Machine learning based prediction of COVID-19 mortality suggests repositioning of anticancer drug for treating severe cases

Despite available vaccinations COVID-19 case numbers around the world are still growing, and effective medications against severe cases are lacking. In this work, we developed a machine learning model which predicts mortality for COVID-19 patients using data from the multi-center ‘Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-infected patients’ (LEOSS) observational study (>100 active sites in Europe, primarily in Germany), resulting into an AUC of almost 80%. We showed that molecular mechanisms related to dementia, one of the relevant predictors in our model, intersect with those associated to COVID-19. Most notably, among these molecules was tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2), a protein that has been patented as drug target in Alzheimer's Disease but also genetically associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes. We experimentally verified that anti-cancer drugs Sorafenib and Regorafenib showed a clear anti-cytopathic effect in Caco2 and VERO-E6 cells and can thus be regarded as potential treatments against COVID-19. Altogether, our work demonstrates that interpretation of machine learning based risk models can point towards drug targets and new treatment options, which are strongly needed for COVID-19

Impact of CYP2B6 983T>C polymorphism on non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor plasma concentrations in HIV-infected patients

Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate the frequency of CYP2B6 polymorphisms (according to ethnicity) and the influence of heterozygosity and homozygosity on plasma concentrations of efavirenz and nevirapine. Methods Following written informed consent, 225 Caucasians and 146 Blacks were recruited from the German Competence Network for HIV/AIDS. Plasma concentrations of efavirenz and nevirapine were assessed by HPLC, and genotyping for 516G>T, 983T>C and 1459T>C polymorphisms in CYP2B6 was conducted by real-time PCR-based allelic discrimination. Results The minor allele frequency for 516G>T, 983T>C and 1459T>C was 0.29, 0 and 0.08 in Caucasians and 0.34, 0.07 and 0.02 in Blacks, respectively. Two Black patients with the 983C allele receiving efavirenz were identified and both were withdrawn from therapy within 1 week of sampling due to toxicity. In multivariate analyses, efavirenz and nevirapine plasma concentrations were significantly associated with 983T>C (P T (P T was not associated with plasma concentrations of either drug (P > 0.05 for both drugs). Conclusions This is the first report that the 983T>C genotype (part of the CYP2B6*18 haplotype) impacts on nevirapine plasma concentrations and the first study to assess the impact of 983C homozygosity on efavirenz concentrations. These data have implications for administration of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors to Black patient

COVID-19 severity and thrombo-inflammatory response linked to ethnicity

Although there is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with adverse outcomes in certain ethnic groups, the association of disease severity and risk factors such as comorbidities and biomarkers with racial disparities remains undefined. This retrospective study between March 2020 and February 2021 explores COVID-19 risk factors as predictors for patients’ disease progression through country comparison. Disease severity predictors in Germany and Japan were cardiovascular-associated comorbidities, dementia, and age. We adjusted age, sex, body mass index, and history of cardiovascular disease comorbidity in the country cohorts using a propensity score matching (PSM) technique to reduce the influence of differences in sample size and the surprisingly young, lean Japanese cohort. Analysis of the 170 PSM pairs confirmed that 65.29% of German and 85.29% of Japanese patients were in the uncomplicated phase. More German than Japanese patients were admitted in the complicated and critical phase. Ethnic differences were identified in patients without cardiovascular comorbidities. Japanese patients in the uncomplicated phase presented a suppressed inflammatory response and coagulopathy with hypocoagulation. In contrast, German patients exhibited a hyperactive inflammatory response and coagulopathy with hypercoagulation. These differences were less pronounced in patients in the complicated phase or with cardiovascular diseases. Coagulation/fibrinolysis-associated biomarkers rather than inflammatory-related biomarkers predicted disease severity in patients with cardiovascular comorbidities: platelet counts were associated with severe illness in German patients. In contrast, high D-dimer and fibrinogen levels predicted disease severity in Japanese patients. Our comparative study indicates that ethnicity influences COVID-19-associated biomarker expression linked to the inflammatory and coagulation (thrombo-inflammatory) response. Future studies will be necessary to determine whether these differences contributed to the less severe disease progression observed in Japanese COVID-19 patients compared with those in Germany

Covid-19 triage in the emergency department 2.0: how analytics and AI transform a human-made algorithm for the prediction of clinical pathways

The Covid-19 pandemic has pushed many hospitals to their capacity limits. Therefore, a triage of patients has been discussed controversially primarily through an ethical perspective. The term triage contains many aspects such as urgency of treatment, severity of the disease and pre-existing conditions, access to critical care, or the classification of patients regarding subsequent clinical pathways starting from the emergency department. The determination of the pathways is important not only for patient care, but also for capacity planning in hospitals. We examine the performance of a human-made triage algorithm for clinical pathways which is considered a guideline for emergency departments in Germany based on a large multicenter dataset with over 4,000 European Covid-19 patients from the LEOSS registry. We find an accuracy of 28 percent and approximately 15 percent sensitivity for the ward class. The results serve as a benchmark for our extensions including an additional category of palliative care as a new label, analytics, AI, XAI, and interactive techniques. We find significant potential of analytics and AI in Covid-19 triage regarding accuracy, sensitivity, and other performance metrics whilst our interactive human-AI algorithm shows superior performance with approximately 73 percent accuracy and up to 76 percent sensitivity. The results are independent of the data preparation process regarding the imputation of missing values or grouping of comorbidities. In addition, we find that the consideration of an additional label palliative care does not improve the results

Provirus reactivation is impaired in HIV-1 infected individuals on treatment with dasatinib and antiretroviral therapy

The latent viral reservoir formed by HIV-1, mainly in CD4 + T cells, is responsible for the failure of antiretroviral therapy (ART) to achieve a complete elimination of the virus in infected individuals. We previously determined that CD4 + T cells from individuals with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) on treatment with dasatinib are resistant to HIV-1 infection ex vivo. The main mechanism for this antiviral effect is the preservation of SAMHD1 activity. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the impact of dasatinib on the viral reservoir of HIV-infected individuals with CML who were on simultaneous treatment with ART and dasatinib. Due to the low estimated incidence of HIV-1 infection and CML (1:65,000), three male individuals were recruited in Spain and Germany. These individuals had been on treatment with standard ART and dasatinib for median 1.3 years (IQR 1.3-5.3 years). Reservoir size and composition in PBMCs from these individuals was analyzed in comparison with HIV-infected individuals on triple ART regimen and undetectable viremia. The frequency of latently infected cells was reduced more than 5-fold in these individuals. The reactivation of proviruses from these cells was reduced more than 4-fold and, upon activation, SAMHD1 phosphorylation was reduced 40-fold. Plasma levels of the homeostatic cytokine IL-7 and CD4 effector subpopulations TEM and TEMRA in peripheral blood were also reduced. Therefore, treatment of HIV-infected individuals with dasatinib as adjuvant of ART could disturb the reservoir reactivation and reseeding, which might have a beneficial impact to reduce its size

Incidence and risk factors for relapses in HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma as observed in the German HIV-related lymphoma cohort study

Outcome of HIV-infected patients with AIDS-related lymphomas has improved during recent years. However, data on incidence, risk factors, and outcome of relapses in AIDS-related lymphomas after achieving complete remission are still limited. This prospective observational multicenter study includes HIV-infected patients with biopsy-or cytology-proven malignant lymphomas since 2005. Data on HIV infection and lymphoma characteristics, treatment and outcome were recorded. For this analysis, AIDS-related lymphomas patients in complete remission were analyzed in terms of their relapse-free survival and potential risk factors for relapses. In total, 254 of 399 (63.7%) patients with AIDS-related lymphomas reached a complete remission with their first-line chemotherapy. After a median follow up of 4.6 years, 5-year overall survival of the 254 patients was 87.8% (Standard Error 3.1%). Twenty-nine patients relapsed (11.4%). Several factors were independently associated with a higher relapse rate, including an unclassifiable histology, a stage III or IV according to the Ann Arbor Staging System, no concomitant combined antiretroviral therapy during chemotherapy and R-CHOP-based compared to more intensive chemotherapy regimens in Burkitt lymphomas. In conclusion, complete remission and relapse rates observed in our study are similar to those reported in HIV-negative non-Hodgkin lymphomas. These data provide further evidence for the use of concomitant combined antiretroviral therapy during chemotherapy and a benefit from more intensive chemotherapy regimens in Burkitt lymphomas. Modifications to the chemotherapy regimen appear to have only a limited impact on relapse rate

Cytochrome P450 2B6 (CYP2B6) and constitutive androstane receptor (CAR) polymorphisms are associated with early discontinuation of efavirenz-containing regimens

Objectives Cytochrome P450 2B6 (CYP2B6) is responsible for the metabolic clearance of efavirenz and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CYP2B6 gene are associated with efavirenz pharmacokinetics. Since the constitutive androstane receptor (CAR) and the pregnane X receptor (PXR) correlate with CYP2B6 in liver, and a CAR polymorphism (rs2307424) and smoking correlate with efavirenz plasma concentrations, we investigated their association with early (<3 months) discontinuation of efavirenz therapy. Methods Three hundred and seventy-three patients initiating therapy with an efavirenz-based regimen were included (278 white patients and 95 black patients; 293 male). DNA was extracted from whole blood and genotyping for CYP2B6 (516G → T, rs3745274), CAR (540C → T, rs2307424) and PXR (44477T → C, rs1523130; 63396C → T, rs2472677; and 69789A → G, rs763645) was conducted. Binary logistic regression using the backwards method was employed to assess the influence of SNPs and demographics on early discontinuation. Results Of the 373 patients, 131 withdrew from therapy within the first 3 months. Black ethnicity [odds ratio (OR) = 0.27; P = 0.0001], CYP2B6 516TT (OR = 2.81; P = 0.006), CAR rs2307424 CC (OR = 1.92; P = 0.007) and smoking status (OR = 0.45; P = 0.002) were associated with discontinuation within 3 months. Conclusions These data indicate that genetic variability in CYP2B6 and CAR contributes to early treatment discontinuation for efavirenz-based antiretroviral regimens. Further studies are now required to define the clinical utility of these association

Etravirine pharmacokinetics in HIV-infected pregnant women

__Background__ The study goal was to describe etravirine pharmacokinetics during pregnancy and postpartum in HIV-infected women. __Methods__ IMPAACT P1026s and PANNA are on-going, non-randomized, open-label, parallel-group, multi-center phase-IV prospective studies in HIV-infected pregnant women. Intensive steady-state 12-h pharmacokinetic profiles were performed from 2nd trimester through postpartum. Etravirine was measured at two labs using validated ultra performance liquid chromatography (detection limits: 0.020 and 0.026 mcg/mL). __Results__ Fifteen women took etravirine 200 mg twice-daily. Etravirine AUC0-12 was higher in the 3rd trimester compared to paired postpartum data by 34% (median 8.3 vs. 5.3 mcg*h/mL, p = 0.068). Etravirine apparent oral clearance was significantly lower in the 3rd trimester of pregnancy compared to paired postpartum data by 52% (median 24 vs. 38 L/h, p = 0.025). The median ratio of cord blood to maternal plasma concentration at delivery was 0.52 (range: 0.19-4.25) and no perinatal transmission occurred. __Conclusion__ Etravirine apparent oral clearance is reduced and exposure increased during the third trimester of pregnancy. Based on prior dose-ranging and safety data, no dose adjustment is necessary for maternal health but the effects of etravirine in utero are unknown. Maternal health and infant outcomes should be closely monitored until further infant safety data are available. __Clinical Trial registration:__ The IMPAACT protocol P1026s and PANNA study are registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under NCT00042289 and NCT00825929

Contribution of alcohol use in HIV/hepatitis C virus co-infection to all-cause and cause-specific mortality: A collaboration of cohort studies

Among persons with HIV (PWH), higher alcohol use and having hepatitis C virus (HCV) are separately associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether the association between alcohol use and mortality among PWH is modified by HCV. Data were combined from European and North American cohorts of adult PWH who started antiretroviral therapy (ART). Self-reported alcohol use data, collected in diverse ways between cohorts, were converted to grams/day. Eligible PWH started ART during 2001-2017 and were followed from ART initiation for mortality. Interactions between the associations of baseline alcohol use (0, 0.1-20.0, >20.0 g/day) and HCV status were assessed using multivariable Cox models. Of 58,769 PWH, 29,711 (51%), 23,974 (41%) and 5084 (9%) self-reported alcohol use of 0 g/day, 0.1-20.0 g/day, and > 20.0 g/day, respectively, and 4799 (8%) had HCV at baseline. There were 844 deaths in 37,729 person-years and 2755 deaths in 443,121 person-years among those with and without HCV, respectively. Among PWH without HCV, adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for mortality were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.08-1.29) for 0.0 g/day and 1.84 (1.62-2.09) for >20.0 g/day compared with 0.1-20.0 g/day. This J-shaped pattern was absent among those with HCV: aHRs were 1.00 (0.86-1.17) for 0.0 g/day and 1.64 (1.33-2.02) for >20.0 g/day compared with 0.1-20.0 g/day (interaction p < .001). Among PWH without HCV, mortality was higher in both non-drinkers and heavy drinkers compared with moderate alcohol drinkers. Among those with HCV, mortality was higher in heavy drinkers but not non-drinkers, potentially due to differing reasons for not drinking (e.g. illness) between those with and without HCV

Drug Interactions in the Treatment of Malignancy in HIV-Infected Patients

The number of patients with HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) requiring treatment for malignancy is increasing worldwide. Concurrent treatment of HIV and malignancy is complicated by unpredictable drug-drug interactions, which can cause potentially life-threatening toxicities and ineffective treatment of either disease. This article aims to provide a practical approach to drug interactions and their management in this context to help deliver effective and safe treatment of both the malignancy and HIV. (C) 2017 S. Karger GmbH, Freibur