Cold event in the South Atlantic Bight during summer of 2003: Model simulations and implications

A set of model simulations are used to determine the principal forcing mechanisms that resulted in anomalously cold water in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) in the summer of 2003. Updated mass field and elevation boundary conditions from basin-scale Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) simulations are compared to climatological forcing to provide offshore and upstream influences in a one-way nesting sense. Model skill is evaluated by comparing model results with observations of velocity, water level, and surface and bottom temperature. Inclusion of realistic atmospheric forcing, river discharge, and improved model dynamics produced good skill on the inner shelf and midshelf. The intrusion of cold water onto the shelf occurred predominantly along the shelf-break associated with onshore flow in the southern part of the domain north of Cape Canaveral (29° to 31.5°). The atmospheric forcing (anomalously strong and persistent upwelling-favorable winds) was the principal mechanism driving the cold event. Elevated river discharge increased the level of stratification across the inner shelf and midshelf and contributed to additional input of cold water into the shelf. The resulting pool of anomalously cold water constituted more than 50% of the water on the shelf in late July and early August. The excess nutrient flux onto the shelf associated with the upwelling was approximated using published nitrate-temperature proxies, suggesting increased primary production during the summer over most of the SAB shelf

Trade-offs between risk of predation and starvation in larvae make the shelf break an optimal spawning location for Atlantic Bluefin tuna

Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABT) (Thunnus thynnus) travel long distances to spawn in oligotrophic regions of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) which suggests these regions offer some unique benefit to offspring survival. To better understand how larval survival varies within the GoM a spatially explicit, Lagrangian, individual-based model was developed that simulates dispersal and mortality of ABT early life stages within realistic predator and prey fields during the spawning periods from 1993 to 2012. The model estimates that starvation is the largest cumulative source of mortality associated with an early critical period. However, elevated predation on older larvae is identified as the main factor limiting survival to late postflexion. As a result, first-feeding larvae have higher survival on the shelf where food is abundant, whereas older larvae have higher survival in the open ocean with fewer predators, making the shelf break an optimal spawning area. The modeling framework developed in this study explicitly simulates both physical and biological factors that impact larval survival and hence could be used to support ecosystem based management efforts for ABT under current and future climate conditions.Postprin

Progress in operational modeling in support of oil spill response

Following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon accident of a massive blow-out in the Gulf of Mexico, scientists from government, industry, and academia collaborated to advance oil spill modeling and share best practices in model algorithms, parameterizations, and application protocols. This synergy was greatly enhanced by research funded under the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), a 10-year enterprise that allowed unprecedented collection of observations and data products, novel experiments, and international collaborations that focused on the Gulf of Mexico, but resulted in the generation of scientific findings and tools of broader value. Operational oil spill modeling greatly benefited from research during the GoMRI decade. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of the related scientific advances, remaining challenges, and future outlook. Two main modeling components are discussed: Ocean circulation and oil spill models, to provide details on all attributes that contribute to the success and limitations of the integrated oil spill forecasts. These forecasts are discussed in tandem with uncertainty factors and methods to mitigate them. The paper focuses on operational aspects of oil spill modeling and forecasting, including examples of international operational center practices, observational needs, communication protocols, and promising new methodologies

An assessment of the Indian Ocean mean state and seasonal cycle in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations

We present an analysis of annual and seasonal mean characteristics of the Indian Ocean circulation and water masses from 16 global ocean–sea-ice model simulations that follow the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE) interannual protocol (CORE-II). All simulations show a similar large-scale tropical current system, but with differences in the Equatorial Undercurrent. Most CORE-II models simulate the structure of the Cross Equatorial Cell (CEC) in the Indian Ocean. We uncover a previously unidentified secondary pathway of northward cross-equatorial transport along 75 °E, thus complementing the pathway near the Somali Coast. This secondary pathway is most prominent in the models which represent topography realistically, thus suggesting a need for realistic bathymetry in climate models. When probing the water mass structure in the upper ocean, we find that the salinity profiles are closer to observations in geopotential (level) models than in isopycnal models. More generally, we find that biases are model dependent, thus suggesting a grouping into model lineage, formulation of the surface boundary, vertical coordinate and surface salinity restoring. Refinement in model horizontal resolution (one degree versus degree) does not significantly improve simulations, though there are some marginal improvements in the salinity and barrier layer results. The results in turn suggest that a focus on improving physical parameterizations (e.g. boundary layer processes) may offer more near-term advances in Indian Ocean simulations than refined grid resolution

Turbulent flow regimes behind a coastal cape in a stratified and rotating environment

A numerical study aimed at investigating the roles of both the stratification and topographic slope in generation of turbulent coherent structures in the lee of capes is presented. We consider a steady barotropic current impinging on an obstacle in a rotating and linearly stratified environment. The obstacle is a triangular prism and represents an idealized headland extending from the coast. Numerical experiments are conducted at constant Rossby number Ro = 0.06 , varying the Burger number, Bu, and the obstacle slope, α . Flow regime diagrams in the Bu– α space are determined. For Bu < 0.1 , vertical movement over the obstacle is enhanced and a fully attached regime with pronounced internal waves is established. For 0.1 ⩽ Bu < 1 , fluid parcels flow more around the obstacle than over it. Flow separation occurs and small tip eddies start to shed. For Bu ⩾ 1 , tip eddies merge to form larger eddies in the lee of the cape. We find that previous laboratory results cannot be used for gentler slopes, since bottom flow regimes are strongly dependent on α when Bu ⩾ 1 . The form drag coefficient exerted by the cape is at least two orders of magnitude larger than the one due to skin friction. It increases with increasing Burger numbers and decreasing slopes. When no separation occurs (low Bu), the increase with decreasing slopes is the result of the mixing associated with hydraulic phenomena. For intermediate and high Bu, form drag coefficients reach larger values as a result of the boundary layer mixing associated with flow separation. We put forth an empirical parametrization of form drag in the Bu– α space

The role of rough topography in mediating impacts of bottom drag in eddying ocean circulation models

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/152466/1/jpo_2017_bottomfrictionandtopography.pdfDescription of jpo_2017_bottomfrictionandtopography.pdf : Main articl

Developments in ocean climate modelling

This paper presents some research developments in primitive equation ocean models which could impact the ocean component of realistic global coupled climate models aimed at large-scale, low frequency climate simulations and predictions. It is written primarily to an audience of modellers concerned with the ocean component of climate models, although not necessarily experts in the design and implementation of ocean model algorithms