Was the Little Ice Age more or less El Niño-like than the Medieval Climate Anomaly? Evidence from hydrological and temperature proxy data

This is the final version of the article. Available from European Geosciences Union via the DOI in this record.The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important source of global climate variability on interannual timescales and has substantial environmental and socio-economic consequences. However, it is unclear how it interacts with large-scale climate states over longer (decadal to centennial) timescales. The instrumental ENSO record is too short for analysing long-term trends and variability and climate models are unable to accurately simulate past ENSO states. Proxy data are used to extend the record, but different proxy sources have produced dissimilar reconstructions of long-term ENSO-like climate change, with some evidence for a temperature–precipitation divergence in ENSO-like climate over the past millennium, in particular during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; AD  ∼  800–1300) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD  ∼  1400–1850). This throws into question the stability of the modern ENSO system and its links to the global climate, which has implications for future projections. Here we use a new statistical approach using weighting based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) to create two new large-scale reconstructions of ENSO-like climate change derived independently from precipitation proxies and temperature proxies. The method is developed and validated using model-derived pseudo-proxy experiments that address the effects of proxy dating error, resolution, and noise to improve uncertainty estimations. We find no evidence that temperature and precipitation disagree over the ENSO-like state over the past millennium, but neither do they agree strongly. There is no statistically significant difference between the MCA and the LIA in either reconstruction. However, the temperature reconstruction suffers from a lack of high-quality proxy records located in ENSO-sensitive regions, which limits its ability to capture the large-scale ENSO signal. Further expansion of the palaeo-database and improvements to instrumental, satellite, and model representations of ENSO are needed to fully resolve the discrepancies found among proxy records and establish the long-term stability of this important mode of climatic variability.Many thanks to the Databases of the NOAA World Data Center for Paleoclimatology and Pangaea and all contributing authors for making available the proxy data used in this study. The GPCP and 20th Century Reanalysis V2 data were provided by the NOAA/ESRL/OAR-PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their website at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) program, and the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. The GPCP combined precipitation data were developed and computed by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center’s Laboratory for Atmospheres as a contribution to the GEWEX Global Precipitation Climatology Project. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups listed in Sect. B2 for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. L. Henke was supported by a University of Exeter Climate Change and Sustainable Futures studentship

Salt-marsh testate amoebae as precise and widespread indicators of sea-level change

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Salt-marsh sediments are routinely used to reconstruct sea-level changes over past millennia. These reconstructions bridge an important gap between geological and instrumental sea-level records, and provide insights into the role of atmospheric, oceanic, climatic and anthropogenic sea-level drivers, thereby improving understanding of contemporary and future sea-level changes. Salt-marsh foraminifera, diatoms and testate amoebae are three of the proxies capable of accurately reconstructing former sea level over decadal to millennial timescales. Datasets of surface assemblages are collated along elevational gradients to provide modern analogues that can be used to infer former marsh-surface elevations from fossil assemblages. Testate amoebae are the most recently developed proxy and existing studies suggest that they are at least as precise as the two other proxies. This study provides a synthesis of sea-level research using testate amoebae and collates and analyses existing surface datasets of intertidal salt-marsh testate amoebae from sites throughout the North Atlantic. We test the hypothesis that intertidal testate amoebae demonstrate cosmopolitan intertidal zonation across wide geographical areas in a way that is unique to this proxy. Testate amoebae assemblages are harmonised under a unified taxonomy and standardised into a single basin-wide training set suitable for reconstructing sea-level changes from salt-marsh sediments across the North Atlantic. Transfer functions are developed using regression modelling and show comparable performance values to published local training sets of foraminifera, diatoms and testate amoebae. When used to develop recent (last 100 years) sea-level reconstructions for sites in Norway and Quebec, Canada, the testate amoebae-based transfer function demonstrated prediction uncertainties of ± 0.26 m and ± 0.10 m respectively. These uncertainties equate to 10% and 11% of the tidal ranges at each site, which is of comparable precision to other published sea-level reconstructions based on foraminifera or diatoms. There is great scope for further developing intertidal testate amoebae as precise sea-level indicators and their application should be tested at sites beyond the North Atlantic.Our work on salt-marsh testate amoebae was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (grant GR9/03426 to WRG and DJC) and by Plymouth University studentships (to RLB and TLN). Datasets from the Magdalen Islands were originally collected using funding from the Coastal Geoscience Research Chair at the Université du Québec à Rimouski

Editorial: Quaternary revolutions

PublishedEditorialJournalEditorialThe QRA@50 meeting was organized by a team of people including the editors, John Catt, Catherine Souch, Tom Hill, Danni Pearce and a team of postgraduates and staff from the Royal Geographical Society-Institute of British Geographers (RGS-IBG). It was made possible by support from a number of sponsors, including RGS-IBG, van Walt, Beta Analytic Ltd, the Natural History Museum, Wiley-Blackwell and C3W (Climate Change Consortium of Wales). We would like to thank the reviewers of all the papers for their comments and suggested improvements to the papers

Was there a '4.2ka event' in Great Britain and Ireland? Evidence from the peatland record

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data from several regions around the world show evidence of a multi-centennial climatic event occurring approximately 4200cal yr BP (4.2ka). Whilst the climatic change and/or impact of the 4.2ka event is clear in certain regions, such as western Asia, evidence for the event has yet to be fully evaluated in northwest Europe. This study presents high-resolution, multi-proxy palaeoclimate records from sites in Northern Ireland, ideally located for an objective examination of the nature of the event in Great Britain and Ireland within the broader context of mid-Holocene climate change c. 6.5-2.5ka. The peatlands of northwest Europe possess considerable potential for the examination of climatic change in the North Atlantic region, demonstrated by the range of palaeohydrological proxy data generated during this study (peat humification, plant macrofossil and testate amoebae analyses) supported by a high-resolution chronology (including comprehensive AMS 14 C and tephrochronology). The inter-site testate amoebae reconstructions appear coherent and were combined to produce a regional climatic record, in marked contrast to the plant macrofossil and peat humification records that appear climatically complacent. The testate amoebae reconstruction, however, provides no compelling evidence for a 4.2ka event signal and is consistent with previously reported studies from across northwest Europe, suggesting the origin and impact of this event is spatially complex. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.This research was carried out while T.P.R. held a UK Natural Environment Research Council studentship (NE/G524328/1) at the University of Exeter.

Salt-Enrichment Impact on Biomass Production in a Natural Population of Peatland Dwelling Arcellinida and Euglyphida (Testate Amoebae)

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this recordUnicellular free-living microbial eukaryotes of the order Arcellinida (Tubulinea; Amoebozoa) and Euglyphida (Cercozoa; SAR), commonly termed testate amoebae, colonise almost every freshwater ecosystem on Earth. Patterns in the distribution and productivity of these organisms are strongly linked to abiotic conditions—particularly moisture availability and temperature—however, the ecological impacts of changes in salinity remain poorly documented. Here, we examine how variable salt concentrations affect a natural community of Arcellinida and Euglyphida on a freshwater sub-Antarctic peatland. We principally report that deposition of wind-blown oceanic salt-spray aerosols onto the peatland surface corresponds to a strong reduction in biomass and to an alteration in the taxonomic composition of communities in favour of generalist taxa. Our results suggest novel applications of this response as a sensitive tool to monitor salinisation of coastal soils and to detect salinity changes within peatland palaeoclimate archives. Specifically, we suggest that these relationships could be used to reconstruct millennial scale variability in salt-spray deposition—a proxy for changes in wind-conditions—from sub-fossil communities of Arcellinida and Euglyphida preserved in exposed coastal peatlands.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

The 5.2 ka climate event: Evidence from stable isotope and multi-proxy palaeoecological peatland records in Ireland

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Evidence for a major climate event at 5.2 ka has been reported globally and is associated with considerable societal disruption, but is poorly characterised in northwest Europe. This event forms part of a broader period of re-organisation in the Earth's ocean-atmosphere circulation system between 6 and 5 ka. This study tests the nature and timing of the event in northwest Europe, a region highly sensitive to change in meridional overturning circulation and mid-latitude westerly airflow. Here we report three high-resolution Irish multi-proxy records obtained from ombrotrophic peatlands that have robust chronological frameworks. We identify the 5.2 ka event by a sustained decrease in δ 18 O cellulose at all three sites, with additional and parallel changes in δ 13 C cellulose and palaeoecological (testate amoebae, plant macrofossil and humification) data from two sites in northern Ireland. Data from Sluggan Moss demonstrate a particularly coherent shift towards wetter conditions. These data support the hypothesis that the event was caused by a prolonged period of positive North Atlantic Oscillation conditions, resulting in pervasive cyclonic weather patterns across northwest Europe, increasing precipitation over Ireland.This research was carried out while T.P.R. held UK Natural Environment Research Council studentship at the University of Exeter (NE/G524328/1) and T.J.D held a studentship at the University of Southampton tied to the NERC RAPID Programme (NER/T/S/2002/00460). Radiocarbon support was provided by the NERC 14C Steering Committee (Allocation No.: 1523.0910), the NERC RAPID Programme and the Irish Quaternary Association via the IQUA Bill Watts 14Chrono award

Vertical zonation of testate amoebae in the Elatia Mires, northern Greece : palaeoecological evidence for a wetland response to recent climate change or autogenic processes?

The Elatia Mires of northern Greece are unique ecosystems of high conservation value. The mires are climatically marginal and may be sensitive to changing hydroclimate, while northern Greece has experienced a significant increase in aridity since the late twentieth century. To investigate the impact of recent climatic change on the hydrology of the mires, the palaeoecological record was investigated from three near-surface monoliths extracted from two sites. Testate amoebae were analysed as sensitive indicators of hydrology. Results were interpreted using transfer function models to provide quantitative reconstructions of changing water table depth and pH. AMS radiocarbon dates and 210Pb suggest the peats were deposited within the last c. 50 years, but do not allow a secure chronology to be established. Results from all three profiles show a distinct shift towards a more xerophilic community particularly noted by increases in Euglypha species. Transfer function results infer a distinct lowering of water tables in this period. A hydrological response to recent climate change is a tenable hypothesis to explain this change; however other possible explanations include selective test decay, vertical zonation of living amoebae, ombrotrophication and local hydrological change. It is suggested that a peatland response to climatic change is the most probable hypothesis, showing the sensitivity of marginal peatlands to recent climatic change

Corrigendum: Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this record.The article to which this is the corrigendum is in ORE at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/21766A coding error in the Monte Carlo procedure for the determination of critical values in running correlation analysis (presented in Supplementary Data S8) has been brought to the attention of the authors.[...

Seasonal climate drivers of peak NDVI in a series of Arctic peatlands

This is the final version. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record. Changes in plant cover and productivity are important in driving Arctic soil carbon dynamics and sequestration, especially in peatlands. Warming trends in the Arctic are known to have resulted in changes in plant productivity, extent and community composition, but more data are still needed to improve understanding of the complex controls and processes involved. Here we assess plant productivity response to climate variability between 1985 and 2020 by comparing peak growing season NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index data from Landsat 5 and 7), to seasonal-average weather data (temperature, precipitation and snow-melt timing) in nine locations containing peatlands in high- and low-Arctic regions in Europe and Canada. We find that spring (correlation 0.36 for peat dominant and 0.39 for mosaic; MLR coefficient 0.20 for peat, 0.29 for mosaic), summer (0.47, 0.42; 0.18, 0.17) and preceding-autumn (0.35, 0.25; 0.33, 0.27) temperature are linked to peak growing season NDVI at our sites between 1985 and 2020, whilst spring snow melt timing (0.42, 0.45; 0.25, 0.32) is also important, and growing season water availability is likely site-specific. According to regression trees, a warm preceding autumn (September-October-November) is more important than a warm summer (June-July-August) in predicting the highest peak season productivity in the peat-dominated areas. Mechanisms linked to soil processes may explain the importance of previous-Autumn conditions on productivity. We further find that peak productivity increases in these Arctic peatlands are comparable to those in the surrounding non-peatland-dominant vegetation. Increased productivity in and around Arctic peatlands suggests a potential to increased soil carbon sequestration with future warming, but further work is needed to test whether this is evident in observations of recent peat accumulation and extent.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Low-salinity transitions drive abrupt microbial response to sea-level change

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: Authors have data permissions for all data used in this study. Data deriving from published sources are referenced in the manuscript. The datasets used in this study are available from the British Antarctic Survey Polar Data Centre, and the figshare repository (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.16573346.v1).The salinisation of many coastal ecosystems is underway and is expected to continue into the future because of sea-level rise and storm intensification brought about by the changing climate. However, the response of soil microbes to increasing salinity conditions within coastal environments is poorly understood, despite their importance for nutrient cascading, carbon sequestration and wider ecosystem functioning. Here, we demonstrate deterioration in the productivity of a top-tier microbial group (testate amoebae) with increasing coastal salinity, which we show to be consistent across phylogenetic groups, salinity gradients, environment types and latitude. Our results show that microbial changes occur in the very early stages of marine inundation, presaging more radical changes in soil and ecosystem function and providing an early warning of coastal salinisation that could be used to improve coastal planning and adaptation.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Sécurité publique du QuébecUniversity of Exete