Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations

Recent developments in macroeconomic theory emphasize that transient economic fluctuations can arise as responses to changes in long run factors -- in particular, technological improvements -- rather than short run factors. This contrasts with the view that short run fluctuations and shifts in long run trends are largely unrelated. We examine empirically the effect of shifts in stochastic trends that are common to several macroeconomic series. Using a linear time series model related to a VAR, we consider first a system with GNP, consumption and investment with a single common stochastic trend; we then examine this system augmented by money and prices and an additional stochastic trend. Our results suggest that movements in the "real" stochastic trend account for one-half to two-thirds of the variation in postwar U.S. GNP.

Before You Say Yes: A Planning Guide for Speakers

We need guidelines to help us decide whether to accept invitations to speak, whether to a class on campus or a special interest group outside. As educators and workshop organizers, we could also use suggestions on how to approach potential speakers. This article describes a single-page format that can be used to guide the planning process. Essential elements include contact information, location and organization of the activity, audience, learning goals, expected content, conclusions, and evaluation. Use of this planning sheet can give organization to an often haphazard process of planning, and enhance the potential of achieving the learning goals of a presentation

Testing metallicity indicators at z~1.4 with the gravitationally lensed galaxy CASSOWARY 20

We present X-shooter observations of CASSOWARY 20 (CSWA 20), a star-forming (SFR ~6 Msol/yr) galaxy at z=1.433, magnified by a factor of 11.5 by the gravitational lensing produced by a massive foreground galaxy at z=0.741. We analysed the integrated physical properties of the HII regions of CSWA 20 using temperature- and density-sensitive emission lines. We find the abundance of oxygen to be ~1/7 of solar, while carbon is ~50 times less abundant than in the Sun. The unusually low C/O ratio may be an indication of a particularly rapid timescale of chemical enrichment. The wide wavelength coverage of X-shooter gives us access to five different methods for determining the metallicity of CSWA 20, three based on emission lines from HII regions and two on absorption features formed in the atmospheres of massive stars. All five estimates are in agreement, within the factor of ~2 uncertainty of each method. The interstellar medium of CSWA 20 only partially covers the star-forming region as viewed from our direction; in particular, absorption lines from neutrals and first ions are exceptionally weak. We find evidence for large-scale outflows of the interstellar medium (ISM) with speeds of up 750 km/s, similar to the values measured in other high-z galaxies sustaining much higher rates of star formation.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Fate of diluted bitumen spilled in the coastal waters of British Columbia, Canada.

Abstract There is public concern about the behaviour of spilled diluted bitumen (dilbit) in marine and estuarine waters. We provide a preliminary assessment of the results of laboratory experiments and models, in the context of environmental conditions in the coastal waters of British Columbia. Most dilbit spilled within this region would likely float at the surface and be transported to shore by winds and currents. Fresh dilbit is too light to sink in coastal waters. Highly weathered dilbit could sink where salinity is less than 14, typically only near river mouths and in the top 1–3 m of fjords after heavy rainfall. Subsurface plumes of weathered dilbit could re-emerge at the surface. Sinking oil-particle aggregates are unlikely to form in coastal waters. However, dilbit could be entrained below the surface by wave mixing during storms and to depths of 150 m by coherent mixing in the Haro Strait tidal convergence zone

Effect of nuclear motion on the critical nuclear charge for two-electron atoms

A variational method for calculating the critical nuclear charge, Zc, required for the binding of a nucleus to two electrons is reported. The method is very effective and performs well compared to the traditional variational principle for calculating energy. The critical nuclear charge, which corresponds to the minimum charge required for the atomic system to have at least one bound state, has been calculated for helium-like systems both with infinite and finite nuclear masses. The value of $Z_C=$ 0.911 028 2(3) is in very good agreement with recent values in the literature for two-electron atoms with an infinite nuclear mass. When nuclear motion is considered, the value for Zc varies from 0.911 030 3(2) for that with a nuclear mass of Ne (the largest heliogenic system considered) to 0.921 802 4(4) for a system with the nuclear mass of a positron. In all cases the energy varies smoothly as $Z \rightarrow 0$. It is found that for the finite nuclear mass case, in agreement with previous work for the fixed nucleus mass system, the outer electron remains localised near the nucleus at Z = Zc. Additionally, the electron probability distribution is calculated to determine the behaviour of the electrons at low Z

Adoption of Riparian Forest Buffers on Private Lands in Nebraska, USA

Pesticide and nutrient runoff from agricultural fields is a socio-environmental problem in the Midwestern United States. Riparian forest buffers (RFBs) are a proven conservation practice that effectively manage this problem, though adoption rates are low. A mail survey was conducted to determine differences between adopter and nonadopter characteristics and attitudes with regard to the use of RFBs. Data were collected from 48 RFB adopters and 261 RFB nonadopters in two Nebraska watersheds. Inferential and multivaririate statistics were used to identify differences between adapter status and producer status groups. About half (50.8%) the respondents were nonproducers. Nonproducers are agricultural landowners not farming that make decisions about whether to install conservation practices on their land. Among the adopter respondents, non-farming agricultural landowners (nonproducers, n=25) were as likely to adopt RFHs as producers (n=23). Adopters were more informed about RFBs and willing to accept government payments. Receiving technical and financial assistance was a major key to adoption. The research has identified important opportunities for more effective and targeted RFB extension education programming

A NuSTAR observation of the reflection spectrum of the low mass X-ray binary 4U 1728-34

We report on a simultaneous NuSTAR and Swift observation of the neutron star low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1728-34. We identified and removed four Type I X-ray bursts during the observation in order to study the persistent emission. The continuum spectrum is hard and well described by a black body with $kT=$ 1.5 keV and a cutoff power law with $\Gamma=$ 1.5 and a cutoff temperature of 25 keV. Residuals between 6 and 8 keV provide strong evidence of a broad Fe K$\alpha$ line. By modeling the spectrum with a relativistically blurred reflection model, we find an upper limit for the inner disk radius of $R_{\rm in}\leq2 R_{\rm ISCO}$. Consequently we find that $R_{\rm NS}\leq23$ km, assuming M=1.4{\mbox{\rm\,M_{\mathord\odot}}} and $a=0.15$. We also find an upper limit on the magnetic field of $B\leq2\times10^8$ G.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figure

A classification of soybeans

Publication authorized November 7, 1929.Includes index