A comprehensive framework for assessing the accuracy and uncertainty of global above-ground biomass maps

Over the past decade, several global maps of above-ground biomass (AGB) have been produced, but they exhibit significant differences that reduce their value for climate and carbon cycle modelling, and also for national estimates of forest carbon stocks and their changes. The number of such maps is anticipated to increase because of new satellite missions dedicated to measuring AGB. Objective and consistent methods to estimate the accuracy and uncertainty of AGB maps are therefore urgently needed. This paper develops and demonstrates a framework aimed at achieving this. The framework provides a means to compare AGB maps with AGB estimates from a global collection of National Forest Inventories and research plots that accounts for the uncertainty of plot AGB errors. This uncertainty depends strongly on plot size, and is dominated by the combined errors from tree measurements and allometric models (inter-quartile range of their standard deviation (SD) = 30–151 Mg ha−1). Estimates of sampling errors are also important, especially in the most common case where plots are smaller than map pixels (SD = 16–44 Mg ha−1). Plot uncertainty estimates are used to calculate the minimum-variance linear unbiased estimates of the mean forest AGB when averaged to 0.1∘. These are used to assess four AGB maps: Baccini (2000), GEOCARBON (2008), GlobBiomass (2010) and CCI Biomass (2017). Map bias, estimated using the differences between the plot and 0.1∘ map averages, is modelled using random forest regression driven by variables shown to affect the map estimates. The bias model is particularly sensitive to the map estimate of AGB and tree cover, and exhibits strong regional biases. Variograms indicate that AGB map errors have map-specific spatial correlation up to a range of 50–104 km, which increases the variance of spatially aggregated AGB map estimates compared to when pixel errors are independent. After bias adjustment, total pantropical AGB and its associated SD are derived for the four map epochs. This total becomes closer to the value estimated by the Forest Resources Assessment after every epoch and shows a similar decrease. The framework is applicable to both local and global-scale analysis, and is available at https://github.com/arnanaraza/PlotToMap. Our study therefore constitutes a major step towards improved AGB map validation and improvement

A comprehensive framework for assessing the accuracy and uncertainty of global above-ground biomass maps

International audienceOver the past decade, several global maps of above-ground biomass (AGB) have been produced, but they exhibit significant differences that reduce their value for climate and carbon cycle modelling, and also for national estimates of forest carbon stocks and their changes. The number of such maps is anticipated to increase because of new satellite missions dedicated to measuring AGB. Objective and consistent methods to estimate the accuracy and uncertainty of AGB maps are therefore urgently needed. This paper develops and demonstrates a framework aimed at achieving this. The framework provides a means to compare AGB maps with AGB estimates from a global collection of National Forest Inventories and research plots that accounts for the uncertainty of plot AGB errors. This uncertainty depends strongly on plot size, and is dominated by the combined errors from tree measurements and allometric models (inter-quartile range of their standard deviation (SD) = 30–151 Mg ha−1). Estimates of sampling errors are also important, especially in the most common case where plots are smaller than map pixels (SD = 16–44 Mg ha−1). Plot uncertainty estimates are used to calculate the minimum-variance linear unbiased estimates of the mean forest AGB when averaged to 0.1∘. These are used to assess four AGB maps: Baccini (2000), GEOCARBON (2008), GlobBiomass (2010) and CCI Biomass (2017). Map bias, estimated using the differences between the plot and 0.1∘ map averages, is modelled using random forest regression driven by variables shown to affect the map estimates. The bias model is particularly sensitive to the map estimate of AGB and tree cover, and exhibits strong regional biases. Variograms indicate that AGB map errors have map-specific spatial correlation up to a range of 50–104 km, which increases the variance of spatially aggregated AGB map estimates compared to when pixel errors are independent. After bias adjustment, total pantropical AGB and its associated SD are derived for the four map epochs. This total becomes closer to the value estimated by the Forest Resources Assessment after every epoch and shows a similar decrease. The framework is applicable to both local and global-scale analysis, and is available at https://github.com/arnanaraza/PlotToMap. Our study therefore constitutes a major step towards improved AGB map validation and improvement

Global estimation of above-ground biomass from spaceborne C-band scatterometer observations aided by LiDAR metrics of vegetation structure

The backscattered power recorded by a spaceborne scatterometer operating at C-band is sensitive to land surface parameters and is operationally used by some global remote sensing services, e.g., to estimate soil moisture. The estimation of forest variables, in particular above-ground biomass (AGB), from scatterometer data instead was seldom explored. Given the availability of multi-decadal sets of scatterometer observations from space, it is of interest to address the contribution of C-band scatterometer data to the quantification of carbon stocks stored in forests even if the spatial resolution of spaceborne scatterometers is very coarse. In this paper, we investigated the prospects of AGB estimation using backscatter observations by the MetOp Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) with a spatial resolution of 0.25°. For this study, ASCAT observations acquired in 2010 were used to be contemporary with AGB datasets selected to benchmark the performance of the estimation. A Water Cloud Model that integrates two allometric equations derived from spaceborne LiDAR data reproduced the relationship between observations of radar backscatter as a function of AGB. Estimates of AGB from individual observations were then combined with a weighted average to reduce uncertainties. Finally, a correction was introduced to compensate for the offset introduced by sloped terrain and surfaces not covered by woody vegetation on the AGB estimate of a pixel. Uncertainties associated with the scatterometer observations, and the modelling framework were propagated to obtain per-pixel values of the standard deviation of an AGB estimate. The proposed method explains much of the variance in AGB estimates when compared to measurements from inventory data (R2 = 0.72) and generated unbiased estimates globally (bias: −3.3 Mg⋅ha−1). Nonetheless, the discrepancy between estimated and plot-based AGB values tended to increase for decreasing biomass level from 20% to 60% of the reference AGB level. A further assessment related to global stocks indicated that the value estimated from the scatterometer dataset (596 Pg, 95% of which 563 Pg stored in forest land) was in line with two published estimates based on forest inventory data only (571 Pg and 600 Pg, respectively). Despite the coarse spatial resolution, our results indicate that C-band scatterometer observations from space can contribute to the characterization of terrestrial biomass pools. The record of observations starting in the early 1990s may provide an unprecedented way to look at long-term forest dynamics as well as to constrain the strength of carbon-climate cycle feedback simulated by Earth System models