WHICH RISK FACTORS DRIVE OIL FUTURES PRICE CURVES? SPECULATION AND HEDGING IN THE SHORT AND LONG -TERM

Open House, ISM in Tachikawa, 2017.6.16統計数理研究所オープンハウス（立川）、H29.6.16ポスター発

Which Risk Factors Drive Oil Futures Price Curves Speculation and Hedging in the Short and Long-Term

Open House, ISM in Tachikawa, 2018.6.15統計数理研究所オープンハウス（立川）、H30.6.15ポスター発

HIV-positive status among surgeons - an ethical dilemma

HIV/AIDS is a manageable disease with a reasonable expectation that affected individuals might be able to experience both reduced mortality and morbidity. Within the socio-political context of the illness there has been a very strong emphasis on human rights issues, especially in relation to discrimination, which has seemingly been influenced more by emotion than science. This article explores and addresses the potential risk of an HIV-positive surgeon transmitting the virus to a patient. We argue that the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Health Professions Council of South Africa (HPCSA) guidelines are too restrictive, especially against a background of limited transmission risk, and hence that these guidelines could be more harmful than beneficial to our health systems

How Cervical Reconstruction Surgery Affects Global Spinal Alignment.

BACKGROUND:There have been no reports describing how cervical reconstruction surgery affects global spinal alignment (GSA). OBJECTIVE:To elucidate the effects of cervical reconstruction for GSA through a retrospective multicenter study. METHODS:Seventy-eight patients who underwent cervical reconstruction surgery for cervical kyphosis were divided into a Head-balanced group (n = 42) and a Trunk-balanced group (n = 36) according to the values of the C7 plumb line (PL). We also divided the patients into a cervical sagittal balanced group (CSB group, n = 18) and a cervical sagittal imbalanced group (CSI group, n = 60) based on the C2 PL-C7 PL distance. Various sagittal Cobb angles and the sagittal vertical axes were measured before and after surgery. RESULTS:Cervical alignment was improved to achieve occiput-trunk concordance (the distance between the center of gravity [COG] PL, which is considered the virtual gravity line of the entire body, and C7 PL < 30 mm) despite the location of COG PL and C7PL. A subsequent significant change in thoracolumbar alignment was observed in Head-balanced and CSI groups. However, no such significant change was observed in Trunk-balanced and CSB groups. We observed 1 case of transient and 1 case of residual neurological worsening. CONCLUSION:The primary goal of cervical reconstruction surgery is to achieve occiput-trunk concordance. Once it is achieved, subsequent thoracolumbar alignment changes occur as needed to harmonize GSA. Cervical reconstruction can restore both cervical deformity and GSA. However, surgeons must consider the risks and benefits in such challenging cases

Life Events, Social Support, and Blood Pressure Control in Low -Income Hypertensive Patients.

This study examined whether minor, chronic, and major stressors predicted poor blood pressure control in low-income hypertensives, and whether social support served as a moderator of this relation. Additionally, whether the construct of social support served as an independent predictor of poor blood pressure control was also examined. Participants included 231 patients randomly recruited from primary care medicine clinics at a public medical center. The sample included in this study was selected from an existing data set. The existing data set consisted of 432 patients randomly chosen on consecutive days from a family practice and an internal medicine medical clinic at a public teaching hospital. All participants were determined to have hypertension and categorized as having either controlled or uncontrolled hypertension by a primary care physician. Participants were administered a demographic form, the Weekly Stress Inventory (WSI), the Interpersonal Support Evaluation List (ISEL), questioned about their cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption, and their Body Mass Inventory (BMI) was assessed. Following recruitment, the WSI was administered bimonthly over the telephone for 10 months and in-person at a twelve-month follow-up interview. Participants were also administered the ISEL, and their BMI was reassessed at the twelve-month interview. Finally, participants were administered the Life Events Schedule (LES) at the six-month telephone interview and at the twelve-month follow-up interview. The sample consisted of predominantly African-American (82%), unemployed (62%), females (77%), with a mean age of 51 (+/-11) years. Mean income of the sample was +/-509.74 (+/-453.62). A total of 61 (26%) individuals had controlled blood pressure and 170 (74%) were uncontrolled. Stress was not found to predict blood pressure control in this sample of low-income individuals attending primary care clinics. Social support was also not found to predict blood pressure control, or moderate the association between stress and uncontrolled hypertension. However, a logistic regression revealed that prescription of a calcium channel antihypertensive medication and number of missed appointments were significant predictors of blood pressure control. Factors which may have contributed to the negative findings were identified, and suggestions are made for future research

Radiographic Outcomes of Adult Spinal Deformity Correction : A Critical Analysis of Variability and Failures Across Deformity Patterns

Study Design: Multicenter, prospective, consecutive, surgical case series from the International Spine Study Group. Objectives: To evaluate the effectiveness of surgical treatment in restoring spinopelvic (SP) alignment. Summary of Background Data: Pain and disability in the setting of adult spinal deformity have been correlated with global coronal alignment (GCA), sagittal vertical axis (SVA), pelvic incidence/lumbar lordosis mismatch (PI-LL), and pelvic tilt (PT). One of the main goals of surgery for adult spinal deformity is to correct these parameters to restore harmonious SP alignment. Methods: Inclusion criteria were operative patients (age greater than 18 years) with baseline (BL) and 1-year full-length X-rays. Thoracic and thoracolumbar Cobb angle and previous mentioned parameters were calculated. Each parameter at BL and 1 year was categorized as either pathological or normal. Pathologic limits were: Cobb greater than 30 , GCA greater than 40 mm, SVA greater than 40 mm, PI-LL greater than 10 , and PT greater than 20 . According to thresholds, corrected or worsened alignment groups of patients were identified and overall radiographic effectiveness of procedure was evaluated by combining the results from the coronal and sagittal planes. Fondation Paristech, ISS

A Multi-User Mobile GIS Solution for Documenting Large Surface Scatters: An Example from the Doring River, South Africa

This article discusses the development and implementation of a mobile GIS catch-and-release system for documenting large surface artifact scatters along the Doring River in South Africa. An integrated, cloud-based mobile GIS solution was built using a suite of ESRI ArcGIS applications with an aim to maximize the speed and breadth of techno-typological data capture, while minimizing data collection errors and post-processing requirements. The system was successfully implemented during the 2019 field season of the Doring River Archaeological Project. With the ability for project-specific customization and interchangeable hardware components, the system transcends geographic region and temporal focus. Moreover, the system accommodates connectivity limitations commonly faced by archaeologists seeking distributed database solutions. Other challenges embraced in the design include rotating personnel throughout a field season, scalability without large financial investment, and the ability to accommodate data collection needs of other components of the larger multi-disciplinary research project

Is Sacral Extension a Risk Factor for Early Proximal Junctional Kyphosis in Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery?

Study designRetrospective cohort study.PurposeTo investigate the role of sacral extension (SE) for the development of proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) in adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery.Overview of literatureThe development of PJK is multifactorial and different risk factors have been identified. Of these, there is some evidence that SE also affects the development of PJK, but data are insufficient.MethodsUsing a combined database comprising two propensity-matched groups of fusions following ASD surgery, one with fixation to S1 or S1 and the ilium (SE) and one without SE but with a lower instrumented vertebra of L5 or higher (lumbar fixation, LF), PJK and the role of further parameters were analyzed. The propensity-matched variables included age, the upper-most instrumented vertebra (UIV), preoperative sagittal alignment, and the baseline to one year change of the sagittal alignment.ResultsPropensity matching led to two groups of 89 patients each. The UIV, pelvic incidence minus lumbar lordosis, sagittal vertical axis, pelvic tilt, age, and body mass index were similar in both groups (p >0.05). The incidence of PJK at postoperative one year was similar for SE (30.3%) and LF (22.5%) groups (p =0.207). The PJK angle was comparable (p =0.963) with a change of -8.2° (SE) and -8.3° (LF) from the preoperative measures (p =0.954). A higher rate of PJK after SE (p =0.026) was found only in the subgroup of patients with UIV levels between T9 and T12.ConclusionsInstrumentation to the sacrum with or without iliac extension did not increase the overall risk of PJK. However, an increased risk for PJK was found after SE with UIV levels between T9 and T12