Chronic Poverty and All That: The Measurement of Poverty over Time

We explore how to measure poverty over time, by focusing on trajectories of poverty rather than poverty at a particular point in time. We consider welfare outcomes over a period in time, consisting of a number of spells. We offer a characterization of desirable properties for measuring poverty across these spells, as well as an explicit discussion of three issues. First, should there be scope for compensation so that a poor spell can be compensated for by a non-poor spell? Second, is there scope for discounting or should all spells be equally valued? Third, does the actual sequence of poor spells matter, for example whether they are consecutive or not? We offer a number of measures that implicitly offer different answers to these questions, in a world of certainty. Finally, we also offer an extension towards a forward-looking measure of vulnerability, defined as the threat of poverty over time, that incorporates risk. An application to data from Ethiopia shows that especially the assumption of compensation results in different inference on poverty.poverty, chronic poverty, poverty dynamics, Ethiopia

A Fully Coupled Particle Method For Quasi Incompressible Fluid-Hypoelastic Structure Interactions

We present a general formulation for the simulation of fluid flows in interation with hypoelastic materials using the particle finite element method (PFEM). The fluid is fully coupled with the structures which can undergo large structural displacements, rotations and deformations. The key feature of the PFEM is the use of an updated Lagrangian description to model the motion of nodes (particles) in both the fluid and the structure domains. A mesh connects the nodes defining the discretized domains where the governing equations, expresed in an integral form, are solved as in the standard FEM. The implemented code is used to solve a number of fluid-structure interaction problems including free-fluid surfaces and breaking waves impacting over hypoelastic structures.Fil: Marti, Julio Marcelo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnológico para la Industria Química. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnológico para la Industria Química; ArgentinaFil: Idelsohn, Sergio Rodolfo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnológico para la Industria Química. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnológico para la Industria Química; ArgentinaFil: Limache, Alejandro Cesar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnológico para la Industria Química. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnológico para la Industria Química; ArgentinaFil: Calvo, Nestor Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnológico para la Industria Química. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnológico para la Industria Química; ArgentinaFil: D'elia, Jorge. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnológico para la Industria Química. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnológico para la Industria Química; Argentin

Vulnerability to poverty

Standard poverty analysis makes statements about deprivation after the veil of uncertainty has been lifted. Nonetheless, the term 'vulnerability' has been used as a tool to remark that uncertainty and risk do matter. In this paper, we define 'vulnerability to poverty' as the magnitude of the threat of poverty, measured ex- ante, before uncertainty is resolved. We describe the desirable properties of a vulnerability measure as a set of axioms, and present a family of measures satisfying our desiderata at the individual level. We also propose a family of measures of aggregate vulnerability, a concept which has remained largely unexplored thus far

Measuring individual vulnerability

Standard poverty analysis makes statements about deprivation after the veil of uncertainty has been lifted. This implies that there is no meaningful role for risk as part of an assessment of potentially low states of well-being. In this paper, we introduce a concept of vulnerability, as a threat of poverty, with downside risk at its core. More specifically, we define a vulnerability measure as an assessment of the magnitude of the threat of poverty, measured ex-ante, before uncertainty is resolved. We describe the welfare-economic foundations for desirable properties of a vulnerability measure and assess to what extent some measures used in empirical work abide by them. We also present two families of measures that are fully consistent with our axiomatic approach

Influence of high cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic people on the duration and cost of sick leave: results of the ICARIA study

Aims We investigated the potential influence of a moderate-to-high cardiovascular (CV) risk (CVR) (defined as a Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation model, or SCORE ≥ 4%), in the absence of an established CV disease, on the duration and cost of CV and non-CV sick leave (SL) resulting from common and occupational accidents or diseases. Methods and results We conducted a prospective cohort study on 690 135 workers with a 1-year follow-up and examined CV- and non-CV-related SL episodes. To obtain baseline values, CVR factors were initially assessed at the beginning of the year during routine medical examination. The CVR was calculated with the SCORE charts for all subjects. Moderate-to-high CVR was defined as SCORE ≥ 4%. A baseline SCORE ≥ 4% was associated with a higher risk for long-term CV and non-CV SL, as revealed by follow-up assessment. This translated into an increased cost, estimated at €5 801 464.18 per year. Furthermore, pharmacological treatment for hypertension or hyperlipidaemia was significantly associated with longer SL duration. Conclusion Moderate-to-high CVR in asymptomatic subjects was significantly associated with the duration and cost of CV and non-CV SL. These results constitute the first body of evidence that the SCORE charts can be used to identify people with a non-established CV disease, which might ultimately translate into more lost workdays and therefore increased cost for societ

Las afectaciones al debido proceso en la filiación extramatrimonial en el distrito judicial del Callao periodo 2009 - 2010

El presente trabajo de investigación es de tipo jurídico dogmático que ha tenido por objeto determinar si existen afectaciones al debido proceso en la filiación judicial de paternidad extramatrimonial; posee cuatro capítulos: el Primer Capítulo de Planteamiento de Investigación que contiene la problemática y los objetivos trazados, el Segundo Capítulo de Fundamentos Teóricos que desarrolla las principales instituciones jurídicas analizadas como El Derecho a la Filiación, El Proceso de Filiación Extramatrimonial, La Relación Paterno Filial, La Teoría del Debido Proceso, La Tutela Jurisdiccional Efectiva y La Competencia, así como el marco normativo, generalidades, marco histórico y conceptual; el Tercer Capítulo referido a la Metodología de ésta Investigación, la cual es de Tipo Descriptivo - Explicativo, con método Cuanti - Cualitativo (Mixto) y el Cuarto Capítulo referido al Análisis de Resultados donde se describe e interpreta los resultados obtenidos, se comprobó la hipótesis, se establecieron las conclusiones y se efectuaron las recomendaciones

Efficacy of deep dry needling on latent myofascial trigger points in older adults with nonspecific shoulder pain: a randomized, controlled clinical trial pilot study

Background: Nonspecific shoulder pain has a high prevalence in older adults and causes functional alterations. Furthermore, there are difficulties in establishing a clinical diagnosis, effective treatments are lacking, and little evidence has been found regarding the use of invasive physical therapy techniques in this age group. Purpose: To determine the efficacy of a single physical therapy intervention with deep dry needling (DDN) on latent and active myofascial trigger points (MTrPs) in older adults with nonspecific shoulder pain. Methods: This pilot study is a single-blind, randomized, controlled clinical trial that included 20 participants, aged 65 years and older, who were diagnosed with nonspecific shoulder pain. The study was approved by the Clinical Research Ethics Committee of the area. Participants were recruited at their homes or at a care center and were randomly assigned into either an experimental group (n = 10), which received a session of DDN on 1 active and 1 latent MTrP of the infraspinatus muscle, or a control group (n = 10), which received a session of DDN on only 1 active MTrP. A blind examiner assessed the pain intensity, pain pressure threshold on the anterior deltoid, and extensor carpi radialis brevis muscles and grip strength before, immediately after, and 1 week after the intervention. Results: Statistically significant differences (P < .05) in the pressure pain thresholds (PPTs) of the extensor carpi radialis brevis were found in the experimental group in both posttreatment assessments. Moreover, the effect size values (d Cohen) varied from small for grip strength (0.017-0.36) to moderate for the pain intensity (0.46-0.78) and PPT in the anterior deltoid (0.49-0.66) and to large for the PPT in the extensor carpi radialis brevis (1.06-1.58). Conclusions: A single physical therapy intervention with DDN on 1 latent MTrP, in conjunction with 1 active MTrP, in the infraspinatus muscle may increase the PPT of the extensor carpi radialis brevis muscle area immediately following and 1 week after the intervention in older adults with nonspecific shoulder pain

Clinical validation of the EndoPredict test in node-positive, chemotherapy-treated ER+/HER2− breast cancer patients: results from the GEICAM 9906 trial

INTRODUCTION: EndoPredict (EP) is an RNA-based multigene test that predicts the likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with estrogen receptor-positive (ER+), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–negative (HER2−) breast cancer (BC) who are being treated with adjuvant endocrine therapy. Herein we report the prospective-retrospective clinical validation of EP in the node-positive, chemotherapy-treated, ER+/HER2− BC patients in the GEICAM 9906 trial. METHODS: The patients (N = 1,246) were treated either with six cycles of fluorouracil, epirubicin and cyclophosphamide (FEC) or with four cycles of FEC followed by eight weekly courses of paclitaxel (FEC-P), as well as with endocrine therapy if they had hormone receptor–positive disease. The patients were assigned to EP risk categories (low or high) according to prespecified cutoff levels. The primary endpoint in the clinical validation of EP was distant metastasis-free survival (MFS). Metastasis rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariate analysis was performed using Cox regression. RESULTS: The molecular EP score and the combined molecular and clinical EPclin score were successfully determined in 555 ER+/HER2− tumors from the 800 available samples in the GEICAM 9906 trial. On the basis of the EP, 25% of patients (n = 141) were classified as low risk. MFS was 93% in the low-risk group and 70% in the high-risk group (absolute risk reduction = 23%, hazard ratio (HR) = 4.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.5 to 9.5; P < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis showed that, in this ER+/HER2− cohort, EP results are an independent prognostic parameter after adjustment for age, grade, lymph node status, tumor size, treatment arm, ER and progesterone receptor (PR) status and proliferation index (Ki67). Using the predefined EPclin score, 13% of patients (n = 74) were assigned to the low-risk group, who had excellent outcomes and no distant recurrence events (absolute risk reduction vs high-risk group = 28%; P < 0.0001). Furthermore, EP was prognostic in premenopausal patients (HR = 6.7, 95% CI = 2.4 to 18.3; P = 0.0002) and postmenopausal patients (HR = 3.3, 95% CI = 1.3 to 8.5; P = 0.0109). There were no statistically significant differences in MFS between treatment arms (FEC vs FEC-P) in either the high- or low-risk groups. The interaction test results between the chemotherapy arm and the EP score were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: EP is an independent prognostic parameter in node-positive, ER+/HER2− BC patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy followed by hormone therapy. EP did not predict a greater efficacy of FEC-P compared to FEC alone

A new methodology for uncertainties characterization in combustion diagnosis and thermodynamic modelling

Combustion diagnosis based on in-cylinder pressure signals as well as 0D thermodynamic modelling, are widely used to study and optimize the combustion in reciprocating engines. Both approaches share some uncertainties regarding the sub-models and the experimental installation that, for the sake of accuracy, must be reduced as much as possible in order to obtain reliable results. A methodology, based on the sensitivity effect of such uncertainties on heat release and simulated pressure, is proposed to adjust their values. The methodology is capable of identifying the separate influence of each parameter and to provide a set of values thanks to the Multi-Variable linear regression (MLR) in motoring conditions. The method is flexible enough to deal with different number of uncertainties and can be applied to different engines and thermodynamic models. The final results of the adjustment are validated in combustion conditions, showing an improvement of the apparent combustion efficiency of about 7% with respect to the reference values.The support of the Generalitat Valenciana (BEST/2010/145) is greatly acknowledged.Benajes Calvo, JV.; Olmeda González, PC.; Martín Díaz, J.; Carreño Arango, R. (2014). A new methodology for uncertainties characterization in combustion diagnosis and thermodynamic modelling. Applied Thermal Engineering. 71(1):389-399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2014.07.010S38939971