Using data mining to predict success in a weight loss trial

Background: Traditional methods for predicting weight loss success use regression approaches, which make the assumption that the relationships between the independent and dependent (or logit of the dependent) variable are linear. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between common demographic and early weight loss variables to predict weight loss success at 12 months without making this assumption. Methods: Data mining methods (decision trees, generalised additive models and multivariate adaptive regression splines), in addition to logistic regression, were employed to predict: (i) weight loss success (defined as ≥5%) at the end of a 12-month dietary intervention using demographic variables [body mass index (BMI), sex and age]; percentage weight loss at 1 month; and (iii) the difference between actual and predicted weight loss using an energy balance model. The methods were compared by assessing model parsimony and the area under the curve (AUC). Results: The decision tree provided the most clinically useful model and had a good accuracy (AUC 0.720 95% confidence interval = 0.600-0.840). Percentage weight loss at 1 month (≥0.75%) was the strongest predictor for successful weight loss. Within those individuals losing ≥0.75%, individuals with a BMI (≥27 kg m-2) were more likely to be successful than those with a BMI between 25 and 27 kg m-2. Conclusions: Data mining methods can provide a more accurate way of assessing relationships when conventional assumptions are not met. In the present study, a decision tree provided the most parsimonious model. Given that early weight loss cannot be predicted before randomisation, incorporating this information into a post randomisation trial design may give better weight loss results

Ionization of hydrogen and hydrogenic ions by antiprotons

Presented here is a description of the ionization of hydrogen and hydrogenic ions by antiproton-impact, based on very large scale numerical solutions of the time-dependent Schr\"odinger equation in three spatial dimensions and on analysis of the topology of the electronic eigenenergy surfaces in the plane of complex internuclear distance. Comparison is made with other theories and very recent measurements.Comment: RevTex document, 11 pages, 4 Postscript figures are available from the authors, in press Phys. Rev. Let

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located windradiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulationmodels and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemispheremidlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range WeatherForecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2,the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and thefree-running climate Max Planck Institute–Earth System Model–Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out inboth temporal and spectral dom ains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and windradiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviationsincrease with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, thestandard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. Thelargest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates.Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15–20 days. Atshorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a generalgood agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potentialof the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integratesvarious measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamicalcoupling for numerical weather prediction applications

Constraints on Lorentz violation from clock-comparison experiments

Constraints from clock-comparison experiments on violations of Lorentz and CPT symmetry are investigated in the context of a general Lorentz-violating extension of the standard model. The experimental signals are shown to depend on the atomic and ionic species used as clocks. Certain experiments usually regarded as establishing comparable bounds are in this context sensitive to different types of Lorentz violation. Some considerations relevant to possible future measurements are presented. All these experiments are potentially sensitive to Lorentz-violating physics at the Planck scale.Comment: accepted for publication in Physical Review D; scheduled for issue of December 1, 199

Reducing recurrent care proceedings: initial evidence from new interventions

The English family justice system faces a crisis of recurrence. As many as one in four birth mothers involved in public law care proceedings in English family courts are likely to reappear in a subsequent set of proceedings within seven years. These mothers are involved in up to one-third of total care applications, as they are – by definition – linked to more than one child . Few birth mothers experiencing the removal of a child to care are offered any follow-up support, despite often facing multiple challenges including poverty, addiction, domestic violence and mental health problems. Since 2011, however, a number of new services have been established to begin to address their unmet needs. This article summarises the findings of the first academic-led evaluation of two of these initiatives. Presenting evidence from a mixed-methods evaluative study, it concludes that the new services were able to foster relationships that ‘worked’ in reducing recurrent proceedings. None of the women engaging with the services went on to experience what could be described as a ‘rapid repeat pregnancy’ within the evaluation window. Just as significantly, a number of clients reported some improvement in their psychological functioning, and the practitioners involved reported positively on their experience of delivering and managing innovative services. The article closes with a discussion of the challenges of evaluating personalised, strengths-based interventions and the possibilities of evidencing empowerment in these cases

Upper Limits on a Stochastic Background of Gravitational Waves

The Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory has performed a third science run with much improved sensitivities of all three interferometers. We present an analysis of approximately 200 hours of data acquired during this run, used to search for a stochastic background of gravitational radiation. We place upper bounds on the energy density stored as gravitational radiation for three different spectral power laws. For the flat spectrum, our limit of Ω_0<8.4×10^(-4) in the 69–156 Hz band is ~10^5 times lower than the previous result in this frequency range

Academic self-concept, gender and single-sex schooling

This paper assesses gender differences in academic self-concept for a cohort of children born in 1958 (the National Child Development Study). We address the question of whether attending single-sex or co-educational schools affected students’ perceptions of their own academic abilities (academic self-concept). Academic selfconcept was found to be highly gendered, even controlling for prior test scores. Boys had higher self-concepts in maths and science, and girls in English. Single-sex schooling reduced the gender gap in self-concept, while selective schooling was linked to lower academic self-concept overall

Measurement of the hadronic photon structure function F_{2}^{γ} at LEP2

The hadronic structure function of the photon F_{2}^{γ} (x, Q²) is measured as a function of Bjorken x and of the photon virtuality Q² using deep-inelastic scattering data taken by the OPAL detector at LEP at e⁺e⁻ centre-of-mass energies from 183 to 209 GeV. Previous OPAL measurements of the x dependence of F_{2}^{γ} are extended to an average Q² of 〈Q²〉=780 GeV² using data in the kinematic range 0.15<x<0.98. The Q² evolution of F_{2}^{γ} is studied for 12.1<〈Q²〉<780 GeV² using three ranges of x. As predicted by QCD, the data show positive scaling violations in F_{2}^{γ} with F_{2}^{γ} (Q²)/α = (0.08±0.02⁺⁰·⁰⁵_₀.₀₃) + (0.13±0.01⁺⁰·⁰¹_₀.₀₁) lnQ², where Q² is in GeV², for the central x region 0.10–0.60. Several parameterisations of F_{2}^{γ} are in qualitative agreement with the measurements whereas the quark-parton model prediction fails to describe the data

Measurement of triple gauge boson couplings from W⁺W⁻ production at LEP energies up to 189 GeV

A measurement of triple gauge boson couplings is presented, based on W-pair data recorded by the OPAL detector at LEP during 1998 at a centre-of-mass energy of 189 GeV with an integrated luminosity of 183 pb⁻¹. After combining with our previous measurements at centre-of-mass energies of 161–183 GeV we obtain κ = 0.97_{-0.16}^{+0.20}, g_{1}^{z} = 0.991_{-0.057}^{+0.060} and λ = -0.110_{-0.055}^{+0.058}, where the errors include both statistical and systematic uncertainties and each coupling is determined by setting the other two couplings to their Standard Model values. These results are consistent with the Standard Model expectations

Measurement of the charm structure function F_{2,c)^{γ} of the photon at LEP

The production of charm quarks is studied in deep-inelastic electron–photon scattering using data recorded by the OPAL detector at LEP at nominal e⁺e⁻ centre-of-mass energies from 183 to 209 GeV. The charm quarks have been identified by full reconstruction of charged D* mesons using their decays into D⁰π with the D⁰ observed in two decay modes with charged particle final states, Kπ and Kπππ. The cross-section σ^{D*} for production of charged D* in the reaction e⁺e⁻→e⁺e⁻D*Χ is measured in a restricted kinematical region using two bins in Bjorken x, 0.00140.1 the perturbative QCD calculation at next-to-leading order agrees perfectly with the measured cross-section. For x<0.1 the measured cross-section is 43.8±14.3±6.3±2.8 pb with a next-to-leading order prediction of 17.0⁺²·⁹_₂.₃ pb