Climate Change, Total Factor Productivity, and the Tanzanian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper analyzes the economic impacts of climate change-induced adjustments on the performance of the Tanzanian economy, using a countrywide CGE (computable general equilibrium) model. The general equilibrium framework enables comparison of the effects of climate change to the overall growth of the economy because responsiveness to shocks is likely to depend on the macroeconomic structure of the economy. Effect of overall climate change on agricultural productivity is projected to be relatively limited until approximately 2030 and become worse thereafter. Our simulation results indicate that, despite the projected reduction in agricultural productivity, the negative impacts can potentially be quite limited. This is because the time scales involved and the low starting point of the economy leave ample time for factor substitutability (i.e., replacing reduced land productivity with increased use of capital and labor) and increased overall productivity. This indicates that policies that give farmers opportunity to invest in autonomous climate adaptation, as well as policies that improve the overall performance of the economy, can be as important for reducing the impacts of climate change in the economy as direct government policies for climate adaptation. The study results can inform policymakers when choosing between direct climate-change adaptation policies or measures aimed at strengthening the fundamentals of the economy, as ways of insulating against external shocks.climate change, agriculture, total factor productivity, Tanzania, CGE model

Financial and economic news production practices in Zimbabwe 1980-2018

Ph.D. (Communication Studies)Abstract: Emerging from strong capitalist base, the Zimbabwean economy from 1980 adopted a dual model characterised by a co-existence of capitalism and socialism. An economic identity crisis ensued with socialism largely in rhetoric and capitalism remaining the main economic system. Socialism was conveniently applied where the government stood to benefit, for example keeping already existing state owned enterprises while nationalising those deemed strategic. An economic crisis that was already evident in 1980 intensified in the following decades and still persists. The crisis has only taken different shapes and intensity over the years. The press being an indispensable part of the capitalist system has been there to interpret the economic identity crisis and the economic crises. Surprisingly there is a dearth of studies interrogating how the Zimbabwean financial press has interpreted Zimbabwe’s economic identity crisis and the various economic crises the country has gone through. This study analyses how two financial newspapers, state controlled the Business Herald and privately owned the Financial Gazette, represented the economy from 1980 to 2018. It interrogates how the dual nature of the economy, capitalist and socialist at the same time, has influenced how journalists report the economy. It further interrogates how the wider contextual realities precipitated by the economic schizophrenia influenced news production practices at the two newspapers..

Who are the arbiters of truth? Journalists’ responses to fake news during the coup in Zimbabwe

Abstract: This study is situated at the intersection of fake news and the daily news production practices of mainstream media journalists in Zimbabwe during the November 2017 ‘soft coup’. There is a paucity of research on journalists’ responses to fake news, during military coups, despite increasing research on the influence of fake news on traditional news production practices. Conceptualised on social organisation of news work, the study deploys qualitative interviews with purposively selected political reporters from mainstream daily newspapers, to explore how they responded to fake news during the coup. The study found out that faced with an avalanche of fake news, journalists responded by re-evaluating their news sourcing routines and engaged in collective efforts to identify sources and pressure points of fake news that interfered with their work. Yet, overt reliance on unreliable websites and social media sources to produce news still persisted. Based on this and other related findings, we recommend that journalists should evolve their own platforms and mechanisms to verify and challenge fake news prevalent on social media and websites. We further recommend a “triangular approach” that can, in the long term, reduce the influence of fake news

Chapter 17 - Economics of adaptation

This chapter assesses the literature on the economics of climate change adaptation, building on the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and the increasing role that economic considerations are playing in adaptation decisionmaking and policy. AR4 provided a limited assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation, based on narrow and fragmented sectoral and regional literature (Adger et al, 2007). Substantial advances have been made in the economics of climate change adaptation after AR4

Are we willing to give what it takes? Willingness to pay for climate change adaptation in developing countries

Climate change adaptation is gaining traction as a necessary policy alongside mitigation, particularly for developing countries, many of which lack the resources to adapt. However, funding for developing country adaptation remains woefully inadequate. This paper identifies the burden of responsibility that individuals in the UK are willing to incur in support of adaptation projects in developing countries. Results from a nationally representative survey indicate that UK residents are willing to contribute £27 per year (or a median of £6 per year) towards developing country adaptation (US$30 and$7 using the World Bank’s purchasing power conversion factors). This represents less than one third of the back-of-the-envelope $100-140 per capita per year that the authors estimate would be needed to raise the$70-100bn per year recommended by the World Bank to fund developing country adaptation. Regressions indicate that WTP is driven mostly by a combination of beliefs and perceptions about one’s own knowledge levels, rather than actual knowledge of climate change. We conclude that, to engage the many different audiences that make up the ‘public’, communication efforts must move beyond the simple provision of information and instead, connect with people’s existing values and beliefs

Farmer’s perception of climate change and responsive strategies in three selected provinces of South Africa

The world has responded to climate change phenomenon through two broad response mechanisms (mitigation and adaptation strategies) with the aim of moderating the adverse effects of climate change and/or to exploit any arising beneficial opportunities. The paper aims to examine the trend in climate parameters, farmers’ perception of climate change, constraints faced in production and to identify the strategies (if any) that farmers have adopted to cope with the effects of changing climate. A one-way analysis of variance, percentage analysis and Garrett ranking technique were applied to a set of primary data collected from 150 randomly sampled farmers with the aid of questionnaires in three purposively selected provinces through the months of June to August 2015. The analytical results of obtained recent weather data revealed that the climate parameters have significantly changed over time and these were substantiated by farmers’ experiences. The farmers are engaging in various climate-response strategies, among which, the planting of drought-tolerant varieties is most common. Therefore, it is important to enhance farmers’ access to improved drought-tolerant seeds and efficient irrigation systems. Also observed, is that the lack of awareness of insurance products and inability to afford insurance premiums were the principal reasons majority of the farmers did not have insurance. These present a need to strengthen insurance adoption among farmers through various supporting programmes that may include premium subsidies and media outreach. The paper under one platform provides evidence of changing climate, farmers’ responses towards mitigating perceived adverse effects of the changed climate, and South Africa’s national policy on adaptation and mitigation

Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasts for decision‐making

Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) can support decision‐making and thus help society cope with and prepare for climate variability and change. The demand for understanding the value and benefits of using SCF in decision‐making processes can be associated with different logics. Two of these would be the need to justify public and private investment in the provision of SCF and demonstrating the gains and benefits of using SCF in specific decision‐making contexts. This paper reviews the main factors influencing how SCF is (or can be) valued in supporting decision‐making and the main methods and metrics currently used to perform such valuations. Our review results in four key findings: (a) there is a current emphasis on economic ex ante studies and the quantification of SCF value; (b) there are fundamental differences in how the value of SCF is defined and estimated across methods and approaches; (c) most valuation methods are unable to capture the differential benefits and risks of using SCF across spatiotemporal scales and groups; and (d) there is limited involvement of the decision‐makers in the valuation process. The paper concludes by providing some guiding principles towards more effective valuations of SCF, notably the need for a wider diversity and integration of methodological approaches. These should particularly embrace ex‐post, qualitative, and participatory approaches which allow co‐evaluation with decision‐makers so that more comprehensive and equitable SCF valuations can be developed in future

The Risk and Policy Space for Loss and Damage: Integrating Notions of Distributive and Compensatory Justice with Comprehensive Climate Risk Management

The Warsaw Loss and Damage Mechanism holds high appeal for complementing actions on climate change adaptation and mitigation, and for delivering needed support for tackling intolerable climate related-risks that will neither be addressed by mitigation nor by adaptation. Yet, negotiations under the UNFCCC are caught between demands for climate justice, understood as compensation, for increases in extreme and slow-onset event risk, and the reluctance of other parties to consider Loss and Damage outside of an adaptation framework. Working towards a jointly acceptable position we suggest an actionable way forward for the deliberations may be based on aligning comprehensive climate risk analytics with distributive and compensatory justice considerations. Our proposed framework involves in a short-medium term, needs-based perspective support for climate risk management beyond countries ability to absorb risk. In a medium-longer term, liability-based perspective we particularly suggest to consider liabilities attributable to anthropogenic climate change and associated impacts. We develop the framework based on principles of need and liability, and identify the policy space for Loss and Damage as composed of curative and transformative measures. Transformative measures, such as managed retreat, have already received attention in discussions on comprehensive climate risk management. Curative action is less clearly defined, and more contested. Among others, support for a climate displacement facility could qualify here. For both sets of measures, risk financing (such as ‘climate insurance’) emerges as an entry point for further policy action, as it holds potential for both risk management as well as compensation functions. To quantify the Loss and Damage space for specific countries, we suggest as one option to build on a risk layering approach that segments risk and risk interventions according to risk tolerance. An application to fiscal risks in Bangladesh and at the global scale provides an estimate of countries’ financial support needs for dealing with intolerable layers of flood risk. With many aspects of Loss and Damage being of immaterial nature, we finally suggest that our broad risk and justice approach in principle can also see application to issues such as migration and preservation of cultural heritage

Framing the proposed opposition alliance prior to 31 July 2013 elections: a case of the Herald and Newsday

The study set out to establish why there seemed to be contrasting discourses emanating from The Herald and Newsday’s framing of a proposed opposition alliance prior to the 31 July 2013 elections. While polarisation of the media in Zimbabwe had been documented before, the period in which this study takes place was unique in that the country was in a dispensation of a government of national unity (GNU). The previous polarised environment was expected to have been corrected or at least minimised during this period since all the major political parties were represented in government. A qualitative research paradigm was used for the study where archival research was used to obtain the stories which were purposively sampled and critical discourse analysis was used to analyse data. The study established that there was no break from the past in terms of the pro-ZANU PF and anti-ZANU PF discourse in media framing of the proposed alliance. The state controlled media framed the proposed alliance as a Western project to topple the nationalist ZANU PF while the privately owned media framed the proposed alliance as the most viable project to defeat ZANU PF at the polls

Framing the proposed opposition alliance prior to 31 July 2013 elections: a case of the Herald and Newsday

The study set out to establish why there seemed to be contrasting discourses emanating from The Herald and Newsday’s framing of a proposed opposition alliance prior to the 31 July 2013 elections. While polarisation of the media in Zimbabwe had been documented before, the period in which this study takes place was unique in that the country was in a dispensation of a government of national unity (GNU). The previous polarised environment was expected to have been corrected or at least minimised during this period since all the major political parties were represented in government. A qualitative research paradigm was used for the study where archival research was used to obtain the stories which were purposively sampled and critical discourse analysis was used to analyse data. The study established that there was no break from the past in terms of the pro-ZANU PF and anti-ZANU PF discourse in media framing of the proposed alliance. The state controlled media framed the proposed alliance as a Western project to topple the nationalist ZANU PF while the privately owned media framed the proposed alliance as the most viable project to defeat ZANU PF at the polls