Reliable estimation of prediction uncertainty for physico-chemical property models

The predictions of parameteric property models and their uncertainties are sensitive to systematic errors such as inconsistent reference data, parametric model assumptions, or inadequate computational methods. Here, we discuss the calibration of property models in the light of bootstrapping, a sampling method akin to Bayesian inference that can be employed for identifying systematic errors and for reliable estimation of the prediction uncertainty. We apply bootstrapping to assess a linear property model linking the 57Fe Moessbauer isomer shift to the contact electron density at the iron nucleus for a diverse set of 44 molecular iron compounds. The contact electron density is calculated with twelve density functionals across Jacob's ladder (PWLDA, BP86, BLYP, PW91, PBE, M06-L, TPSS, B3LYP, B3PW91, PBE0, M06, TPSSh). We provide systematic-error diagnostics and reliable, locally resolved uncertainties for isomer-shift predictions. Pure and hybrid density functionals yield average prediction uncertainties of 0.06-0.08 mm/s and 0.04-0.05 mm/s, respectively, the latter being close to the average experimental uncertainty of 0.02 mm/s. Furthermore, we show that both model parameters and prediction uncertainty depend significantly on the composition and number of reference data points. Accordingly, we suggest that rankings of density functionals based on performance measures (e.g., the coefficient of correlation, r2, or the root-mean-square error, RMSE) should not be inferred from a single data set. This study presents the first statistically rigorous calibration analysis for theoretical Moessbauer spectroscopy, which is of general applicability for physico-chemical property models and not restricted to isomer-shift predictions. We provide the statistically meaningful reference data set MIS39 and a new calibration of the isomer shift based on the PBE0 functional.Comment: 49 pages, 9 figures, 7 table

Varespladib and cardiovascular events in patients with an acute coronary syndrome: the VISTA-16 randomized clinical trial

IMPORTANCE: Secretory phospholipase A2(sPLA2) generates bioactive phospholipid products implicated in atherosclerosis. The sPLA2inhibitor varespladib has favorable effects on lipid and inflammatory markers; however, its effect on cardiovascular outcomes is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effects of sPLA2inhibition with varespladib on cardiovascular outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A double-blind, randomized, multicenter trial at 362 academic and community hospitals in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, India, and North America of 5145 patients randomized within 96 hours of presentation of an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) to either varespladib (n = 2572) or placebo (n = 2573) with enrollment between June 1, 2010, and March 7, 2012 (study termination on March 9, 2012). INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomized to receive varespladib (500 mg) or placebo daily for 16 weeks, in addition to atorvastatin and other established therapies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary efficacy measurewas a composite of cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), nonfatal stroke, or unstable angina with evidence of ischemia requiring hospitalization at 16 weeks. Six-month survival status was also evaluated. RESULTS: At a prespecified interim analysis, including 212 primary end point events, the independent data and safety monitoring board recommended termination of the trial for futility and possible harm. The primary end point occurred in 136 patients (6.1%) treated with varespladib compared with 109 patients (5.1%) treated with placebo (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25; 95%CI, 0.97-1.61; log-rank P = .08). Varespladib was associated with a greater risk of MI (78 [3.4%] vs 47 [2.2%]; HR, 1.66; 95%CI, 1.16-2.39; log-rank P = .005). The composite secondary end point of cardiovascular mortality, MI, and stroke was observed in 107 patients (4.6%) in the varespladib group and 79 patients (3.8%) in the placebo group (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.02-1.82; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In patients with recent ACS, varespladib did not reduce the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events and significantly increased the risk of MI. The sPLA2inhibition with varespladib may be harmful and is not a useful strategy to reduce adverse cardiovascular outcomes after ACS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01130246. Copyright 2014 American Medical Association. All rights reserved

Fetal Alcohol Syndrome: A Case Report of Neuropsychological, MRI, and EEG Assessment of Two Children

Neuropsychological, neuroanatomical, and electrophysiological data are presented on two subjects with fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS). Both boys had intelligence quotients in the mentally deficient range and were found to have several other severe, specific deficits. Magnetic resonance imaging showed abnormalities of the corpus callosum, and reductions in the size of the basal ganglia and thalamic structures. No focal abnormalities were noted in the electroencephalogram records, although the electroencephalograms of both boys were moderately abnormal for their age group. A multidisciplinary approach to the study of FAS, hopefully will lead to a more unified concept of the disorder and perhaps indicate specific areas of vulnerability

Accelerating Community College Graduation Rates: A Benefit–Cost Analysis

This article reports a benefit–cost evaluation of the Accelerated Study in Associate Programs (ASAP) of the City University of New York (CUNY). ASAP was designed to accelerate associate degree completion within 3 years of degree enrollment at CUNY’s community colleges. The program evaluation revealed that the completion rate for the examined cohort increased from 24.1% to 54.9%, and cost per graduate declined considerably (Levin & Garcia, 2012; Linderman & Kolenovic, 2012). The returns on investment to the taxpayer include the benefits from higher tax revenues and lower costs of spending on public health, criminal justice, and public assistance. For each dollar of investment in ASAP by taxpayers, the return was $3 to$4. For each additional graduate, the taxpayer gained an amount equal to a certificate of deposit with a value of $146,000 (net of the costs of the investment). Based on these estimated returns, a cohort of 1,000 students enrolled in ASAP would generate net fiscal benefits for the taxpayer of more than$46 million relative to enrolling in the conventional degree program. ASAP results demonstrate that an effective educational policy can generate returns to the taxpayer that vastly exceed the public investment required

Strongly exchange-coupled triplet pairs in an organic semiconductor

From biological complexes to devices based on organic semiconductors, spin interactions play a key role in the function of molecular systems. For instance, triplet-pair reactions impact operation of organic light-emitting diodes as well as photovoltaic devices. Conventional models for triplet pairs assume they interact only weakly. Here, using electron spin resonance, we observe long-lived, strongly-interacting triplet pairs in an organic semiconductor, generated via singlet fission. Using coherent spin-manipulation of these two-triplet states, we identify exchange-coupled (spin-2) quintet complexes co-existing with weakly coupled (spin-1) triplets. We measure strongly coupled pairs with a lifetime approaching 3 µs and a spin coherence time approaching 1 µs, at 10 K. Our results pave the way for the utilization of high-spin systems in organic semiconductors.Gates-Cambridge Trust, Winton Programme for the Physics of Sustainability, Freie Universität Berlin within the Excellence Initiative of the German Research Foundation, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (Grant ID: EP/G060738/1)This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group at http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nphys3908

The RESOLVE Survey Atomic Gas Census and Environmental Influences on Galaxy Gas Reservoirs

We present the H i mass inventory for the REsolved Spectroscopy Of a Local VolumE (RESOLVE) survey, a volume-limited, multi-wavelength census of >1500 z = 0 galaxies spanning diverse environments and complete in baryonic mass down to dwarfs of ~109 ${M}_{\odot }$. This first 21 cm data release provides robust detections or strong upper limits (1.4M H i 1012 ${M}_{\odot }$) halos, suggesting that gas stripping and/or starvation may be induced by interactions with larger halos or the surrounding cosmic web. We find that the detailed relationship between G/S and environment varies when we examine different subvolumes of RESOLVE independently, which we suggest may be a signature of assembly bias

Baseline characteristics of patients in the reduction of events with darbepoetin alfa in heart failure trial (RED-HF)

<p>Aims: This report describes the baseline characteristics of patients in the Reduction of Events with Darbepoetin alfa in Heart Failure trial (RED-HF) which is testing the hypothesis that anaemia correction with darbepoetin alfa will reduce the composite endpoint of death from any cause or hospital admission for worsening heart failure, and improve other outcomes.</p> <p>Methods and results: Key demographic, clinical, and laboratory findings, along with baseline treatment, are reported and compared with those of patients in other recent clinical trials in heart failure. Compared with other recent trials, RED-HF enrolled more elderly [mean age 70 (SD 11.4) years], female (41%), and black (9%) patients. RED-HF patients more often had diabetes (46%) and renal impairment (72% had an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2). Patients in RED-HF had heart failure of longer duration [5.3 (5.4) years], worse NYHA class (35% II, 63% III, and 2% IV), and more signs of congestion. Mean EF was 30% (6.8%). RED-HF patients were well treated at randomization, and pharmacological therapy at baseline was broadly similar to that of other recent trials, taking account of study-specific inclusion/exclusion criteria. Median (interquartile range) haemoglobin at baseline was 112 (106–117) g/L.</p> <p>Conclusion: The anaemic patients enrolled in RED-HF were older, moderately to markedly symptomatic, and had extensive co-morbidity.</p&gt