A joint probability approach to flood frequency estimation using Monte Carlo simulation

In the UK, flood estimation using event based rainfall–runoff modelling currently assigns pre-defined design values to the input variables which control the size of the flow events, apart from the rainfall magnitude which is treated as a random variable. The use of design values, rather than allowing the variables to be described by their full probability distribution, is a practical simplification but may lead to biases in the output flood magnitudes. The present study simulates a large number of flow events using sets of input variables from distributions fitted to observed event data, taking into account seasonality. These simulated datasets are used for running a rainfall-runoff model, and a frequency analysis is applied to the peaks of the output flow hydrographs. The simulated inputs are the rainfall intensity and duration, and the soil moisture deficit (SMD) and initial river flow at the beginning of the rainfall event. An inter-event arrival time is simulated so that a series of events is obtained. The initial conditions of SMD and river flow of each event are made dependent on the (simulated) time elapsed since the previous event, and on the SMD at the end of the previous event

Borba protiv kampanja dezinformiranja i pogrešnog informiranja koje provode norm enterpreneurs, a usmjerene su na LGBTI+ zajednicu u Europi

With ample evidence that foreign state actors and non-state norm entrepreneurs are engaged in misinformation and disinformation campaigns challenging the European Union’s human rights framework on LGBT+, this study analyses the narratives that these actors disseminate. Based on two methods – a standard literature review of academic and “grey” literature, as well as complementary analysis of entries in the EUvsDisinfo database – the study identifies four main narratives that can be attributed to or are actively sponsored by non-European actors: 1) Opposing gender ideology and protecting God’s order, 2) Heteroactivism and the protection of the rights of the “natural” family, 3) LGBT+ rights as Western colonialism, and 4) LGBT+ rights as a threat to the rights of children. Even though EU’s strong protection of freedom of speech makes it challenging to address misinformation and disinformation that falls outside hate-speech legislation, this paper argues that exploring the following counter measures could be worthwhile: 1) harmonization of European legal frameworks, 2) financial scrutiny and 3) strengthened automatic detection, editorial policies, and community flagging, as well as the capacity to systematically deal with misinformation and disinformation campaign targeting LGBT+ across digital spaces in Europe.Uz niz dokaza da su strani akteri i nedržavni borci za norme uključeni u širenje netočnih informacija i dezinformacija koje narušavaju okvir ljudskih prava Europske unije za LGBT+ osobe, ova studija analizira narative koje ti akteri zagovaraju. Na temelju dviju metoda – standardnog pregleda akademske i sive literature te komplementarne analize unosa u bazi podataka EUvsDisinfo – studija identificira četiri glavna narativa koji se mogu pripisati neeuropskim akterima ili koje isti aktivno promoviraju: 1) suprotstavljanje rodnoj ideologiji i zaštita Božanskog poretka, 2) heteroaktivizam i zaštita prava „prirodne“ obitelji, 3) LGBT+ prava kao zapadni kolonijalizam i 4) LGBT+ prava kao prijetnja pravima djece. Iako snažna zaštita slobode govora u EU-u predstavlja izazov kad je u pitanju suzbijanje netočnih informacija i dezinformacija koje ne spadaju u okvire zakonodavstva o govoru mržnje, ovaj rad tvrdi da bi istraživanje sljedećih protumjera moglo biti vrijedno truda: 1) harmonizacija europskih pravnih okvira, 2) poman financijski nadzor i 3) pojačano automatsko otkrivanje, uređivačke politike i označavanje zajednice, kao i sposobnost za sustavno otklanjanje netočnih informacija i dezinformacija usmjerenih na LGBT+ osobe u digitalnim prostorima Europe

Seasonal river flow forecasts for the United Kingdom using persistence and historical analogues

Seasonal river flow forecasting methods are currently being developed for country-wide application in the United Kingdom, using several different techniques. In this paper, methods based on persistence and historical flow analogues are presented. New one- and three-month forecasts are made each month using monthly river flows at 93 stations with records at least 30 years long. The method that performs best is selected for each separate month, catchment and forecast duration. The forecasts based on persistence of the previous month’s flow generally outperform the analogues approach, particularly for slowly responding catchments (mainly in the southeast) with large underground water storage in aquifers. Historical analogues make a useful contribution to the forecasts in the northwest of the country. Correlations between hindcasts and observations that exceed 0.23 and are significant at the 5% level for a one-sided test are found for 81% (70%) of the station-month combinations for the one-month (three-month) forecast

From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators

Drought monitoring and early warning (M & EW) systems are a crucial component of drought preparedness. M & EW systems typically make use of drought indicators such as the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), but such indicators are not widely used in the UK. More generally, such tools have not been well developed for hydrological (i.e. streamflow) drought. To fill these research gaps, this paper characterises meteorological and hydrological droughts, and the propagation from one to the other, using the SPI and the related Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI), with the objective of improving understanding of the drought hazard in the UK. SPI and SSI time series were calculated for 121 near-natural catchments in the UK for accumulation periods of 1–24 months. From these time series, drought events were identified and for each event, the duration and severity were calculated. The relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought was examined by cross-correlating the 1-month SSI with various SPI accumulation periods. Finally, the influence of climate and catchment properties on the hydrological drought characteristics and propagation was investigated. Results showed that at short accumulation periods meteorological drought characteristics showed little spatial variability, whilst hydrological drought characteristics showed fewer but longer and more severe droughts in the south and east than in the north and west of the UK. Propagation characteristics showed a similar spatial pattern with catchments underlain by productive aquifers, mostly in the south and east, having longer SPI accumulation periods strongly correlated with the 1-month SSI. For catchments in the north and west of the UK, which typically have little catchment storage, standard-period average annual rainfall was strongly correlated with hydrological drought and propagation characteristics. However, in the south and east, catchment properties describing storage (such as base flow index, the percentage of highly productive fractured rock and typical soil wetness) were more influential on hydrological drought characteristics. This knowledge forms a basis for more informed application of standardised indicators in the UK in the future, which could aid in the development of improved M & EW systems. Given the lack of studies applying standardised indicators to hydrological droughts, and the diversity of catchment types encompassed here, the findings could prove valuable for enhancing the hydrological aspects of drought M & EW systems in both the UK and elsewhere

Invandrares tillfredställelse och upplevelse av sina aktiviteter

Bakgrund: Sveriges invandring har förändrats över tid och vi möter allt fler människor som är födda i ett annat land. För att kunna hjälpa dem som invandrar till Sverige idag är det viktigt att veta hur de som varit här ett tag upplever sin vardag. Det kan antas att det finns en risk för att invandrares delaktighet och möjlighet till aktivitet blir begränsad då de inte längre befinner sig i sin normala miljö, där språket kan vara ett hinder. Syfte: Syftet med studien var att undersöka vilka dagliga aktiviteter invandrare i Sverige som deltar i SFI (svenska för invandrare) utför och hur de upplever sin balans och tillfredställelse med dessa aktiviteter samt hur de skattar sin hälsa. Metod: Studien inkluderade 15 deltagare som läste SFI i en stad i södra Sverige. Data samlades in genom ett intervjubaserat bedömningsinstrument (SDO-B) och två öppna frågor samt en skattningsfråga kring upplevd hälsa. Insamlad kvalitativ data analyserades med en manifest innehållsanalys. Kvantitativa data sammanställdes så att det gav en deskriptiv bild av deltagarnas tillfredställelse med sina aktiviteter och deras hälsa. Resultat: Deltagarna upplevde sig generellt sätt att ha balans och tillfredställelse i sin vardag och det fanns en spridning av dem som hade för lite och de som hade för mycket att göra. Deltagarna utförde de flesta av de aktiviteter inom arbets- och hem och hushållsarbete som SDO-B tar upp men de aktiviteter som förekom minst var inom området fritid. Det största hindret i deltagarnas vardag var bristande kunskap i svenska och dålig ekonomi. Slutsats: Deltagarna var nöjda med att studera SFI men mindre tillfredsställda med att inte vara aktiva i någon form av hobby. Fler studier behövs om invandrares vardagsaktiviteter för att de ska få ännu bättre förutsättningar i framtiden

Oceanic conditions associated with Euro-Atlantic high pressure and UK drought

Persistent atmospheric high pressures can lead to long-lasting droughts and heatwaves with severe societal and environmental impacts, as evident in summer 2018 in Europe. It is known that oceanic and atmospheric features connected with the tropical Pacific influence the atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Atlantic/European sector leading to blocking high pressures in the cold season. Here we show that in the warm season, different combinations of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are associated with distinctly different atmospheric circulation patterns over northwest Europe some three months later. While most studies are restricted to atmospheric variables, for the UK we also investigate the hydrological impact and find that the effect of the preferred seasonal storm tracks is more clearly seen in regional streamflow observations than in precipitation, presumably because streamflows integrate the influences of precipitation and evapotranspiration. These relationships open up the possibility of skilful statistical forecasts for much of spring to autumn, which will usefully complement the currently available skilful winter forecasts based on general circulation models. Our results deliver new understanding of the truly global driving processes of UK droughts and highlight the potential for improved early warning for the wider European domain

Gene array identification of Ipf1/Pdx1-/- regulated genes in pancreatic progenitor cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The homeodomain transcription factor IPF1/PDX1 exerts a dual role in the pancreas; <it>Ipf1/Pdx1 </it>global null mutants fail to develop a pancreas whereas conditional inactivation of <it>Ipf1/Pdx1 </it>in β-cells leads to impaired β-cell function and diabetes. Although several putative target genes have been linked to the β-cell function of <it>Ipf1/Pdx1</it>, relatively little is known with respect to genes regulated by IPF1/PDX1 in early pancreatic progenitor cells.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Microarray analyses identified a total of 111 genes that were differentially expressed in e10.5 pancreatic buds of <it>Ipf1/Pdx1</it>^-/-embryos. The expression of one of these, <it>Spondin 1</it>, which encodes an extracellular matrix protein, has not previously been described in the pancreas. Quantitative real-time RT-PCR analyses and immunohistochemical analyses also revealed that the expression of <it>FgfR2IIIb</it>, that encodes the receptor for FGF10, was down-regulated in <it>Ipf1/Pdx1</it>^-/-pancreatic progenitor cells.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This microarray analysis has identified a number of candidate genes that are differentially expressed in <it>Ipf1/Pdx1</it>^-/-pancreatic buds. Several of the differentially expressed genes were known to be important for pancreatic progenitor cell proliferation and differentiation whereas others have not previously been associated with pancreatic development.</p

Lack of interchangeability between visual analogue and verbal rating pain scales: a cross sectional description of pain etiology groups

BACKGROUND: Rating scales like the visual analogue scale, VAS, and the verbal rating scale, VRS, are often used for pain assessments both in clinical work and in research, despite the lack of a gold standard. Interchangeability of recorded pain intensity captured in the two scales has been discussed earlier, but not in conjunction with taking the influence of pain etiology into consideration. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, patients with their pain classified according to its etiology (chronic/idiopathic, nociceptive and neuropathic pain) were consecutively recruited for self-assessment of their actual pain intensity using a continuous VAS, 0–100, and a discrete five-category VRS. The data were analyzed with a non-parametric statistical method, suitable for comparison of scales with different numbers of response alternatives. RESULTS: An overlapping of the VAS records relative the VRS categories was seen in all pain groups. Cut-off positions for the VAS records related to the VRS categories were found lower in patients with nociceptive pain relative patients suffering from chronic/idiopathic and neuropathic pain. When comparing the VAS records transformed into an equidistant five-category scale with the VRS records, systematic disagreements between the scales was shown in all groups. Furthermore, in the test-retest a low percentage of the patients agreed to the same pain level on the VAS while the opposite hold for the VRS. CONCLUSION: The pain intensity assessments on VAS and VRS are in this study, not interchangeable due to overlap of pain records between the two scales, systematic disagreements when comparing the two scales and a low percentage intra-scale agreement. Furthermore, the lower VAS cut-off positions relative the VRS labels indicate different meaning of the rated pain intensity depending on pain etiology. It is also indicated that the scales have non-linear properties and that the two scales probably have different interpretation. Our findings are in favor of using the VRS in pain intensity assessments but if still the VAS is preferred, the VAS data should be analyzed as continuous using statistical methods suitable for ordinal data. Furthermore, our findings indicate a risk to over or under estimate the patient's perceived pain when interpreting condensed VAS data