Long-Term Stability of an Area-Reversible Atom-Interferometer Sagnac Gyroscope

We report on a study of the long-term stability and absolute accuracy of an atom interferometer gyroscope. This study included the implementation of an electro-optical technique to reverse the vector area of the interferometer for reduced systematics and a careful study of systematic phase shifts. Our data strongly suggests that drifts less than 96 $\mu$deg/hr are possible after empirically removing shifts due to measured changes in temperature, laser intensity, and several other experimental parameters.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, submitted to PR

Trophic amplification of climate warming

Ecosystems can alternate suddenly between contrasting persistent states due to internal processes or external drivers. It is important to understand the mechanisms by which these shifts occur, especially in exploited ecosystems. There have been several abrupt marine ecosystem shifts attributed either to fishing, recent climate change or a combination of these two drivers. We show that temperature has been an important driver of the trophodynamics of the North Sea, a heavily fished marine ecosystem, for nearly 50 years and that a recent pronounced change in temperature established a new ecosystem dynamic regime through a series of internal mechanisms. Using an end-to-end ecosystem approach that included primary producers, primary, secondary and tertiary consumers, and detritivores, we found that temperature modified the relationships among species through nonlinearities in the ecosystem involving ecological thresholds and trophic amplifications. Trophic amplification provides an alternative mechanism to positive feedback to drive an ecosystem towards a new dynamic regime, which in this case favours jellyfish in the plankton and decapods and detritivores in the benthos. Although overfishing is often held responsible for marine ecosystem degeneration, temperature can clearly bring about similar effects. Our results are relevant to ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM), seen as the way forward to manage exploited marine ecosystems

Data mining: a tool for detecting cyclical disturbances in supply networks.

Disturbances in supply chains may be either exogenous or endogenous. The ability automatically to detect, diagnose, and distinguish between the causes of disturbances is of prime importance to decision makers in order to avoid uncertainty. The spectral principal component analysis (SPCA) technique has been utilized to distinguish between real and rogue disturbances in a steel supply network. The data set used was collected from four different business units in the network and consists of 43 variables; each is described by 72 data points. The present paper will utilize the same data set to test an alternative approach to SPCA in detecting the disturbances. The new approach employs statistical data pre-processing, clustering, and classification learning techniques to analyse the supply network data. In particular, the incremental k-means clustering and the RULES-6 classification rule-learning algorithms, developed by the present authors’ team, have been applied to identify important patterns in the data set. Results show that the proposed approach has the capability automatically to detect and characterize network-wide cyclical disturbances and generate hypotheses about their root cause

Using Rasch analysis to form plausible health states amenable to valuation: the development of CORE-6D from CORE-OM in order to elicit preferences for common mental health problems

Purpose: To describe a new approach for deriving a preference-based index from a condition specific measure that uses Rasch analysis to develop health states. Methods: CORE-OM is a 34-item instrument monitoring clinical outcomes of people with common mental health problems. CORE-OM is characterised by high correlation across its domains. Rasch analysis was used to reduce the number of items and response levels in order to produce a set of unidimensionally-behaving items, and to generate a credible set of health states corresponding to different levels of symptom severity using the Rasch item threshold map. Results: The proposed methodology resulted in the development of CORE-6D, a 2-dimensional health state description system consisting of a unidimensionally-behaving 5-item emotional component and a physical symptom item. Inspection of the Rasch item threshold map of the emotional component helped identify a set of 11 plausible health states, which, combined with the physical symptom item levels, will be used for the valuation of the instrument, resulting in the development of a preference-based index. Conclusions: This is a useful new approach to develop preference-based measures where the domains of a measure are characterised by high correlation. The CORE-6D preference-based index will enable calculation of Quality Adjusted Life Years in people with common mental health problems

Including the sub-grid scale plume rise of vegetation fires in low resolution atmospheric transport models

International audienceWe describe and begin to evaluate a parameterization to include the vertical transport of hot gases and particles emitted from biomass burning in low resolution atmospheric-chemistry transport models. This sub-grid transport mechanism is simulated by embedding a 1-D cloud-resolving model with appropriate lower boundary conditions in each column of the 3-D host model. Through assimilation of remote sensing fire products, we recognize which columns have fires. Using a land use dataset appropriate fire properties are selected. The host model provides the environmental conditions, allowing the plume rise to be simulated explicitly. The derived height of the plume is then used in the source emission field of the host model to determine the effective injection height, releasing the material emitted during the flaming phase at this height. Model results are compared with CO aircraft profiles from an Amazon basin field campaign and with satellite data, showing the huge impact that this mechanism has on model performance. We also show the relative role of each main vertical transport mechanisms, shallow and deep moist convection and the pyro-convection (dry or moist) induced by vegetation fires, on the distribution of biomass burning CO emissions in the troposphere

Modern clinician-initiated clinical trials to determine optimal therapy for multidrug-resistant gram-negative infections

Treatment options for multidrug-resistant (MDR) gram-negative infection are growing. However, postregistration, pragmatic, and clinician-led clinical trials in this field are few, recruit small sample sizes, and experience deficiencies in design and operations. MDR gram-negative therapeutic trials are often inefficient, only evaluating a single antibiotic or strategy at a time. Novel clinical trial designs offer potential solutions by attempting to obtain clinically meaningful conclusions at the end or during a trial, for many treatment strategies, simultaneously. An integrated, consensus approach to MDR gram-negative infection trial design is crucial

Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Experimental and modelling work suggests a strong dependence of olive flowering date on spring temperatures. Since airborne pollen concentrations reflect the flowering phenology of olive populations within a radius of 50 km, they may be a sensitive regional indicator of climatic warming. We assessed this potential sensitivity with phenology models fitted to flowering dates inferred from maximum airborne pollen data. Of four models tested, a thermal time model gave the best fit for Montpellier, France, and was the most effective at the regional scale, providing reasonable predictions for 10 sites in the western Mediterranean. This model was forced with replicated future temperature simulations for the western Mediterranean from a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). The GCM temperatures rose by 4·5 °C between 1990 and 2099 with a 1% per year increase in greenhouse gases, and modelled flowering date advanced at a rate of 6·2 d per °C. The results indicated that this long-term regional trend in phenology might be statistically significant as early as 2030, but with marked spatial variation in magnitude, with the calculated flowering date between the 1990s and 2030s advancing by 3–23 d. Future monitoring of airborne olive pollen may therefore provide an early biological indicator of climatic warming in the Mediterranean