lawn of the White House, President George Bush signed the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 lx into la

A unified theory of counterfactual reasoning

A successful theory of causal reasoning should be able to account for inferences about counterfactual scenarios. Pearl (2000) has developed a formal account of causal reasoning that has been highly influential but that suffers from at least two limitations as an account of counterfactual reasoning: it does not distinguish between counterfactual observations and counterfactual interventions, and it does not accommodate backtracking counterfactuals. We present an extension of Pearl’s account that overcomes both limitations. Our model provides a unified treatment of counterfactual interventions and backtracking counterfactuals, and we show that it accounts for data collected by Sloman and Lagnado (2005) and Rips (2010). In addition to reasoning about actual states of affairs, humans find it natural to reason about what might have been

RHINO forms a stoichiometric complex with the 9-1-1 checkpoint clamp and mediates ATR-Chk1 signaling http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.4161/15384101.2014.967076

The ATR-Chk1 signaling pathway mediates cellular responses to DNA damage and replication stress and is composed of a number of core factors that are conserved throughout eukaryotic organisms. However, humans and other higher eukaryotic species possess additional factors that are implicated in the regulation of this signaling network but that have not been extensively studied. Here we show that RHINO (for Rad9, Rad1, Hus1 interacting nuclear orphan) forms complexes with both the 9-1-1 checkpoint clamp and TopBP1 in human cells even in the absence of treatments with DNA damaging agents via direct interactions with the Rad9 and Rad1 subunits of the 9-1-1 checkpoint clamp and with the ATR kinase activator TopBP1. The interaction of RHINO with 9-1-1 was of sufficient affinity to allow for the purification of a stable heterotetrameric RHINO-Rad9-Hus1-Rad1 complex in vitro. In human cells, a portion of RHINO localizes to chromatin in the absence of DNA damage, and this association is enriched following UV irradiation. Furthermore, we find that the tethering of a Lac Repressor (LacR)-RHINO fusion protein to LacO repeats in chromatin of mammalian cells induces Chk1 phosphorylation in a Rad9- and Claspin-dependent manner. Lastly, the loss of RHINO partially abrogates ATR-Chk1 signaling following UV irradiation without impacting the interaction of the 9-1-1 clamp with TopBP1 or the loading of 9-1-1 onto chromatin. We conclude that RHINO is a bona fide regulator of ATR-Chk1 signaling in mammalian cells

Cycle threshold values are inversely associated with poorer outcomes in hospitalised patients with Covid-19:a prospective, observational cohort study conducted at a UK tertiary hospital

ABSTRACT: This single-centre observational study demonstrated that lower cycle threshold (Ct) values (indicating higher viral loads) on admission to hospital were associated with poorer outcomes in unvaccinated, hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Demographic and outcome data were collected prospectively for all adult patients who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 on admission to the University Hospitals North Midlands NHS Trust between 1 February and 1 July 2020. Nasopharyngeal swab samples were obtained, and a valid Ct value was determined for all patients using the Viasure reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assay, validated by Public Health England, on admission to hospital. Multi-variable logistic regression results based on data from 618 individuals demonstrated a significant inverse relationship between the odds of death and Ct values (adjusted odds ratio 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.92–0.98, P=0.001). The association remained highly significant after adjusting for known clinical risk factors for COVID-1

Design principles for maximizing photovoltage in metal-oxide-protected water-splitting photoanodes

Metal oxide protection layers for photoanodes may enable the development of large-scale solar fuel and solar chemical synthesis, but the poor photovoltages often reported so far will severely limit their performance. Here we report a novel observation of photovoltage loss associated with a charge extraction barrier imposed by the protection layer, and, by eliminating it, achieve photovoltages as high as 630mV, the maximum reported so far for water-splitting silicon photoanodes. The loss mechanism is systematically probed in metal-insulator-semiconductor Schottky junction cells compared to buried junction p(+) n cells, revealing the need to maintain a characteristic hole density at the semiconductor/insulator interface. A leaky-capacitor model related to the dielectric properties of the protective oxide explains this loss, achieving excellent agreement with the data. From these findings, we formulate design principles for simultaneous optimization of built-in field, interface quality, and hole extraction to maximize the photovoltage of oxide-protected water-splitting anodes

Impact of genetic variation on human CaMKK2 regulation by Ca2+ -calmodulin and multisite phosphorylation

The Ca2+-calmodulin dependent protein kinase kinase-2 (CaMKK2) is a key regulator of neuronal function and whole-body energy metabolism. Elevated CaMKK2 activity is strongly associated with prostate and hepatic cancers, whereas reduced CaMKK2 activity has been linked to schizophrenia and bipolar disease in humans. Here we report the functional effects of nine rare-variant point mutations that were detected in large-scale human genetic studies and cancer tissues, all of which occur close to two regulatory phosphorylation sites and the catalytic site on human CaMKK2. Four mutations (G87R, R139W, R142W and E268K) cause a marked decrease in Ca2+-independent autonomous activity, however S137L and P138S mutants displayed increased autonomous and Ca2+-CaM stimulated activities. Furthermore, the G87R mutant is defective in Thr85-autophosphorylation dependent autonomous activity, whereas the A329T mutation rendered CaMKK2 virtually insensitive to Ca2+-CaM stimulation. The G87R and R139W mutants behave as dominant-negative inhibitors of CaMKK2 signaling in cells as they block phosphorylation of the downstream substrate AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) in response to ionomycin. Our study provides insight into functionally disruptive, rare-variant mutations in human CaMKK2, which have the potential to influence risk and burden of disease associated with aberrant CaMKK2 activity in human populations carrying these variants

Anakinra reduces blood pressure and renal fibrosis in one kidney/DOCA/salt-induced hypertension

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a clinically-utilised IL-1 receptor antagonist, anakinra, reduces renal inflammation, structural damage and blood pressure (BP) in mice with established hypertension. METHODS: Hypertension was induced in male mice by uninephrectomy, deoxycorticosterone acetate (2.4mg/d,s.c.) and replacement of drinking water with saline (1K/DOCA/salt). Control mice received uninephrectomy, a placebo pellet and normal drinking water. 10days post-surgery, mice commenced treatment with anakinra (75mg/kg/d, i.p.) or vehicle (0.9% saline, i.p.) for 11 days. Systolic BP was measured by tail cuff while qPCR, immunohistochemistry and flow cytometry were used to measure inflammatory markers, collagen and immune cell infiltration in the kidneys. RESULTS: By 10 days post-surgery, 1K/DOCA/salt-treated mice displayed elevated systolic BP (148.3+/-2.4mmHg) compared to control mice (121.7+/-2.7mmHg; n=18, P\u3c0.0001). The intervention with anakinra reduced BP in 1K/DOCA/salt-treated mice by approximately 20mmHg (n=16, P\u3c0.05), but had no effect in controls. In 1K/DOCA/salt-treated mice, anakinra modestly reduced ( approximately 30%) renal expression of some (CCL5, CCL2; n=7-8; P\u3c0.05) but not all (ICAM-1, IL-6) inflammatory markers, and had no effect on immune cell infiltration (n=7-8, P \u3e 0.05). Anakinra reduced renal collagen content (n=6, P\u3c0.01) but paradoxically appeared to exacerbate the renal and glomerular hypertrophy (n=8-9, P\u3c0.001) that accompanied 1K/DOCA/salt-induced hypertension. CONCLUSION: Despite its anti-hypertensive and renal anti-fibrotic actions, anakinra had minimal effects on inflammation and leukocyte infiltration in mice with 1K/DOCA/salt-induced hypertension. Future studies will assess whether the anti-hypertensive actions of anakinra are mediated by protective actions in other BP-regulating or salt-handling organs such as the arteries, skin and brain

Discovery of a mammalian splice variant of myostatin that stimulates myogenesis

Myostatin plays a fundamental role in regulating the size of skeletal muscles. To date, only a single myostatin gene and no splice variants have been identified in mammals. Here we describe the splicing of a cryptic intron that removes the coding sequence for the receptor binding moiety of sheep myostatin. The deduced polypeptide sequence of the myostatin splice variant (MSV) contains a 256 amino acid N-terminal domain, which is common to myostatin, and a unique C-terminus of 65 amino acids. Western immunoblotting demonstrated that MSV mRNA is translated into protein, which is present in skeletal muscles. To determine the biological role of MSV, we developed an MSV over-expressing C2C12 myoblast line and showed that it proliferated faster than that of the control line in association with an increased abundance of the CDK2/Cyclin E complex in the nucleus. Recombinant protein made for the novel C-terminus of MSV also stimulated myoblast proliferation and bound to myostatin with high affinity as determined by surface plasmon resonance assay. Therefore, we postulated that MSV functions as a binding protein and antagonist of myostatin. Consistent with our postulate, myostatin protein was co-immunoprecipitated from skeletal muscle extracts with an MSV-specific antibody. MSV over-expression in C2C12 myoblasts blocked myostatin-induced Smad2/3-dependent signaling, thereby confirming that MSV antagonizes the canonical myostatin pathway. Furthermore, MSV over expression increased the abundance of MyoD, Myogenin and MRF4 proteins (P,0.05), which indicates that MSV stimulates myogenesis through the induction of myogenic regulatory factors. To help elucidate a possible role in vivo, we observed that MSV protein was more abundant during early post-natal muscle development, while myostatin remained unchanged, which suggests that MSV may promote the growth of skeletal muscles. We conclude that MSV represents a unique example of intra-genic regulation in which a splice variant directly antagonizes the biological activity of the canonical gene product