Understanding competing risks: a simulation point of view

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Competing risks methodology allows for an event-specific analysis of the single components of composite time-to-event endpoints. A key feature of competing risks is that there are as many hazards as there are competing risks. This is not always well accounted for in the applied literature.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We advocate a simulation point of view for understanding competing risks. The hazards are envisaged as momentary event forces. They jointly determine the event time. Their relative magnitude determines the event type. 'Empirical simulations' using data from a recent study on cardiovascular events in diabetes patients illustrate subsequent interpretation. The method avoids concerns on identifiability and plausibility known from the latent failure time approach.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The 'empirical simulations' served as a proof of concept. Additionally manipulating baseline hazards and treatment effects illustrated both scenarios that require greater care for interpretation and how the simulation point of view aids the interpretation. The simulation algorithm applied to real data also provides for a general tool for study planning.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There are as many hazards as there are competing risks. All of them should be analysed. This includes estimation of baseline hazards. Study planning must equally account for these aspects.</p

Impact of vitamin A on clinical outcomes in haemodialysis patients

Background. Patients on maintenance haemodialysis treatment experience an excessive risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. The vitamin A concentration is known to be higher in these patients compared to the general population where elevated vitamin A concentrations are associated with adverse outcome. The impact of vitamin A on morbidity and mortality in end-stage renal disease patients is controversial and is the topic of this study. Methods. We analysed plasma retinol and retinol-binding protein 4 (RBP4) in 1177 diabetic haemodialysis patients, who participated in the German Diabetes and Dialysis Study (median follow-up 4 years). By Cox regression analyses hazard ratios (HRs) were determined for pre-specified, adjudicated end points according to baseline concentrations. Results. Patients had a mean age of 66 ± 8 years, mean retinol and RBP4 concentrations of 3.28 (0.71-7.44) and 4.02 (1.28-10.1) μmol/L, respectively. Patients with retinol concentrations in the first quartile (3.9 μmol/L; HR 1.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43-2.30]. There was a strong association between low retinol and the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD, HR 2.22, 95% CI 1.41-3.50) and fatal infection (HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.26-3.82). Patients with RBP4 concentrations in the lowest quartile (<3.0 μmol/L) were more likely to die of any cause (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.14-1.80), experience SCD (HR 1.97, 95% CI 1.28-3.03) and cardiovascular events (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.10-1.85). Conclusion. This large cohort study shows a strong association of low retinol and RBP4 concentrations with SCD and all-cause mortality in diabetic haemodialysis patient

Effect of atorvastatin on inflammation and outcome in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus on hemodialysis

Statins have multiple effects, including anti-inflammatory actions, lowering C-reactive protein levels, and reducing coronary events. We performed a post hoc analysis of the randomized placebo-controlled 4D Study that had evaluated the efficacy and safety of atorvastatin in 1255 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who were on maintenance hemodialysis. Here we determined the relationship between atorvastatin treatment, C-reactive protein, and the outcome of patients who had pre-specified and adjudicated endpoints of all-cause mortality, composite vascular endpoint, myocardial infarction, sudden death, and stroke. Atorvastatin had no significant effect on the risk of composite vascular endpoint or death relative to placebo in any quartile of baseline C-reactive protein. These baseline levels were not significantly different between the treated and placebo group and remained stable at 6 months on atorvastatin but significantly increased in those patients on placebo. All of the patients with baseline C-reactive protein in the fourth quartile had a significantly increased risk of deaths and in composite vascular endpoint compared to patients in the first quartile. The mean value of two consecutive C-reactive protein measurements was associated with significant increases in the risk of sudden death, stroke, all-cause mortality and composite vascular endpoint. Our results show that C-reactive protein was highly predictive of outcome, but atorvastatin treatment was not associated with reduced relative risks in the composite vascular endpoint or mortality in patients on hemodialysis with or without inflammation

Homoarginine, heart failure, and sudden cardiac death in haemodialysis patients

Aims Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a major contributor to the excess mortality of patients on maintenance dialysis. Homoarginine deficiency may lead to decreased nitric oxide availability and endothelial dysfunction. Based on this rationale we assessed whether homoarginine deficiency is a risk factor for SCD in dialysis patients. Methods and results This study examined the association of homoarginine with cardiovascular outcomes in 1255 diabetic haemodialysis patients from the German diabetes and dialysis study. During a median of 4 years of follow-up, hazard ratios (HR) (95% CI) for reaching the following pre-specified, adjudicated endpoints were determined: SCD, myocardial infarction, stroke, death due to heart failure, and combined cardiovascular events. There was a strong association of low homoarginine concentrations with the presence of congestive heart failure and left ventricular hypertrophy as well as increased levels of brain natriuretic peptide. Per unit decrease in homoarginine, the risk of SCD increased three-fold (HR 3.1, 95% CI 2.0–4.9), attenuating slightly in multivariate models (HR 2.4; 95% CI 1.5–3.9). Patients in the lowest homoarginine quintile experienced a more than two-fold increased risk of SCD, and more than three-fold increased risk of heart failure death than patients in the highest quintile, which accounted for the high incidence of combined cardiovascular events. Low homoarginine showed a trend towards increased risk of stroke, however, myocardial infarction was not meaningfully affected. Conclusion Low homoarginine is a strong risk factor for SCD and death due to heart failure in haemodialysis patients. Further studies are needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms, offering the potential to develop new interventional strategies

Predicting erythropoietin resistance in hemodialysis patients with type 2 diabetes

&lt;p&gt;Background: Resistance to ESAs (erythropoietin stimulating agents) is highly prevalent in hemodialysis patients with diabetes and associated with an increased mortality. The aim of this study was to identify predictors for ESA resistance and to develop a prediction model for the risk stratification in these patients.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods: A post-hoc analysis was conducted of the 4D study, including 1015 patients with type 2 diabetes undergoing hemodialysis. Determinants of ESA resistance were identified by univariate logistic regression analyses. Subsequently, multivariate models were performed with stepwise inclusion of significant predictors from clinical parameters, routine laboratory and specific biomarkers.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Results: In the model restricted to clinical parameters, male sex, shorter dialysis vintage, lower BMI, history of CHF, use of ACE-inhibitors and a higher heart rate were identified as independent predictors of ESA resistance. In regard to routine laboratory markers, lower albumin, lower iron saturation, higher creatinine and higher potassium levels were independently associated with ESA resistance. With respect to specific biomarkers, higher ADMA and CRP levels as well as lower Osteocalcin levels were predictors of ESA resistance.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: Easily obtainable clinical parameters and routine laboratory parameters can predict ESA resistance in diabetic hemodialysis patients with good discrimination. Specific biomarkers did not meaningfully further improve the risk prediction of ESA resistance. Routinely assessed data can be used in clinical practice to stratify patients according to the risk of ESA resistance, which may help to assign appropriate treatment strategies.&lt;/p&gt

Effect of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system blockade in adults with diabetes mellitus and advanced chronic kidney disease not on dialysis : a systematic review and meta-analysis

The presumed superiority of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS)-blocking agents over other antihypertensive agents in patients with diabetes to delay development of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) has recently been challenged. In addition, there is ongoing uncertainty whether RAAS-blocking agents reduce mortality and/or delay ESKD in patients with diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3-5. In this subgroup, there might be an expedited need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) when RAAS-blocking agents are used. We conducted a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of at least 6-months duration in adult patients with diabetes who also have non-dialysis CKD stages 3-5. RCTs comparing single RAAS-blocking agents to placebo or alternative antihypertensive agents were included. Outcomes of interest were allcause mortality, cardiovascular morbidity, progression of renal function, ESKD and adverse events. A total of nine trials (n = 9797 participants with CKD stages 3-5) fit our inclusion criteria. There was no difference between the RAAS group and control group regarding all-cause mortality {relative risk [RR] = 0.97 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.85-1.10]}, cardiovascular mortality [RR = 1.03 (95% CI 0.75-1.41)] and adverse events [RR = 1.05 (95% CI 0.89-1.25)]. There was a trend for a favourable effect for non-fatal cardiovascular events [RR = 0.90 (95% CI 0.81-1.00)] and a lower risk of the composite endpoint need for RRT/doubling of serum creatinine [RR = 0.81 (95% CI 0.70-0.92)] in the RAAS-blocking agents group versus the control group. We found evidence that in patients with diabetes mellitus and CKD stages 3-5, treatment with RAAS-blocking agents did not result in a clear survival advantage. The effect on renal outcomes did depend on the selected outcome measure. However, we did not find evidence that the use of RAAS-blocking agents expedited the need for RRT in patients with CKD stages 3-5

Renal function decline in older men and women with advanced CKD:Results from the EQUAL study

INTRODUCTION: Understanding the mechanisms underlying the differences in renal decline between men and women may improve sex-specific clinical monitoring and management. To this end, we aimed to compare the slope of renal function decline in older men and women in chronic kidney disease (CKD) Stages 4 and 5, taking into account informative censoring related to the sex-specific risks of mortality and dialysis initiation. METHODS: The European QUALity Study on treatment in advanced CKD (EQUAL) study is an observational prospective cohort study in Stages 4 and 5 CKD patients ≥65 years not on dialysis. Data on clinical and demographic patient characteristics were collected between April 2012 and December 2018. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration equation. eGFR trajectory by sex was modelled using linear mixed models, and joint models were applied to deal with informative censoring. RESULTS: We included 7801 eGFR measurements in 1682 patients over a total of 2911 years of follow-up. Renal function declined by 14.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 12.9–15.1%] on average each year. Renal function declined faster in men (16.2%/year, 95% CI 15.9–17.1%) compared with women (9.6%/year, 95% CI 6.3–12.1%), which remained largely unchanged after accounting for various mediators and for informative censoring due to mortality and dialysis initiation. Diabetes was identified as an important determinant of renal decline specifically in women. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, renal function declines faster in men compared with women, which remained similar after adjustment for mediators and despite a higher risk of informative censoring in men. We demonstrate a disproportional negative impact of diabetes specifically in women

Altered vitamin K biodistribution and metabolism in experimental and human chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is accompanied with extensive cardiovascular calcification, in part correlating with functional vitamin K deficiency. Here, we sought to determine causes for vitamin K deficiency beyond reduced dietary intake. Initially, vitamin K uptake and distribution into circulating lipoproteins after a single administration of vitamin K1 plus K2 (menaquinone 4 and menaquinone 7, respectively) was determined in patients on dialysis therapy and healthy individuals. The patients incorporated very little menaquinone 7 but more menaquinone 4 into high density lipoprotein (HDL) and low-density lipoprotein particles than did healthy individuals. In contrast to healthy persons, HDL particles from the patients could not be spiked with menaquinone 7 in vitro and HDL uptake was diminished in osteoblasts. A reduced carboxylation activity (low vitamin K activity) of uremic HDL particles spiked with menaquinone 7 vs. that of controls was confirmed in a bioassay using human primary vascular smooth muscle cells. Kidney menaquinone 4 tissue levels were reduced in 5/6-nephrectomized versus sham-operated C57BL/6 mice after four weeks of a vitamin K rich diet. From the analyzed enzymes involved in vitamin K metabolism, kidney HMG-CoA reductase protein was reduced in both rats and patients with CKD. In a trial on the efficacy and safety of atorvastatin in 1051 patients with type 2 diabetes receiving dialysis therapy, no pronounced vitamin K deficiency was noted. However, the highest levels of PIVKA-II (biomarker of subclinical vitamin K deficiency) were noted when a statin was combined with a proton pump inhibitor. Thus, profound disturbances in lipoprotein mediated vitamin K transport and metabolism in uremia suggest that menaquinone 7 supplementation to patients on dialysis therapy has reduced efficacy

Converting from face-to-face to postal follow-up and its effects on participant retention, response rates and errors:lessons from the EQUAL study in the UK

Background: Prospective cohort studies are challenging to deliver, with one of the main difficulties lying in retention of participants. The need to socially distance during the COVID-19 pandemic has added to this challenge. The pre-COVID-19 adaptation of the European Quality (EQUAL) study in the UK to a remote form of follow-up for efficiency provides lessons for those who are considering changing their study design. Methods: The EQUAL study is an international prospective cohort study of patients ≥65 years of age with advanced chronic kidney disease. Initially, patients were invited to complete a questionnaire (SF-36, Dialysis Symptom Index and Renal Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire) at research clinics every 3–6 months, known as “traditional follow-up” (TFU). In 2018, all living patients were invited to switch to “efficient follow-up” (EFU), which used an abbreviated questionnaire consisting of SF-12 and Dialysis Symptom Index. These were administered centrally by post. Response rates were calculated using returned questionnaires as a proportion of surviving invitees, and error rates presented as the average percentage of unanswered questions or unclear answers, of total questions in returned questionnaires. Response and error rates were calculated 6-monthly in TFU to allow comparisons with EFU. Results: Of the 504 patients initially recruited, 236 were still alive at the time of conversion to EFU; 111 of these (47%) consented to the change in follow-up. In those who consented, median TFU was 34 months, ranging from 0 to 42 months. Their response rates fell steadily from 88% (98/111) at month 0 of TFU, to 20% (3/15) at month 42. The response rate for the first EFU questionnaire was 60% (59/99) of those alive from TFU. With this improvement in response rates, the first EFU also lowered errors to baseline levels seen in early follow-up, after having almost trebled throughout traditional follow-up. Conclusions: Overall, this study demonstrates that administration of shorter follow-up questionnaires by post rather than in person does not negatively impact patient response or error rates. These results may be reassuring for researchers who are trying to limit face-to-face contact with patients during the COVID-19 pandemic