All at sea: sustaining livelihoods through maritime tourism in Croatia

This paper explores the development of maritime tourism activities undertaken by a Seafaring Croatian community, largely in response to changing economic circumstances. Empirical data gathered in May 2013 from narrative stories given by boat Captains and questionnaires underpin the case study. The paper argues that in studying community livelihoods, the historical context of that community is an important factor in determining the success of tourism development and any policy formation and intervention. The sustainable livelihoods framework provides the bases for assessing the potential for success. The five factors of SL approach (financial capital, human capital, physical and social aspect, and natural capital) have proved to be an essential framework and toolkit for tourism development in the observed community. Despite evident on-going challenges, maritime tourism activities provide a commercially viable way of life in this community

Destination Climate Adaptation

A key element in the product mix of destinations is climate. Climate represents a critical part of a destination’s economic and resource base such that changes in climate will trigger human responses in terms of demand and the type of activities that the climate will support. This threatens the competitiveness, sustainability, and economic viability of destinations. This research note focuses on destination adaptation to climate change that is anticipatory not reactive, based on projecting future climate scenarios for a destination and then assessing the tourism products that the future climate will support. It outlines an original data-driven approach to adaptation that is generalizable to other destinations. The research note describes an exploratory research collaboration in Croatia between tourism and climate scientists that allows, first, the modeling of a destination’s projected climate conditions and, second, the products and activities that can be supported by these climate scenarios using climate indices for tourism

Evaluating the risk for Usutu virus circulation in Europe : comparison of environmental niche models and epidemiological models

Abstract Background Usutu virus (USUV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus, reported in many countries of Africa and Europe, with an increasing spatial distribution and host range. Recent outbreaks leading to regional declines of European common blackbird (Turdus merula) populations and a rising number of human cases emphasize the need for increased awareness and spatial risk assessment. Methods Modelling approaches in ecology and epidemiology differ substantially in their algorithms, potentially resulting in diverging model outputs. Therefore, we implemented a parallel approach incorporating two commonly applied modelling techniques: (1) Maxent, a correlation-based environmental niche model and (2) a mechanistic epidemiological susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. Across Europe, surveillance data of USUV-positive birds from 2003 to 2016 was acquired to train the environmental niche model and to serve as test cases for the SEIR model. The SEIR model is mainly driven by daily mean temperature and calculates the basic reproduction number R0. The environmental niche model was run with long-term bio-climatic variables derived from the same source in order to estimate climatic suitability. Results Large areas across Europe are currently suitable for USUV transmission. Both models show patterns of high risk for USUV in parts of France, in the Pannonian Basin as well as northern Italy. The environmental niche model depicts the current situation better, but with USUV still being in an invasive stage there is a chance for under-estimation of risk. Areas where transmission occurred are mostly predicted correctly by the SEIR model, but it mostly fails to resolve the temporal dynamics of USUV events. High R0 values predicted by the SEIR model in areas without evidence for real-life transmission suggest that it may tend towards over-estimation of risk. Conclusions The results from our parallel-model approach highlight that relying on a single model for assessing vector-borne disease risk may lead to incomplete conclusions. Utilizing different modelling approaches is thus crucial for risk-assessment of under-studied emerging pathogens like USUV

Maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring overweight : is there a dose–response relationship? An individual patient data meta-analysis

We want to thank the funders of the individual studies: the UK Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust (Grant ref: 102215/2/13/2) and the University of Bristol, the Danish National Research Foundation, Pharmacy Foundation, the March of Dimes Birth Defects Foundation, the Augustinus Foundation, and the Health Foundation, the US NICHD (contracts no. 1-HD-4-2803 and no. 1-HD-1-3127, R01 HD HD034568), the NHMRC, the CNPq (Portuguese acronym for the National Research Council—grant 523474/96-2) and FAPESP (Portuguese acronym for the São Paulo State Research Council—grant 00/0908-7). We would like to thank the participating families of all studies for the use of data. For the ASPAC study, we want to thank the midwives for their help in recruiting families, and the whole ALSPAC team, which includes interviewers, computer and laboratory technicians, clerical workers, research scientists, volunteers, managers, receptionists, and nurses. This work was supported by the Deutschen Forschungsgesellschaft (German Research Foundation, DFG) [KR 1926/9-1, KU1443/4-1]. Dr. Gilman’s contribution was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development.Peer reviewedPostprin

Prevalence of Coxiella burnetii antibodies among febrile patients in Croatia, 2008-2010

Despite the widespread distribution of Q fever, the prevalence in humans is not accurately known, because many infected people seroconvert without symptoms or with a mild febrile disease. The aim of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of Q fever in different regions of Croatia. During a 2-year period (2008-2010), serum samples from 552 febrile patients with prolonged cough aged 1-88 were tested for the presence of Coxiella burnetii antibodies by using indirect immunofluorescent assay. Sera from 27.5% patients showed IgG antibodies. Serological evidence of C. burnetii infection was found in patients from all parts of Croatia. Seroprevalence rates significantly differed among regions from 21.5% to 41.2% (p=0.001). Men were more often seropositive (31.6%) than women (22.2%; p=0.016). According to age, a progressive increase in the IgG seropositivity rates was observed as ranging from 6.7% in children less than 10 years of age to 39.2% in patients aged 40-49 (p=0.001). Above the age of 50, the IgG seroprevalence remained stable. Patients from rural areas were more often seropositive than patients from urban areas (40.8% vs. 19%), p<0.001). Acute Q fever was confirmed in 5.8% of patients. Cases occurred throughout the year. A majority of cases were reported during summer months