Regional Currency Arrangements: Insights from Europe

This paper focuses on the requirements and features of a successful monetary union on the basis of the optimum currency area theory, the “logical roadmap” for integration as proposed by Balassa as well as the economic and institutional framework of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The analysis suggests that monetary union is contingent upon high economic integration and strong political commitment. However, political union is not an ex-ante requirement. Outside factors such as systemic shocks and globalization seem to speed up the pooling of sovereignty in the economic domain. A firm commitment to stability-oriented monetary and fiscal policies is a precondition for gaining credibility and trust within and outside a monetary union. Last, but not least, convergence criteria, fiscal rules and strong institutions are necessary to help ensure and monitor the participants’ compliance. However, the European experience is not a blueprint for regional integration that can be directly and entirely applied to other regions.Economic and Monetary Integration; International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions; Monetary Policy and Central Banking; Macroeconomic Policy Formation

A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events

Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold process, (ii) an overshooting in the stability of the system and (iii) a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2), in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance) and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations). We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle

Plio-Pleistocene changes in water mass exchange and erosional inputs in the Fram Strait

We determined the isotopic composition of neodymium (Nd) and lead (Pb) of past seawater to reconstruct water mass exchange and erosional input between the Arctic Ocean and the Norwegian-Greenland Seas over the past 5 Ma. For this purpose, sediments of ODP site 911 (leg 151) located at 900 m water depth on the Yermak Plateau in the Fram Strait were used. The paleo-seawater variability of Nd and Pb isotopes was extracted from the sea water-derived metal oxide coatings on the sediment particles following the leaching method of Gutjahr et al. (2007). All radiogenic isotope data were acquired by Multi-Collector (MC) ICP-MS. The site 911 stratigraphy of Knies et al. (2009) was applied. Surface sediment Sr and Nd isotope data, as well as downcore Sr isotope data obtained on the same leaches are close to seawater and confirm the seawater origin of the Nd and Pb isotope signatures. The deep water Nd isotope time series extracted from site 911 was in general more radiogenic ("Nd = -7.5 to -10) than present day deep water ("Nd = -9.8 to -11.8) in the area of the Fram Strait (Andersson et al., 2008) and does not show a systematic trend with time. In contrast, the radiogenic isotope composition of Pb evolved from 206Pb/204Pb ratios around 18.7 to more radiogenic values around 19.2 between 2 Ma and today. The data indicate that mixing of water masses from the Arctic Ocean and the Norwegian-Greenland Seas has controlled the Nd isotope signatures of deep waters on the Yermak Plateau over the past 5 Ma. Prior to 1.7 Ma the Nd isotope signatures on the Yermak Plateau were less radiogenic than waters from the same depth in the central Arctic Ocean (Haley et al., 2008) pointing to a greater influence from the Norwegian-Greenland Seas. After 1.7 Ma the central Arctic and Yermak Plateau data have varied around similar values indicating water mass mixing overall similar to today. In contrast, the Pb isotope composition of deep waters in the Fram Strait appears to have been dominated by weathering inputs from glacially weathering old continental landmasses, such as Greenland or parts of Svalbard since 2 Ma. A similar control over the Pb isotope evolution of seawater since the onset of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation was recorded by ferromanganese crusts that grew from North Atlantic DeepWater in the western North Atlantic. References: Gutjahr, M., Frank, M., Stirling, C.H., Klemm, V., van de Flierdt, T. and Halliday, A.N. (2007): Reliable extraction of a deepwater trace metal isotope signal from Fe-Mn oxyhydroxide coatings of marine sediments.- Chemical Geology 242, 351-370 Haley B. A., M. Frank, R.F. Spielhagen and A. Eisenhauer (2008): Influence of brine formation on Arctic Ocean circulation over the past 15 million years. Nature Geoscience 1, 68–72 Andersson, P.S., Porcelli, D., Frank, M., Björk, G., Dahlqvist, R. and Gustafsson, Ö. (2008): Neodymium isotopes in seawater from the Barents Sea and Fram Strait Arctic- Atlantic gateways.- Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 72, 2854-2867 Knies, J., J. Matthiessen, C. Vogt, J.S. Laberg, B.O. Hjelstuen, M.Smelror, E. Larsen, K. Andreassen, T. Eidvin and T.O. Vorren (2009): The Plio-Pleistocene glaciation of the Barents Sea–Svalbard region: a new model based on revised chronostratigraphy - Quaternary Science Reviews 28, 9-10, 812-82

Examining the clinical utility of the modified Alarm Distress Baby Scale (m-ADBB) for the detection of early signs of Autism Spectrum Disorder

Background / Aim Signs of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) can be observed in the first two years of life. However early detection of ASD remains challenging, partly because no reliable and easy to use routine screening instrument for infants and toddlers is currently available to clinicians. Some early ASD related deficits in social communication and interaction are also typical of sustained social withdrawal in infants and toddlers. The current study aims to test whether a brief observational screening instrument for social withdrawal in infants, the modified Alarm Distress Baby Scale (m-ADBB), may be clinically useful for detection of ASD in the first two years of life. It is hypothesised, that children with ASD will score higher on the m-ADBB than typically developing (TD) children, indicating more symptoms of social withdrawal. Method Home-video recordings of children with ASD and of TD children from approximately age 12 month and 24 month were analysed using the m-ADBB. Results Home-videos of 10 children with ASD and 10 TD children were available at each age. Children with a diagnosis of ASD scored statistically significantly higher on the m-ADBB than TD children at 12 month (Z=-2.54; p=0.023; r=-0.57) and at 24 month (Z=-2.40; p=0.023; r=-0.54). Five of ten children with ASD met the m-ADBB criterion for social withdrawal in their 12 month videos, and four out of ten in their 24 month videos. Using a lower cut-off score increased detection rates (7 at 12 month; 8 at 24 month). False positive rates were low at both ages and for both cut-off scores (range 1 to 3 out of 10). Conclusion Observing only five social withdrawal behaviours as operationalized by the m-ADBB appears to be useful in flagging possible presence of ASD during the first two years of life. The scale’s sensitivity and specificity for ASD detection needs to be established in a larger sample

Hotel Manager Strategies to Reduce Voluntary Employee Turnover

The voluntary turnover rate in the United States hotel industry is among the highest of all industries, resulting in lost revenue. The purpose of this multiple case study was to explore strategies hotel managers use to reduce voluntary employee turnover. The targeted population consisted of 6 managers from hotel businesses operating in the MidAtlantic region of the United States who successfully used strategies to reduce voluntary employee turnover. Job embeddedness theory, this study\u27s theoretical framework, was used to describe reasons employees remained in organizations. Data were gathered via semistructured interviews, observational notes, and public business records regarding turnover or retention programs. Yinʼs 5-step analysis model was used to compile, deconstruct, reassemble, interpret, and draw conclusions from the data. Four themes emerged from data analysis: organizational support with property-level flexibility, feeling valued for individual contributions to the team, opportunities for training or advancement, and relationships with managers and peers. The results of this study may contribute to positive social change by providing strategies to reduce employee turnover in a historically low-wage industry, which may result in raising the quality of life for hotel employees, their families, and communities